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Mikael Konutgan

dblp:281/7137 · DBLP profile ↗
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2ranked-venue papers
0as first author
2since 2021 · last 2021
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 2 · 2 since 2021Databases, data management, data science and information retrieval · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 67% Optimization for machine learning · 33%
Interdisciplinary, comprehensive, and emerging computing
1 paper
Computational social science and digital humanities · 100%
Databases, data mining, and information retrieval
1 paper
Data mining · 100%

Topics — the 6 heaviest of 6, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning
causal inference
0.512021
Machine Learning for Variance Reduction in Online Experiments · NeurIPS 2021
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › causal inference › causal effect estimation
treatment effect estimation
0.512021
Machine Learning for Variance Reduction in Online Experiments · NeurIPS 2021
Machine learning › Optimization for machine learning
variance reduction
0.512021
Machine Learning for Variance Reduction in Online Experiments · NeurIPS 2021
Computational social science and digital humanities › online controlled experiments
network experimentation
0.512021
Network Experimentation at Scale · KDD 2021
Computational social science and digital humanities › online controlled experiments
online field experiment
0.512021
Network Experimentation at Scale · KDD 2021
Data mining
causal inference
0.112021
Network Experimentation at Scale · KDD 2021

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

variance reduction · 1.0cluster-based regression adjustment · 1.0machine learning regression adjustment · 0.5cross-fitting · 0.5
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2021 Network Experimentation at Scale
abstract
We describe our network experimentation framework, deployed at Facebook, which accounts for interference between experimental units. We document this system, including the design and estimation procedures, and detail insights we have gained from the many experiments that have used this system at scale. In our estimation procedure, we introduce a cluster-based regression adjustment that substantially improves precision for estimating global treatment effects, as well as a procedure to test for interference. With our regression adjustment, we find that imbalanced clusters can better account for interference than balanced clusters without sacrificing accuracy. In addition, we show that logging exposure to a treatment can result in additional variance reduction. Interference is a widely acknowledged issue in online field experiments, yet there is less evidence from real-world experiments demonstrating interference in online settings. We fill this gap by describing two case studies that capture significant network effects and highlight the value of this experimentation framework.
Brian Karrer, Monica Bhole, Tyrone Palmer, Charlie Gelman, Mikael Konutgan
KDD7
2021 Machine Learning for Variance Reduction in Online Experiments
abstract
We consider the problem of variance reduction in randomized controlled trials, through the use of covariates correlated with the outcome but independent of the treatment. We propose a machine learning regression-adjusted treatment effect estimator, which we call MLRATE. MLRATE uses machine learning predictors of the outcome to reduce estimator variance. It employs cross-fitting to avoid overfitting biases, and we prove consistency and asymptotic normality under general conditions. MLRATE is robust to poor predictions from the machine learning step: if the predictions are uncorrelated with the outcomes, the estimator performs asymptotically no worse than the standard difference-in-means estimator, while if predictions are highly correlated with outcomes, the efficiency gains are large. In A/A tests, for a set of 48 outcome metrics commonly monitored in Facebook experiments, the estimator has over $70\%$ lower variance than the simple difference-in-means estimator, and about $19\%$ lower variance than the common univariate procedure which adjusts only for pre-experiment values of the outcome.
Yongyi Guo, Dominic Coey, Mikael Konutgan, Chris Schoener
NeurIPS3