Differential privacy is a particular data privacy-preserving technology which enables synthetic data or statistical analysis results to be released with a minimum disclosure of private information from individual records. The tradeoff between privacy-preserving and utility guarantee is always a challenge for differential privacy technology, especially for synthetic data generation. In this paper, we propose a differentially private data synthesis algorithm for mixed-type data with correlation based on latent factor models. The proposed method can add a relatively small amount of noise to synthetic data under a given level of privacy protection while capturing correlation information. Moreover, the proposed algorithm can generate synthetic data preserving the same data type as mixed-type original data, which greatly improves the utility of synthetic data. The key idea of our method is to perturb the factor matrix and factor loading matrix to construct a synthetic data generation model, and to utilize link functions with privacy protection to ensure consistency of synthetic data type with original data. The proposed method can generate privacy-preserving synthetic data at low computation cost even when the original data is high-dimensional. In theory, we establish differentially private properties of the proposed method. Our numerical studies also demonstrate superb performance of the proposed method on the utility guarantee of the statistical analysis based on privacy-preserved synthetic data.

Recent advances in dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) facilitate the search for optimal treatments, which are tailored to individuals' specific needs and able to maximize their expected clinical benefits. However, existing algorithms relying on consistent trajectories, such as inverse probability weighting estimators (IPWEs), could suffer from insufficient sample size under optimal treatments and a growing number of decision-making stages, particularly in the context of chronic diseases. To address these challenges, we propose a novel individualized learning method which estimates the DTR with a focus on prioritizing alignment between the observed treatment trajectory and the one obtained by the optimal regime across decision stages. By relaxing the restriction that the observed trajectory must be fully aligned with the optimal treatments, our approach substantially improves the sample efficiency and stability of IPWE-based methods. In particular, the proposed learning scheme builds a more general framework which includes the popular outcome weighted learning framework as a special case of ours. Moreover, we introduce the notion of stage importance scores along with an attention mechanism to explicitly account for heterogeneity among decision stages. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed approach, including Fisher consistency and the finite-sample performance bound. Empirically, we evaluate the proposed method in extensive simulated environments and a real case study for the COVID-19 pandemic.

Mediation analysis plays a major role in identifying significant mediators in the pathway between environmental exposures and health outcomes. With advanced data collection technology for large-scale studies, there has been growing research interest in developing methodology for high-dimensional mediation analysis. In this paper we present HIMA2, an extension of the HIMA method (Zhang in Bioinformatics 32:3150-3154, 2016). First, the proposed HIMA2 reduces the dimension of mediators to a manageable level based on the sure independence screening (SIS) method (Fan in J R Stat Soc Ser B 70:849-911, 2008). Second, a de-biased Lasso procedure is implemented for estimating regression parameters. Third, we use a multiple-testing procedure to accurately control the false discovery rate (FDR) when testing high-dimensional mediation hypotheses. We demonstrate its practical performance using Monte Carlo simulation studies and apply our method to identify DNA methylation markers which mediate the pathway from smoking to reduced lung function in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study.

Because of the accessibility of big data collections from consumers, products, and stores, advanced sales forecasting capabilities have drawn great attention from many businesses, especially those in retail, because of the importance of forecasting in decision making. Improvement of forecasting accuracy, even by a small percentage, may have a substantial impact on companies’ production and financial planning, marketing strategies, inventory controls, and supply chain management. Specifically, our research goal is to forecast the sales of each product in each store in the near future. Motivated by tensor factorization methodologies for context-aware recommender systems, we propose a novel approach called the advanced temporal latent factor approach to sales forecasting, or ATLAS for short, which achieves accurate and individualized predictions for sales by building a single tensor factorization model across multiple stores and products. Our contribution is a combination of a tensor framework (to leverage information across stores and products), a new regularization function (to incorporate demand dynamics), and extrapolation of the tensor into future time periods using state-of-the-art statistical (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average models) and machine-learning (recurrent neural networks) models. The advantages of ATLAS are demonstrated on eight product category data sets collected by Information Resources, Inc., where we analyze a total of 165 million weekly sales transactions of over 15,560 products from more than 1,500 grocery stores. Summary of Contribution: Sales forecasting has been a task of long-standing importance. Accurate sales forecasting provides critical managerial implications for companies’ decision making and operations. Improvement of forecasting accuracy may have a substantial impact on companies’ production planning, marketing strategies, inventory controls, and supply chain management, among other things. This paper proposes a novel computational (machine-learning-based) approach to sales forecasting and thus is positioned directly at the intersection of computing and business/operations research.

Recommender systems have been extensively used by the entertainment industry, business marketing and the biomedical industry. In addition to its capacity of providing preference based recommendations as an unsupervised learning methodology, it has been also proven useful in sales forecasting, product introduction and other production related businesses. Since some consumers and companies need a recommendation or prediction for future budget, labor and supply chain coordination, dynamic recommender systems for precise forecasting have become extremely necessary. In this article, we propose a new recommendation method, namely the dynamic tensor recommender system (DTRS), which aims particularly at forecasting future recommendation. The proposed method utilizes a tensor-valued function of time to integrate time and contextual information, and creates a time-varying coefficient model for temporal tensor factorization through a polynomial spline approximation. Major advantages of the proposed method include competitive future recommendation predictions and effective prediction interval estimations. In theory, we establish the convergence rate of the proposed tensor factorization and asymptotic normality of the spline coefficient estimator. The proposed method is applied to simulations, IRI marketing data and Last.fm data. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in terms of future time forecasting.

Recommender systems predict users' preferences over a large number of items by pooling similar information from other users and/or items in the presence of sparse observations. One major challenge is how to utilize user-item specific covariates and networks describing user-item interactions in a high-dimensional situation, for accurate personalized prediction. In this article, we propose a smooth neighborhood recommender in the framework of the latent factor models. A similarity kernel is utilized to borrow neighborhood information from continuous covariates over a user-item specific network, such as a user's social network, where the grouping information defined by discrete covariates is also integrated through the network. Consequently, user-item specific information is built into the recommender to battle the `cold-start” issue in the absence of observations in collaborative and content-based filtering. Moreover, we utilize a “divide-and-conquer” version of the alternating least squares algorithm to achieve scalable computation, and establish asymptotic results for the proposed method, demonstrating that it achieves superior prediction accuracy. Finally, we illustrate that the proposed method improves substantially over its competitors in simulated examples and real benchmark data--Last.fm music data.