Understanding true influence in social media requires distinguishing correlation from causation—particularly when analyzing misinformation spread. While existing approaches focus on exposure metrics and network structures, they often fail to capture the causal mechanisms by which external temporal signals trigger engagement. We introduce CITRUS (Causal Influence through Treatment-Response Understanding in Social media), a novel joint treatment-outcome framework that leverages existing sequential models to understand how external signals—search trends, news coverage, influencer activity—trigger misinformation engagement. Through experiments on real-world misinformation and disinformation datasets, CITRUS outperforms existing benchmarks by 15-22% in predicting engagement across diverse counterfactual scenarios, including exposure adjustment, temporal alignment shifts, and varied intervention durations. Case studies on 492 social media users demonstrate that our causal effect measure aligns strongly with expert-based empirical influence assessments, validating CITRUS as a robust framework for understanding information spread dynamics. CITRUS also reveals that low-baseline misinformation can scale 6-fold under external promotion, showing super-linear growth, and unmasks hidden amplifiers—accounts with modest followings that double engagement rates, outperforming supposed "influencers" with 100x more followers.

Social media engagement prediction is a central challenge in computational social science, particularly for understanding how users interact with misinformation. Existing approaches often treat engagement as a homogeneous time-series signal, overlooking the heterogeneous social mechanisms and platform designs that shape how misinformation spreads. In this work, we ask: ``Can neural architectures discover social exchange principles from behavioral data alone?'' We introduce \textsc{Dreams} (\underline{D}isentangled \underline{R}epresentations and \underline{E}pisodic \underline{A}daptive \underline{M}odeling for \underline{S}ocial media misinformation engagements), a social exchange theory-guided framework that models misinformation engagement as a dynamic process of social exchange. Rather than treating engagement as a static outcome, \textsc{Dreams} models it as a sequence-to-sequence adaptation problem, where each action reflects an evolving negotiation between user effort and social reward conditioned by platform context. It integrates adaptive mechanisms to learn how emotional and contextual signals propagate through time and across platforms. On a cross-platform dataset spanning $7$ platforms and 2.37M posts collected between 2021 and 2025, \textsc{Dreams} achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting misinformation engagements, reaching a mean absolute percentage error of $19.25$\%. This is a $43.6$\% improvement over the strongest baseline. Beyond predictive gains, the model reveals consistent cross-platform patterns that align with social exchange principles, suggesting that integrating behavioral theory can enhance empirical modeling of online misinformation engagement. The source code is available at: https://github.com/ltian678/DREAMS.

Online ideology detection is crucial for downstream tasks, like countering ideologically motivated violent extremism and modeling opinion dynamics. However, two significant issues arise in practitioners' deployment. Firstly, gold-standard training data is prohibitively labor-intensive to collect and has limited reusability beyond its collection context (i.e., time, location, and platform). Secondly, to circumvent expense, researchers employ ideological signals (such as hashtags shared). Unfortunately, these signals' annotation requirements and context transferability are largely unknown, and the bias they induce remains unquantified. This study provides guidelines for practitioners requiring real-time detection of left, right, and extreme ideologies in large-scale online settings. We propose a framework for pipeline constructions, describing ideology signals by their associated labor and context transferability. We evaluate many constructions, quantifying the bias associated with signals and describing a pipeline that outperforms state-of-the-art methods (0.95 AUC ROC). We showcase the capabilities of our pipeline on five datasets containing more than 1.12 million users. We set out to investigate whether the findings in the psychosocial literature, developed for the offline environment, apply to the online setting. We evaluate at scale several psychosocial hypotheses that delineate ideologies concerning morality, grievance, nationalism, and dichotomous thinking. We find that right-wing ideologies use more vice-moral language, have more grievance-filled language, exhibit increased black-and-white thinking patterns, and have a greater association with national flags. This research empowers practitioners with guidelines for ideology detection, and case studies for its application, fostering a safer and better understood digital landscape.

