Computational epidemiology is crucial in understanding and controlling infectious diseases, as highlighted by large-scale outbreaks such as COVID-19. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability of disease spread, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used to predict infection peaks, estimate reproduction numbers, and evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). While effective, MC-based methods require numerous runs to achieve statistically reliable estimates and variance, which suffer from high computational costs. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for analyzing disease spread dynamics on both directed and undirected contact networks, and propose an algorithm, **RAPID**, that significantly improves computational efficiency. Our contributions are threefold. First, we derive an asymptotic variance lower bound for MC estimates and identify the key factors influencing estimation variance. Second, we provide a theoretical analysis of the probabilistic disease spread process using linear approximations and derive the convergence conditions under non-reinfection epidemic models. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on six real-world datasets, demonstrating our method's effectiveness and robustness in estimating the nodes' final state distribution. Specifically, our proposed method consistently produces accurate estimates aligned with results from a large number of MC simulations, while maintaining a runtime comparable to a single MC simulation. Our code and datasets are available at https://github.com/GuanghuiMin/RAPID.

Epidemic containment has long been a crucial task in many high-stake application domains, ranging from public health to misinformation dissemination. Existing studies for epidemic containment are primarily focused on undirected networks, assuming that the infection rate is constant throughout the contact network regardless of the strength and direction of contact. However, such an assumption can be unrealistic given the asymmetric nature of the real-world infection process. To tackle the epidemic containment problem in directed networks, simply grafting the methods designed for undirected network can be problematic, as most of the existing methods rely on the orthogonality and Lipschitz continuity in the eigensystem of the underlying contact network, which do not hold for directed networks. In this work, we derive a theoretical analysis on the general epidemic threshold condition for directed networks and show that such threshold condition can be used as an optimization objective to control the spread of the disease. Based on the epidemic threshold, we propose an asymptotically greedy algorithm DINO (DIrected NetwOrk epidemic containment) to identify the most critical nodes for epidemic containment. The proposed algorithm is evaluated on real-world directed networks, and the results validate its effectiveness and efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/YinhanHe123/DINO/.