This paper concerns multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends. We use a step-wise approach to develop a novel agent-based model with the following properties: (1) it uses individual behavior parameters for a set of Twitter users and (2) it uses a retweet graph to model the underlying social network structure of these Twitter users to predict trends. The model parameters can be optimized using empirical data. To investigate to what extend this agent-based model can predict Twitter trends, we validate the model performance on two case studies using real Twitter data: tweets on banks and tweets on universities. We furthermore compare a version of the model that only uses the retweet graph (PM1) with the model that also simulates individual behavior (PM2) for small to larger prediction time intervals. For both case studies the results show that PM1 performs better for small prediction time intervals (up to one day in the future), while PM2 performs better for larger time intervals (from a day to a week). We think this opens up the possibility to use similar models for helping organizations to extend their monitoring capabilities of social media with predictive modeling and to become more pro-active and less reactive.

In this paper the influence of interventions on Twitter users is studied. We define influence in a) number of participants, b) size of the audience, c) amount of activity, and d) reach. Influence is studied for four different target groups: a) politicians, b) journalists, c) employees and d) the general public. Furthermore, two types of interventions are studied: a) by all Twitter users (i.e., uncontrolled interventions), and b) those tweeted by an organization that benefits from any resulting influence (i.e., controlled interventions). As a case study, tweets about a large Dutch governmental organization are used.

The aim of this study is to better understand social influence in online social media. Therefore, we propose a method in which we implement, validate and improve an individual behavior model. The behavior model is based on three fundamental behavioral principles of social influence from the literature: 1) liking, 2) social proof and 3) consistency. We have implemented the model using an agent-based modeling approach. The multi-agent model contains the social network structure, individual behavior parameters and the scenario that are obtained from empirical data. The model is validated by comparing the output of the multi-agent simulation with empirical data. We demonstrate the method by evaluating five versions of behavior models applied to the use case of Twitter behavior about a talent show on Dutch television.

Within human trust related behaviour, according to the literature from the domains of Psychology and Social Sciences often non-rational behaviour can be observed. Current trust models that have been developed typically do not incorporate non-rational

This paper discusses and evaluates an agent model that is able to manipulate the visual attention of a human, in order to support naval crew. The agent model consists of four sub-models, including a model to reason about a subject's attention. The mo

In this paper a simulation model for visual attention is discussed and formally analysed. The model is part of the design of an agent-based system that supports a naval officer in its task to compile a tactical picture of the situation in the field.