In today's digital age, conspiracies and information campaigns can emerge rapidly and erode social and democratic cohesion.While recent deep learning approaches have made progress in modeling engagement through language and propagation models, they struggle with irregularly sampled data and early trajectory assessment.We present IC-Mamba , a novel state space model that forecasts social media engagement by modeling intervalcensored data with integrated temporal embeddings.Our model excels at predicting engagement patterns within the crucial first 15-30 minutes of posting (RMSE 0.118-0.143),enabling rapid assessment of content reach.By incorporating interval-censored modeling into the state space framework, IC-Mamba captures finegrained temporal dynamics of engagement growth, achieving a 4.72% improvement over state-of-the-art across multiple engagement metrics (likes, shares, comments, and emojis).Our experiments demonstrate IC-Mamba's effectiveness in forecasting both post-level dynamics and broader narrative patterns (F1 0.508-0.751for narrative-level predictions).The model maintains strong predictive performance across extended time horizons, successfully forecasting opinion-level engagement up to 28 days ahead using observation windows of 3-10 days.These capabilities enable earlier identification of potentially problematic content, providing crucial lead time for designing and implementing countermeasures.

Online communities play a critical role in shaping societal discourse and influencing collective behavior in the real world. The tendency for people to connect with others who share similar characteristics and views, known as homophily, plays a key role in the formation of echo chambers which further amplify polarization and division. Existing works examining homophily in online communities traditionally infer it using content- or adjacency-based approaches, such as constructing explicit interaction networks or performing topic analysis. These methods fall short for platforms where interaction networks cannot be easily constructed and fail to capture the complex nature of user interactions across the platform. This work introduces a novel approach for quantifying user homophily. We first use an Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) framework to infer users' policies, then use these policies as a measure of behavioral homophily. We apply our method to Reddit, conducting a case study across 5.9 million interactions over six years, demonstrating how this approach uncovers distinct behavioral patterns and user roles that vary across different communities. We further validate our behavioral homophily measure against traditional content-based homophily, offering a powerful method for analyzing social media dynamics and their broader societal implications. We find, among others, that users can behave very similarly (high behavioral homophily) when discussing entirely different topics like soccer vs e-sports (low topical homophily), and that there is an entire class of users on Reddit whose purpose seems to be to disagree with others.

Automatic identification of hateful and abusive content is vital in combating the spread of harmful online content and its damaging effects. Most existing works evaluate models by examining the generalization error on train–test splits on hate speech datasets. These datasets often differ in their definitions and labeling criteria, leading to poor generalization performance when predicting across new domains and datasets. This work proposes a new Multi-task Learning (MTL) pipeline that trains simultaneously across multiple hate speech datasets to construct a more encompassing classification model. Using a dataset-level leave-one-out evaluation (designating a dataset for testing and jointly training on all others), we trial the MTL detection on new, previously unseen datasets. Our results consistently outperform a large sample of existing work. We show strong results when examining the generalization error in train–test splits and substantial improvements when predicting on previously unseen datasets. Furthermore, we assemble a novel dataset, dubbed PubFigs, focusing on the problematic speech of American Public Political Figures. We crowdsource-label using Amazon MTurk more than 20,000 tweets and machine-label problematic speech in all the 305,235 tweets in PubFigs. We find that the abusive and hate tweeting mainly originates from right-leaning figures and relates to six topics, including Islam, women, ethnicity, and immigrants. We show that MTL builds embeddings that can simultaneously separate abusive from hate speech, and identify its topics.

The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) is widely used for analyzing data streams that interact with each other, where events generate new events within their own dimension (via self-excitation) or across different dimensions (via cross excitation). However, in certain applications, the timestamps of individual events in some dimensions are unobservable, and only event counts within intervals are known, referred to as partially interval-censored data. The MHP is unsuitable for handling such data since its estimation requires event timestamps. In this study, we introduce the partially censored multivariate Hawkes process (PCMHP), a novel point process that shares parameter equivalence with the MHP and can effectively model both timestamped and interval-censored data. We demonstrate the capabilities of the PCMHP using synthetic and real-world datasets. First, we illustrate that the PCMHP can approximate MHP parameters and recover the spectral radius using synthetic event histories. Next, we assess the performance of the PCMHP in predicting YouTube popularity and find that the PCMHP outperforms the popularity estimation algorithm Hawkes intensity process (HIP)[1]. Comparing with the fully interval-censored HIP, we show that the PCMHP improves prediction performance by accounting for point process dimensions, particularly when there exist significant cross-dimension interactions. Last, we leverage the PCMHP to gain qualitative insights from a dataset comprising daily COVID-19 case counts from multiple countries and COVID-19-related news articles. By clustering the PCMHP-modeled countries, we unveil hidden interaction patterns between occurrences of COVID-19 cases and news reporting.

