The generation of initial conditions via accurate data assimilation is crucial for weather forecasting and climate modeling. We propose DiffDA as a denoising diffusion model capable of assimilating atmospheric variables using predicted states and sparse observations. Acknowledging the similarity between a weather forecast model and a denoising diffusion model dedicated to weather applications, we adapt the pretrained GraphCast neural network as the backbone of the diffusion model. Through experiments based on simulated observations from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset, our method can produce assimilated global atmospheric data consistent with observations at 0.25$^\circ$ ($\approx$30km) resolution globally. This marks the highest resolution achieved by ML data assimilation models. The experiments also show that the initial conditions assimilated from sparse observations (less than 0.96% of gridded data) and 48-hour forecast can be used for forecast models with a loss of lead time of at most 24 hours compared to initial conditions from state-of-the-art data assimilation in ERA5. This enables the application of the method to real-world applications, such as creating reanalysis datasets with autoregressive data assimilation.

We propose a novel approach to iterated sparse matrix dense matrix multiplication, a fundamental computational kernel in scientific computing and graph neural network training. In cases where matrix sizes exceed the memory of a single compute node, data transfer becomes a bottleneck. An approach based on dense matrix multiplication algorithms leads to sub-optimal scalability and fails to exploit the sparsity in the problem. To address these challenges, we propose decomposing the sparse matrix into a small number of highly structured matrices called arrow matrices, which are connected by permutations. Our approach enables communication-avoiding multiplications, achieving a polynomial reduction in communication volume per iteration for matrices corresponding to planar graphs and other minor-excluded families of graphs. Our evaluation demonstrates that our approach outperforms a state-of-the-art method for sparse matrix multiplication on matrices with hundreds of millions of rows, offering near-linear strong and weak scaling.

The shift towards high-bandwidth networks driven by AI workloads in data centers and HPC clusters has unintentionally aggravated network latency, adversely affecting the performance of communication-intensive HPC applications. As large-scale applications often exhibit significant differences in their network latency tolerance, it is crucial to determine the extent of network latency an application can withstand without significant performance degradation. Current approaches often rely on specialized hardware or simulators, which can be inflexible and time-consuming. We introduce LLAMP, a novel toolchain that offers an efficient analytical approach to evaluating HPC applications’ network latency tolerance using the LogGPS model and linear programming. Through our validation on a variety of MPI applications such as LULESH and MILC, we demonstrate our tool’s high accuracy, with relative prediction errors below 2%. Additionally, we include a case study of the ICON weather and climate model to illustrate LLAMP’s broad applicability in evaluating collective algorithms and network topologies.

Post-processing ensemble prediction systems can improve the reliability of weather forecasting, especially for extreme event prediction. In recent years, different machine learning models have been developed to improve the quality of weather post-processing. However, these models require a comprehensive dataset of weather simulations to produce high-accuracy results, which comes at a high computational cost to generate. This paper introduces the ENS-10 dataset, consisting of ten ensemble members spanning 20 years (1998--2017). The ensemble members are generated by perturbing numerical weather simulations to capture the chaotic behavior of the Earth. To represent the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere, ENS-10 provides the most relevant atmospheric variables at 11 distinct pressure levels and the surface at \ang{0.5} resolution for forecast lead times T=0, 24, and 48 hours (two data points per week). We propose the ENS-10 prediction correction task for improving the forecast quality at a 48-hour lead time through ensemble post-processing. We provide a set of baselines and compare their skill at correcting the predictions of three important atmospheric variables. Moreover, we measure the baselines' skill at improving predictions of extreme weather events using our dataset. The ENS-10 dataset is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) license.