We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model parameters, our methods adopt a predictive-first perspective based on martingale posteriors. In particular, we work directly with the one-step-ahead posterior predictive, which we parameterize with a neural network and update sequentially with incoming observations. This decouples Bayesian decision-making from parameter-space inference: we sample from the posterior predictive for decision making, and update the parameters of the posterior predictive via fast, frequentist Kalman-filter-like recursions. Our algorithms operate in a fully online, replay-free setting, providing principled uncertainty quantification without costly posterior sampling. Empirically, they achieve competitive performance–speed trade-offs in non-stationary contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization, offering 10–100 times faster inference than classical Thompson sampling while maintaining comparable or superior decision performance.

We derive a novel, provably robust, efficient, and closed-form Bayesian update rule for online filtering in state-space models in the presence of outliers and misspecified measurement models. Our method combines generalised Bayesian inference with filtering methods such as the extended and ensemble Kalman filter. We use the former to show robustness and the latter to ensure computational efficiency in the case of nonlinear models. Our method matches or outperforms other robust filtering methods (such as those based on variational Bayes) at a much lower computational cost. We show this empirically on a range of filtering problems with outlier measurements, such as object tracking, state estimation in high-dimensional chaotic systems, and online learning of neural networks.

In this paper we present a new algorithm for online (sequential) inference in Bayesian neural networks, and show its suitability for tackling contextual bandit problems. The key idea is to combine the extended Kalman filter (which locally linearizes the likelihood function at each time step) with a (learned or random) low-dimensional affine subspace for the parameters; the use of a subspace enables us to scale our algorithm to models with $\sim 1M$ parameters. While most other neural bandit methods need to store the entire past dataset in order to avoid the problem of “catastrophic forgetting”, our approach uses constant memory. This is possible because we represent uncertainty about all the parameters in the model, not just the final linear layer. We show good results on the “Deep Bayesian Bandit Showdown” benchmark, as well as MNIST and a recommender system.