Online extremism has severe societal consequences, including normalizing hate speech, user radicalization, and increased social divisions. Various mitigation strategies have been explored to address these consequences. One such strategy uses positive interventions: controlled signals that add attention to the opinion ecosystem to boost certain opinions. To evaluate the effectiveness of positive interventions, we introduce the Opinion Market Model (OMM), a two-tier online opinion ecosystem model that considers both inter-opinion interactions and the role of positive interventions. The size of the opinion attention market is modeled in the first tier using the multivariate discrete-time Hawkes process; in the second tier, opinions cooperate and compete for market share, given limited attention using the market share attraction model. We demonstrate the convergence of our proposed estimation scheme on a synthetic dataset. Next, we test OMM on two learning tasks, applying to two real-world datasets to predict attention market shares and uncover latent relationships between online items. The first dataset comprises Facebook and Twitter discussions containing moderate and far-right opinions about bushfires and climate change. The second dataset captures popular VEVO artists' YouTube and Twitter attention volumes. OMM outperforms the state-of-the-art predictive models on both datasets and captures latent cooperation-competition relations. We uncover (1) self- and cross-reinforcement between far-right and moderate opinions on the bushfires and (2) pairwise artist relations that correlate with real-world interactions such as collaborations and long-lasting feuds. Lastly, we use OMM as a testbed for positive interventions and show how media coverage modulates the spread of far-right opinions.

Social media is being increasingly weaponized by state-backed actors to elicit reactions, push narratives and sway public opinion. These are known as Information Operations (IO). The covert nature of IO makes their detection difficult. This is further amplified by missing data due to the user and content removal and privacy requirements. This work advances the hypothesis that the very reactions that Information Operations seek to elicit within the target social systems can be used to detect them. We propose an Interval-censored Transformer Hawkes (IC-TH) architecture and a novel data encoding scheme to account for both observed and missing data. We derive a novel log-likelihood function that we deploy together with a contrastive learning procedure. We showcase the performance of IC-TH on three real-world Twitter datasets and two learning tasks: future popularity prediction and item category prediction. The latter is particularly significant. Using the retweeting timing and patterns solely, we can predict the category of YouTube videos, guess whether news publishers are reputable or controversial and, most importantly, identify state-backed IO agent accounts. Additional qualitative investigations uncover that the automatically discovered clusters of Russian-backed agents appear to coordinate their behavior, activating simultaneously to push specific narratives.

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals -- such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors -- and not the exact occurrence time of the events. It is currently not understood how to fit the Hawkes point processes to this kind of data. Its typical loss function (the point process log-likelihood) cannot be computed without exact event times. Furthermore, it does not have the independent increments property to use the Poisson likelihood. This work builds a novel point process, a set of tools, and approximations for fitting Hawkes processes within interval-censored data scenarios. First, we define the Mean Behavior Poisson process (MBPP), a novel Poisson process with a direct parameter correspondence to the popular self-exciting Hawkes process. We fit MBPP in the interval-censored setting using an interval-censored Poisson log-likelihood (IC-LL). We use the parameter equivalence to uncover the parameters of the associated Hawkes process. Second, we introduce two novel exogenous functions to distinguish the exogenous from the endogenous events. We propose the multi-impulse exogenous function -- for when the exogenous events are observed as event time -- and the latent homogeneous Poisson process exogenous function -- for when the exogenous events are presented as interval-censored volumes. Third, we provide several approximation methods to estimate the intensity and compensator function of MBPP when no analytical solution exists. Fourth and finally, we connect the interval-censored loss of MBPP to a broader class of Bregman divergence-based functions. Using the connection, we show that the popularity estimation algorithm Hawkes Intensity Process (HIP) is a particular case of the MBPP. We verify our models through empirical testing on synthetic data and real-world data. We find that our MBPP outperforms HIP on real-world datasets for the task of popularity prediction. This work makes it possible to efficiently fit the Hawkes process to interval-censored data.

