Vehicle damage localization and severity estimation is essential to post-accident assessments, with a traditional process taking an average of seven days and requiring substantial work from both customers and dealers. Towards improving this process, we propose an end-to-end system which inputs a set of user-acquired photographs of a vehicle after an accident and outputs a damage assessment report including the set of damaged parts and the type and size of the damage for each part. The system is composed of three deep learning modules: a model to identify whether a vehicle is present in the image, a model to localize the vehicle parts in the image, and a model to localize the damage in the image. We demonstrate the effectiveness of each module by evaluating them on labeled datasets containing images of vehicles after an accident, some collected by the OE (Original Equipment) Insured Fleet and some acquired by users of the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) mobile application. We also describe how the modules fit together with a post-processing step to aggregate outputs between the different modules across multiple user-acquired views of the accident. Our approach demonstrates the potential for an accurate and automated vehicle damage estimation system to support a substantially more efficient vehicle damage assessment process.

Neighborhood gentrification plays a significant role in shaping the social and economic well-being of both individuals and communities at large. While some efforts have been made to detect gentrification in cities, existing approaches rely mainly on estimated measures from survey data, require substantial work of human labeling, and are limited in characterizing the neighborhood as a whole. We propose a novel approach to detecting neighborhood gentrification at a large-scale based on the physical appearance of neighborhoods by incorporating historical street-level visual data. We show the effectiveness of the proposed method by comparing results from our approach with gentrification measures from previous literature and case studies. Our approach has the potential to supplement existing indicators of gentrification and become a valid resource for urban researchers and policy makers.

The use of video surveillance in public spaces--both by government agencies and by private citizens--has attracted considerable attention in recent years, particularly in light of rapid advances in face-recognition technology. But it has been difficult to systematically measure the prevalence and placement of cameras, hampering efforts to assess the implications of surveillance on privacy and public safety. Here we present a novel approach for estimating the spatial distribution of surveillance cameras: applying computer vision algorithms to large-scale street view image data. Specifically, we build a camera detection model and apply it to 1.6 million street view images sampled from 10 large U.S. cities and 6 other major cities around the world, with positive model detections verified by human experts. After adjusting for the estimated recall of our model, and accounting for the spatial coverage of our sampled images, we are able to estimate the density of surveillance cameras visible from the road. Across the 16 cities we consider, the estimated number of surveillance cameras per linear kilometer ranges from 0.1 (in Seattle) to 0.9 (in Seoul). In a detailed analysis of the 10 U.S. cities, we find that cameras are concentrated in commercial, industrial, and mixed zones, and in neighborhoods with higher shares of non-white residents---a pattern that persists even after adjusting for land use. These results help inform ongoing discussions on the use of surveillance technology, including its potential disparate impacts on communities of color.

In settings ranging from weather forecasts to political prognostications to financial projections, probability estimates of future binary outcomes often evolve over time. For example, the estimated likelihood of rain on a specific day changes by the hour as new information becomes available. Given a collection of such probability paths, we introduce a Bayesian framework -- which we call the Gaussian latent information martingale, or GLIM -- for modeling the structure of dynamic predictions over time. Suppose, for example, that the likelihood of rain in a week is 50%, and consider two hypothetical scenarios. In the first, one expects the forecast to be equally likely to become either 25% or 75% tomorrow; in the second, one expects the forecast to stay constant for the next several days. A time-sensitive decision-maker might select a course of action immediately in the latter scenario, but may postpone their decision in the former, knowing that new information is imminent. We model these trajectories by assuming predictions update according to a latent process of information flow, which is inferred from historical data. In contrast to general methods for time series analysis, this approach preserves important properties of probability paths such as the martingale structure and appropriate amount of volatility and better quantifies future uncertainties around probability paths. We show that GLIM outperforms three popular baseline methods, producing better estimated posterior probability path distributions measured by three different metrics. By elucidating the dynamic structure of predictions over time, we hope to help individuals make more informed choices.

To emulate the interactivity of in-person math instruction, we developed MathBot, a rule-based chatbot that explains math concepts, provides practice questions, and offers tailored feedback. We evaluated MathBot through three Amazon Mechanical Turk studies in which participants learned about arithmetic sequences. In the first study, we found that more than 40% of our participants indicated a preference for learning with MathBot over videos and written tutorials from Khan Academy. The second study measured learning gains, and found that MathBot produced comparable gains to Khan Academy videos and tutorials. We solicited feedback from users in those two studies to emulate a real-world development cycle, with some users finding the lesson too slow and others finding it too fast. We addressed these concerns in the third and main study by integrating a contextual bandit algorithm into MathBot to personalize the pace of the conversation, allowing the bandit to either insert extra practice problems or skip explanations. We randomized participants between two conditions in which actions were chosen uniformly at random (i.e., a randomized A/B experiment) or by the contextual bandit. We found that the bandit learned a similarly effective pedagogical policy to that learned by the randomized A/B experiment while incurring a lower cost of experimentation. Our findings suggest that personalized conversational agents are promising tools to complement existing online resources for math education, and that data-driven approaches such as contextual bandits are valuable tools for learning effective personalization.