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Amilcar Velez

dblp:290/8370 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
1since 2021 · last 2022
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1 · 1 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 100%

Topics — the 4 heaviest of 4, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference
approximate bayesian inference
0.612022
On the Robustness to Misspecification of α-posteriors and Their Variational Approximations · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2022
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference
bayesian asymptotics
0.612022
On the Robustness to Misspecification of α-posteriors and Their Variational Approximations · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2022
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference › bayesian asymptotics
bernstein-von mises theorem
0.612022
On the Robustness to Misspecification of α-posteriors and Their Variational Approximations · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2022
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › probabilistic inference › approximate inference
variational inference
0.612022
On the Robustness to Misspecification of α-posteriors and Their Variational Approximations · J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2022

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

total variation distance · 0.6kullback-leibler divergence · 0.6
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2022 On the Robustness to Misspecification of α-posteriors and Their Variational Approximations
abstract
$\alpha$-posteriors and their variational approximations distort standard posterior inference by downweighting the likelihood and introducing variational approximation errors. We show that such distortions, if tuned appropriately, reduce the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence from the true, but perhaps infeasible, posterior distribution when there is potential parametric model misspecification. To make this point, we derive a Bernstein--von Mises theorem showing convergence in total variation distance of $\alpha$-posteriors and their variational approximations to limiting Gaussian distributions. We use these limiting distributions to evaluate the KL divergence between true and reported posteriors. We show that the KL divergence is minimized by choosing $\alpha$ strictly smaller than one, assuming there is a vanishingly small probability of model misspecification. The optimized value of $\alpha$ becomes smaller as the misspecification becomes more severe. The optimized KL divergence increases logarithmically in the magnitude of misspecification and not linearly as with the usual posterior. Moreover, the optimized variational approximations of $\alpha$-posteriors can induce additional robustness to model misspecification beyond that obtained by optimally downweighting the likelihood.
Marco Avella-Medina, José Luis Montiel Olea, Cynthia Rush, Amilcar Velez
J. Mach. Learn. Res.4