Modeling online discourse dynamics is a core activity in understanding the spread of information, both offline and online, and emergent online behavior. There is currently a disconnect between the practitioners of online social media analysis --- usually social, political and communication scientists --- and the accessibility to tools capable of examining online discussions of users. Here we present evently, a tool for modeling online reshare cascades, and particularly retweet cascades, using self-exciting processes. It provides a comprehensive set of functionalities for processing raw data from Twitter public APIs, modeling the temporal dynamics of processed retweet cascades and characterizing online users with a wide range of diffusion measures. This tool is designed for researchers with a wide range of computer expertise, and it includes tutorials and detailed documentation. We illustrate the usage of evently with an end-to-end analysis of online user behavior on a topical dataset relating to COVID-19. We show that, by characterizing users solely based on how their content spreads online, we can disentangle influential users and online bots.

The impact of online social media on societal events and institutions is profound, and with the rapid increases in user uptake, we are just starting to understand its ramifications. Social scientists and practitioners who model online discourse as a proxy for real-world behavior often curate large social media datasets. A lack of available tooling aimed at non-data science experts frequently leaves this data (and the insights it holds) underutilized. Here, we propose birdspotter -- a tool to analyze and label Twitter users --, and birdspotter.ml -- an exploratory visualizer for the computed metrics. birdspotter provides an end-to-end analysis pipeline, from the processing of pre-collected Twitter data to general-purpose labeling of users and estimating their social influence, within a few lines of code. The package features tutorials and detailed documentation. We also illustrate how to train birdspotter into a fully-fledged bot detector that achieves better than state-of-the-art performances without making Twitter API calls, and we showcase its usage in an exploratory analysis of a topical COVID-19 dataset.

Developing new methods for modelling infectious diseases outbreaks is important for monitoring transmission and developing policy. In this paper we propose using semi-mechanistic Hawkes Processes for modelling malaria transmission in near-elimination settings. Hawkes Processes are well founded mathematical methods that enable us to combine the benefits of both statistical and mechanistic models to recreate and forecast disease transmission beyond just malaria outbreak scenarios. These methods have been successfully used in numerous applications such as social media and earthquake modelling, but are not yet widespread in epidemiology. By using domain-specific knowledge, we can both recreate transmission curves for malaria in China and Eswatini and disentangle the proportion of cases which are imported from those that are community based.

The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the non-parametric Bayesian HP has been proposed. However, the inference of such models suffers from unscalability or slow convergence. In this paper, we aim to solve both problems. Specifically, first, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian HP in which the triggering kernel is modeled as a squared sparse Gaussian process. Then, we propose a novel variational inference schema for model optimization. We employ the branching structure of the HP so that maximization of evidence lower bound (ELBO) is tractable by the expectation-maximization algorithm. We propose a tighter ELBO which improves the fitting performance. Further, we accelerate the novel variational inference schema to linear time complexity by leveraging the stationarity of the triggering kernel. Different from prior acceleration methods, ours enjoys higher efficiency. Finally, we exploit synthetic data and two large social media datasets to evaluate our method. We show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art non-parametric frequentist and Bayesian methods. We validate the efficiency of our accelerated variational inference schema and practical utility of our tighter ELBO for model selection. We observe that the tighter ELBO exceeds the common one in model selection.

