Predictive models are traditionally optimized independently of their use in downstream decision-based optimization. The ‘smart, predict then optimize’ (SPO) framework addresses this shortcoming by optimizing predictive models in order to minimize the final downstream decision loss. To date, several local first-order methods and convex approximations have been proposed. These methods have proven to be effective in practice, however, it remains generally unclear as to how close these local solutions are to global optimality. In this paper, we cast the SPO problem as a bi-level program and apply Symbolic Variable Elimination (SVE) to analytically solve the lower optimization. The resulting program can then be formulated as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) which is solved to global optimality using standard off-the-shelf solvers. To our knowledge, our framework is the first to provide a globally optimal solution to the linear SPO problem. Experimental results comparing with state-of-the-art local SPO solvers show that the globally optimal solution obtains up to two orders of magnitude reduction in decision regret.

Recent advances in symbolic dynamic programming (SDP) have significantly broadened the class of MDPs for which exact closed-form value functions can be derived. However, no existing solution methods can solve complex discrete and continuous state MDPs where a linear program determines state transitions --- transitions that are often required in problems with underlying constrained flow dynamics arising in problems ranging from traffic signal control to telecommunications bandwidth planning. In this paper, we present a novel SDP solution method for MDPs with LP transitions and continuous piecewise linear dynamics by introducing a novel, fully symbolic argmax operator. On three diverse domains, we show the first automated exact closed-form SDP solution to these challenging problems and the significant advantages of our SDP approach over discretized approximations.