Making good decisions requires updating beliefs according to new evidence. This is a dynamical process that is prone to biases: in some cases, beliefs become entrenched and resistant to new evidence (leading to primacy effects), while in other cases, beliefs fade over time and rely primarily on later evidence (leading to recency effects). How and why either type of bias dominates in a given context is an important open question. Here, we study this question in classic perceptual decision-making tasks, where, puzzlingly, previous empirical studies differ in the kinds of biases they observe, ranging from primacy to recency, despite seemingly equivalent tasks. We present a new model, based on hierarchical approximate inference and derived from normative principles, that not only explains both primacy and recency effects in existing studies, but also predicts how the type of bias should depend on the statistics of stimuli in a given task. We verify this prediction in a novel visual discrimination task with human observers, finding that each observer's temporal bias changed as the result of changing the key stimulus statistics identified by our model. The key dynamic that leads to a primacy bias in our model is an overweighting of new sensory information that agrees with the observer's existing belief-a type of 'confirmation bias'. By fitting an extended drift-diffusion model to our data we rule out an alternative explanation for primacy effects due to bounded integration. Taken together, our results resolve a major discrepancy among existing perceptual decision-making studies, and suggest that a key source of bias in human decision-making is approximate hierarchical inference.

Experiments that study neural encoding of stimuli at the level of individual neurons typically choose a small set of features present in the world-contrast and luminance for vision, pitch and intensity for sound-and assemble a stimulus set that systematically varies along these dimensions. Subsequent analysis of neural responses to these stimuli typically focuses on regression models, with experimenter-controlled features as predictors and spike counts or firing rates as responses. Unfortunately, this approach requires knowledge in advance about the relevant features coded by a given population of neurons. For domains as complex as social interaction or natural movement, however, the relevant feature space is poorly understood, and an arbitrary a priori choice of features may give rise to confirmation bias. Here, we present a Bayesian model for exploratory data analysis that is capable of automatically identifying the features present in unstructured stimuli based solely on neuronal responses. Our approach is unique within the class of latent state space models of neural activity in that it assumes that firing rates of neurons are sensitive to multiple discrete time-varying features tied to the stimulus, each of which has Markov (or semi-Markov) dynamics. That is, we are modeling neural activity as driven by multiple simultaneous stimulus features rather than intrinsic neural dynamics. We derive a fast variational Bayesian inference algorithm and show that it correctly recovers hidden features in synthetic data, as well as ground-truth stimulus features in a prototypical neural dataset. To demonstrate the utility of the algorithm, we also apply it to cluster neural responses and demonstrate successful recovery of features corresponding to monkeys and faces in the image set.

We propose a second-order (Hessian or Hessian-free) based optimization method for variational inference inspired by Gaussian backpropagation, and argue that quasi-Newton optimization can be developed as well. This is accomplished by generalizing the gradient computation in stochastic backpropagation via a reparametrization trick with lower complexity. As an illustrative example, we apply this approach to the problems of Bayesian logistic regression and variational auto-encoder (VAE). Additionally, we compute bounds on the estimator variance of intractable expectations for the family of Lipschitz continuous function. Our method is practical, scalable and model free. We demonstrate our method on several real-world datasets and provide comparisons with other stochastic gradient methods to show substantial enhancement in convergence rates.

The olfactory system faces a difficult inference problem: it has to determine what odors are present based on the distributed activation of its receptor neurons. Here we derive neural implementations of two approximate inference algorithms that could be used by the brain. One is a variational algorithm (which builds on the work of Beck. et al., 2012), the other is based on sampling. Importantly, we use a more realistic prior distribution over odors than has been used in the past: we use a spike and slab'' prior, for which most odors have zero concentration. After mapping the two algorithms onto neural dynamics, we find that both can infer correct odors in less than 100 ms, although it takes ~500 ms to eliminate false positives. Thus, at the behavioral level, the two algorithms make very similar predictions. However, they make different assumptions about connectivity and neural computations, and make different predictions about neural activity. Thus, they should be distinguishable experimentally. If so, that would provide insight into the mechanisms employed by the olfactory system, and, because the two algorithms use very different coding strategies, that would also provide insight into how networks represent probabilities."