Skill shortages are a drain on society. They hamper economic opportunities for individuals, slow growth for firms, and impede labor productivity in aggregate. Therefore, the ability to understand and predict skill shortages in advance is critical for policy-makers and educators to help alleviate their adverse effects. This research implements a high-performing Machine Learning approach to predict occupational skill shortages. In addition, we demonstrate methods to analyze the underlying skill demands of occupations in shortage and the most important features for predicting skill shortages. For this work, we compile a unique dataset of both Labor Demand and Labor Supply occupational data in Australia from 2012 to 2018. This includes data from 7.7 million job advertisements (ads) and 20 official labor force measures. We use these data as explanatory variables and leverage the XGBoost classifier to predict yearly skills shortage classifications for 132 standardized occupations. The models we construct achieve macro-F1 average performance scores of up to 83 per cent. Our results show that job ads data and employment statistics were the highest performing feature sets for predicting year-to-year skills shortage changes for occupations. We also find that features such as `Hours Worked', years of `Education', years of `Experience', and median `Salary' are highly important features for predicting occupational skill shortages. This research provides a robust data-driven approach for predicting and analyzing skill shortages, which can assist policy-makers, educators, and businesses to prepare for the future of work.

It is well-known that online behavior is long-tailed, with most cascaded actions being short and a few being very long. A prominent drawback in generative models for online events is the inability to describe unpopular items well. This work addresses these shortcomings by proposing dual mixture self-exciting processes to jointly learn from groups of cascades. We first start from the observation that maximum likelihood estimates for content virality and influence decay are separable in a Hawkes process. Next, our proposed model, which leverages a Borel mixture model and a kernel mixture model, jointly models the unfolding of a heterogeneous set of cascades. When applied to cascades of the same online items, the model directly characterizes their spread dynamics and supplies interpretable quantities, such as content virality and content influence decay, as well as methods for predicting the final content popularities. On two retweet cascade datasets --- one relating to YouTube videos and the second relating to controversial news articles --- we show that our models capture the differences between online items at the granularity of items, publishers and categories. In particular, we are able to distinguish between far-right, conspiracy, controversial and reputable online news articles based on how they diffuse through social media, achieving an F1 score of 0.945. On holdout datasets, we show that the dual mixture model provides, for reshare diffusion cascades especially unpopular ones, better generalization performance and, for online items, accurate item popularity predictions.

Approximate inference techniques are the cornerstone of probabilistic methods based on Gaussian process priors. Despite this, most work approximately optimizes standard divergence measures such as the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, which lack the basic desiderata for the task at hand, while chiefly offering merely technical convenience. We develop a new approximate inference method for Gaussian process models which overcomes the technical challenges arising from abandoning these convenient divergences. Our method---dubbed Quantile Propagation (QP)---is similar to expectation propagation (EP) but minimizes the $L_2$ Wasserstein distance (WD) instead of the KL divergence. The WD exhibits all the required properties of a distance metric, while respecting the geometry of the underlying sample space. We show that QP matches quantile functions rather than moments as in EP and has the same mean update but a smaller variance update than EP, thereby alleviating EP's tendency to over-estimate posterior variances. Crucially, despite the significant complexity of dealing with the WD, QP has the same favorable locality property as EP, and thereby admits an efficient algorithm. Experiments on classification and Poisson regression show that QP outperforms both EP and variational Bayes.

Epidemic models and self-exciting processes are two types of models used to describe diffusion phenomena online and offline. These models were originally developed in different scientific communities, and their commonalities are under-explored. This work establishes, for the first time, a general connection between the two model classes via three new mathematical components. The first is a generalized version of stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with arbitrary recovery time distributions; the second is the relationship between the (latent and arbitrary) recovery time distribution, recovery hazard function, and the infection kernel of self-exciting processes; the third includes methods for simulating, fitting, evaluating and predicting the generalized process. On three large Twitter diffusion datasets, we conduct goodness-of-fit tests and holdout log-likelihood evaluation of self-exciting processes with three infection kernels --- exponential, power-law and Tsallis Q-exponential. We show that the modeling performance of the infection kernels varies with respect to the temporal structures of diffusions, and also with respect to user behavior, such as the likelihood of being bots. We further improve the prediction of popularity by combining two models that are identified as complementary by the goodness-of-fit tests.

Labour demand and skill shortages have historically been difficult to assess given the high costs of conducting representative surveys and the inherent delays of these indicators. This is particularly consequential for fast developing skills and occupations, such as those relating to Data Science and Analytics (DSA). This paper develops a data-driven solution to detecting skill shortages from online job advertisements (ads) data. We first propose a method to generate sets of highly similar skills based on a set of seed skills from job ads. This provides researchers with a novel method to adaptively select occupations based on granular skills data. Next, we apply this adaptive skills similarity technique to a dataset of over 6.7 million Australian job ads in order to identify occupations with the highest proportions of DSA skills. This uncovers 306,577 DSA job ads across 23 occupational classes from 2012-2019. Finally, we propose five variables for detecting skill shortages from online job ads: (1) posting frequency; (2) salary levels; (3) education requirements; (4) experience demands; and (5) job ad posting predictability. This contributes further evidence to the goal of detecting skills shortages in real-time. In conducting this analysis, we also find strong evidence of skills shortages in Australia for highly technical DSA skills and occupations. These results provide insights to Data Science researchers, educators, and policy-makers from other advanced economies about the types of skills that should be cultivated to meet growing DSA labour demands in the future.

In this paper, we develop an efficient non-parametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Utilizing the stationarity of the Hawkes process, we efficiently sample random branching structures and thus, we split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes. We derive two algorithms --- a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on expectation maximization --- and we show that our methods have a linear time complexity, both theoretically and empirically. On synthetic data, we show our methods to be able to infer flexible Hawkes triggering kernels. On two large-scale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that our methods outperform the current state-of-the-art in goodness-of-fit and that the time complexity is linear in the size of the dataset. We also observe that on diffusions related to online videos, the learned kernels reflect the perceived longevity for different content types such as music or pets videos.

Online videos have shown tremendous increase in Internet traffic. Most video hosting sites implement recommender systems, which connect the videos into a directed network and conceptually act as a source of pathways for users to navigate. At present, little is known about how human attention is allocated over such large-scale networks, and about the impacts of the recommender systems. In this paper, we first construct the Vevo network -- a YouTube video network with 60,740 music videos interconnected by the recommendation links, and we collect their associated viewing dynamics. This results in a total of 310 million views every day over a period of 9 weeks. Next, we present large-scale measurements that connect the structure of the recommendation network and the video attention dynamics. We use the bow-tie structure to characterize the Vevo network and we find that its core component (23.1% of the videos), which occupies most of the attention (82.6% of the views), is made out of videos that are mainly recommended among themselves. This is indicative of the links between video recommendation and the inequality of attention allocation. Finally, we address the task of estimating the attention flow in the video recommendation network. We propose a model that accounts for the network effects for predicting video popularity, and we show it consistently outperforms the baselines. This model also identifies a group of artists gaining attention because of the recommendation network. Altogether, our observations and our models provide a new set of tools to better understand the impacts of recommender systems on collective social attention.

Among the statistical tools for online information diffusion modeling, both epidemic models and Hawkes point processes are popular choices. The former originate from epidemiology, and consider information as a viral contagion which spreads into a population of online users. The latter have roots in geophysics and finance, view individual actions as discrete events in continuous time, and modulate the rate of events according to the self-exciting nature of event sequences. Here, we establish a novel connection between these two frameworks. Namely, the rate of events in an extended Hawkes model is identical to the rate of new infections in the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model after marginalizing out recovery events -- which are unobserved in a Hawkes process. This result paves the way to apply tools developed for SIR to Hawkes, and vice versa. It also leads to HawkesN, a generalization of the Hawkes model which accounts for a finite population size. Finally, we derive the distribution of cascade sizes for HawkesN, inspired by methods in stochastic SIR. Such distributions provide nuanced explanations to the general unpredictability of popularity: the distribution for diffusion cascade sizes tends to have two modes, one corresponding to large cascade sizes and another one around zero.

Modeling and predicting the popularity of online content is a significant problem for the practice of information dissemination, advertising, and consumption. Recent work analyzing massive datasets advances our understanding of popularity, but one major gap remains: To precisely quantify the relationship between the popularity of an online item and the external promotions it receives. This work supplies the missing link between exogenous inputs from public social media platforms, such as Twitter, and endogenous responses within the content platform, such as YouTube. We develop a novel mathematical model, the Hawkes intensity process, which can explain the complex popularity history of each video according to its type of content, network of diffusion, and sensitivity to promotion. Our model supplies a prototypical description of videos, called an endo-exo map. This map explains popularity as the result of an extrinsic factor -- the amount of promotions from the outside world that the video receives, acting upon two intrinsic factors -- sensitivity to promotion, and inherent virality. We use this model to forecast future popularity given promotions on a large 5-months feed of the most-tweeted videos, and found it to lower the average error by 28.6% from approaches based on popularity history. Finally, we can identify videos that have a high potential to become viral, as well as those for which promotions will have hardly any effect.