Recent experiments have demonstrated that humans and animals typically reason probabilistically about their environment. This ability requires a neural code that represents probability distributions and neural circuits that are capable of implementing the operations of probabilistic inference. The proposed probabilistic population coding (PPC) framework provides a statistically efficient neural representation of probability distributions that is both broadly consistent with physiological measurements and capable of implementing some of the basic operations of probabilistic inference in a biologically plausible way. However, these experiments and the corresponding neural models have largely focused on simple (tractable) probabilistic computations such as cue combination, coordinate transformations, and decision making. As a result it remains unclear how to generalize this framework to more complex probabilistic computations. Here we address this short coming by showing that a very general approximate inference algorithm known as Variational Bayesian Expectation Maximization can be implemented within the linear PPC framework. We apply this approach to a generic problem faced by any given layer of cortex, namely the identification of latent causes of complex mixtures of spikes. We identify a formal equivalent between this spike pattern demixing problem and topic models used for document classification, in particular Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). We then construct a neural network implementation of variational inference and learning for LDA that utilizes a linear PPC. This network relies critically on two non-linear operations: divisive normalization and super-linear facilitation, both of which are ubiquitously observed in neural circuits. We also demonstrate how online learning can be achieved using a variation of Hebb’s rule and describe an extesion of this work which allows us to deal with time varying and correlated latent causes.

We present a Bayesian nonparametric model that discovers implicit social structure from interaction time-series data. Social groups are often formed implicitly, through actions among members of groups. Yet many models of social networks use explicitly declared relationships to infer social structure. We consider a particular class of Hawkes processes, a doubly stochastic point process, that is able to model reciprocity between groups of individuals. We then extend the Infinite Relational Model by using these reciprocating Hawkes processes to parameterise its edges, making events associated with edges co-dependent through time. Our model outperforms general, unstructured Hawkes processes as well as structured Poisson process-based models at predicting verbal and email turn-taking, and military conflicts among nations.

A simple expression for a lower bound of Fisher information is derived for a network of recurrently connected spiking neurons that have been driven to a noise-perturbed steady state. We call this lower bound linear Fisher information, as it corresponds to the Fisher information that can be recovered by a locally optimal linear estimator. Unlike recent similar calculations, the approach used here includes the effects of nonlinear gain functions and correlated input noise and yields a surprisingly simple and intuitive expression that offers substantial insight into the sources of information degradation across successive layers of a neural network. Here, this expression is used to (1) compute the optimal (i.e., information-maximizing) firing rate of a neuron, (2) demonstrate why sharpening tuning curves by either thresholding or the action of recurrent connectivity is generally a bad idea, (3) show how a single cortical expansion is sufficient to instantiate a redundant population code that can propagate across multiple cortical layers with minimal information loss, and (4) show that optimal recurrent connectivity strongly depends on the covariance structure of the inputs to the network.

A feedforward spiking network represents a nonlinear transformation that maps a set of input spikes to a set of output spikes. This mapping transforms the joint probability distribution of incoming spikes into a joint distribution of output spikes. We present an algorithm for synaptic adaptation that aims to maximize the entropy of this output distribution, thereby creating a model for the joint distribution of the incoming point processes. The learning rule that is derived depends on the precise pre- and postsynaptic spike timings. When trained on correlated spike trains, the network learns to extract independent spike trains, thereby uncovering the underlying statistical structure and creating a more efficient representation of the incoming spike trains.

From first principles, we derive a quadratic nonlinear, first-order dynamical system capable of performing exact Bayes-Markov inferences for a wide class of biologically plausible stimulus-dependent patterns of activity while simultaneously providing an online estimate of model performance. This is accomplished by constructing a dynamical system that has solutions proportional to the probability distribution over the stimulus space, but with a constant of proportionality adjusted to provide a local estimate of the probability of the recent observations of stimulus-dependent activity-given model parameters. Next, we transform this exact equation to generate nonlinear equations for the exact evolution of log likelihood and log-likelihood ratios and show that when the input has low amplitude, linear rate models for both the likelihood and the log-likelihood functions follow naturally from these equations. We use these four explicit representations of the probability distribution to argue that, in contrast to the arguments of previous work, the dynamical system for the exact evolution of the likelihood (as opposed to the log likelihood or log-likelihood ratios) not only can be mapped onto a biologically plausible network but is also more consistent with physiological observations.