Predicting popularity, or the total volume of information outbreaks, is an important subproblem for understanding collective behavior in networks. Each of the two main types of recent approaches to the problem, feature-driven and generative models, have desired qualities and clear limitations. This paper bridges the gap between these solutions with a new hybrid approach and a new performance benchmark. We model each social cascade with a marked Hawkes self-exciting point process, and estimate the content virality, memory decay, and user influence. We then learn a predictive layer for popularity prediction using a collection of cascade history. To our surprise, Hawkes process with a predictive overlay outperform recent feature-driven and generative approaches on existing tweet data [44] and a new public benchmark on news tweets. We also found that a basic set of user features and event time summary statistics performs competitively in both classification and regression tasks, and that adding point process information to the feature set further improves predictions. From these observations, we argue that future work on popularity prediction should compare across feature-driven and generative modeling approaches in both classification and regression tasks.

The cumulative effect of collective online participation has an important and adverse impact on individual privacy. As an online system evolves over time, new digital traces of individual behavior may uncover previously hidden statistical links between an individual's past actions and her private traits. To quantify this effect, we analyze the evolution of individual privacy loss by studying the edit history of Wikipedia over 13 years, including more than 117,523 different users performing 188,805,088 edits. We trace each Wikipedia's contributor using apparently harmless features, such as the number of edits performed on predefined broad categories in a given time period (e.g. Mathematics, Culture or Nature). We show that even at this unspecific level of behavior description, it is possible to use off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms to uncover usually undisclosed personal traits, such as gender, religion or education. We provide empirical evidence that the prediction accuracy for almost all private traits consistently improves over time. Surprisingly, the prediction performance for users who stopped editing after a given time still improves. The activities performed by new users seem to have contributed more to this effect than additional activities from existing (but still active) users. Insights from this work should help users, system designers, and policy makers understand and make long-term design choices in online content creation systems.

One of the prevalent learning tasks involving images is content-based image classification. This is a difficult task especially because the low-level features used to digitally describe images usually capture little information about the semantics of the images. In this paper, we tackle this diffic ulty by enriching the semantic content of the image representation by using external knowledge. The underlying hypothesis of our work is that creating a more semantically rich representation for images would yield higher machine learning performances, without the need to modify the learning algorithms themselves. The external semantic information is presented under the form of non-positional image labels, therefore positioning our work in a weakly supervised context. Two approaches are proposed: the first one leverages the labels into the visual vocabulary construction algorithm, the result being dedicated visual vocabularies. The second approach adds a filtering phase as a pre-processing of the vocabulary construction. Known positive and known negative sets are constructed and features that are unlikely to be associated with the objects denoted by the labels are filtered. We apply our proposition to the task of content-based image classification and we show that semantically enriching the image representation yields higher classification performances than the baseline representation.

In this paper, we propose a new time-aware dissimilarity measure that takes into account the temporal dimension. Observations that are close in the description space, but distant in time are considered as dissimilar. We also propose a method to enforce the segmentation contiguity, by introducing, in the objective function, a penalty term inspired from the Normal Distribution Function. We combine the two propositions into a novel time-driven constrained clustering algorithm, called TDCK-Means, which creates a partition of coherent clusters, both in the multidimensional space and in the temporal space. This algorithm uses soft semi-supervised constraints, to encourage adjacent observations belonging to the same entity to be assigned to the same cluster. We apply our algorithm to a Political Studies dataset in order to detect typical evolution phases. We adapt the Shannon entropy in order to measure the entity contiguity, and we show that our proposition consistently improves temporal cohesion of clusters, without any significant loss in the multidimensional variance.

International audience