Multi-omics profiling characterizes cancer biology and supports biomarker discovery for prognosis and therapy selection. Although numerous computational multi-omics biomarker identification methods have been proposed, their ability to identify clinically relevant biomarkers has not been systematically evaluated, leaving it unclear whether the resulting biomarker nominations are reliable for downstream validation. Here, we systematically benchmark 20 representative statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods using curated gold-standard prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers across five real-world datasets. We evaluate performance in terms of both biomarker identification accuracy and stability. Overall, DeePathNet and DeepKEGG achieve the best performance. Across methods, effective biomarker recovery is associated with the integration of biological knowledge, global feature interactions, multivariate feature attribution, and effective regularization. Analysis of omics type contributions reveals method- and modality-specific biases, highlighting the importance of broader omics integration. We further evaluate methods on simulated datasets to probe sensitivity with controlled signal and noise. By aggregating results from top-performing methods, we construct consensus biomarker panels that nominate candidates for potential investigations. Finally, we provide user-friendly interfaces to allow researchers to benchmark new methods against the 20 baselines or apply selected methods for biomarker identification on custom multi-omics datasets. Our benchmark is publicly available at https://github.com/athanzli/CancerMOBI-Bench.

With the increasing concerns about privacy and data regulations, federated learning (FL) has been emerging as a solution to train machine learning models collaboratively with non-exchangeable data from multiple clients. As a result of data locality, data is usually not identically or independently (non-IID) distributed across clients, and the non-IID property has long been the key challenge in FL. Furthermore, in real-world cross-silo scenarios, it is ubiquitous that clients are organizations owning private data from multiple domains internally, which exacerbates the non-IID issue. For example, in healthcare applications, each client (hospital) gathers data from patients with heterogeneous demographics. While previous works have made efforts to address the non-IID challenge across clients by assuming various relations among client-level data distributions and enabling personalized models at the client level, they ignore the internal data heterogeneity within each client or require explicit data domain indicators, which are hardly accessible in real-world data. Here, we propose Sample-Level Prototypical Federated Learning (SL-PFL) to bridge the gap. SL-PFL incorporates prototypical learning under the FL framework and provides a fine-grained personalized model for each data sample instead of learning one uniform model for all samples of each client. Meanwhile, it can be trained using data without ground-truth domain indicators. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method with sample-level personalized models outperforms existing FL methods with a global model or client-level personalized models on various real-world regression and classification tasks from weather, computer vision, and healthcare applications.

The capability of the reward model (RM) is crucial for the success of Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) in aligning with human preferences. However, as training progresses, the output space distribution of the policy model shifts. The RM, initially trained on responses sampled from the output distribution of the early policy model, gradually loses its ability to distinguish between responses from the newly shifted distribution. This issue is further compounded when the RM, trained on a specific data distribution, struggles to generalize to examples outside of that distribution. These two issues can be united as a challenge posed by the shifted distribution of the environment. To surmount this challenge, we introduce MetaRM, a novel method leveraging meta-learning to adapt the RM to the shifted environment distribution. MetaRM optimizes the RM in an alternating way, by preserving both the preferences of the original preference pairs, as well as maximizing discrimination power over new examples of the shifted distribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MetaRM can iteratively enhance the performance of human preference alignment by improving the RM's capacity to identify subtle differences in samples of shifted distributions.

Shihan Dou, Jiayi Chen, Chenhao Huang, Feng Chen, Wei Chengzhi, Huiyuan Zheng, Shichun Liu, Yan Liu, Chenxiao Liu, Chao Xin, Lin Yan, Zongzhang Zhang, Tao Gui, Qi Zhang, Xuanjing Huang. Proceedings of the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2025.

The rise of Large Visual-Language Models (LVLMs) has unlocked new possibilities for seamlessly integrating visual and textual information. However, their ability to interpret cartographic maps remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce CartoMapQA, a benchmark specifically designed to evaluate LVLMs' understanding of cartographic maps through question-answering tasks. The dataset includes over 2000 samples, each composed of a cartographic map, a question (with open-ended or multiple-choice answers), and a ground-truth answer. These tasks span key low-, mid- and high-level map interpretation skills, including symbol recognition, embedded information extraction, scale interpretation, and route-based reasoning. Our evaluation of both open-source and proprietary LVLMs reveals persistent challenges: models frequently struggle with map-specific semantics, exhibit limited geospatial reasoning, and are prone to Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-related errors. By isolating these weaknesses, CartoMapQA offers a valuable tool for guiding future improvements in LVLM architectures. Ultimately, it supports the development of models better equipped for real-world applications that depend on robust and reliable map understanding, such as navigation, geographic search, and urban planning. Our source code and data are openly available to the research community at: https://github.com/ungquanghuy-kddi/CartoMapQA.git

Commuting Origin-Destination~(OD) flows are critical inputs for urban planning and transportation, providing crucial information about the population residing in one region and working in another within an interested area. Due to the high cost of data collection, researchers have developed physical and computational models to generate commuting OD flows using readily available urban attributes, such as sociodemographics and points of interest, for cities lacking historical OD flows \textemdash commuting OD flow generation. Existing works developed models based on different techniques and achieved improvement on different datasets with different evaluation metrics, which hinderes establishing a unified standard for comparing model performance. To bridge this gap, we introduce a large-scale dataset containing commuting OD flows for 3,333 areas including a wide range of urban environments around the United States. Based on that, we benchmark widely used models for commuting OD flow generation. We surprisingly find that the network-based generative models achieve the optimal performance in terms of both precision and generalization ability, which may inspire new research directions of graph generative modeling in this field. The dataset and benchmark are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/CommutingODGen-Dataset-0D4C/.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly reshaping the landscape of scientific discovery by enabling the development of novel models that tackle complex, data- and computation-intensive problems. Scientific challenges, in turn, provide rich, use-inspired settings that push the boundaries of AI research. This virtuous cycle is increasingly driven by cross-disciplinary collaboration, where advances in AI and domain sciences co-evolve to accelerate innovation. In this plenary panel, we will examine the opportunities and challenges in designing cutting-edge AI models for scientific discovery, and high- light the transformative potential of cross-disciplinary partnerships in shaping the future of both AI and science.

The proposed ''SciSoc LLM Workshop: Large Language Models for Scientific and Societal Advances'' aims to explore the profound implications and potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in driving forward scientific inquiry and addressing critical societal challenges. As LLMs such as GPT-4 continue to redefine boundaries in both complexity and capability, their integration into the scientific and societal domains is not just beneficial but essential. In particular, LLMs have demonstrated substantial value in improving our understanding of complex datasets and generating insights across various fields such as healthcare, environmental science, education, and public policy. By bringing together experts and enthusiasts from diverse fields, the workshop aims to foster a comprehensive understanding of how LLMs can redefine traditional research methodologies. Participants will explore innovative ways to harness the power of LLMs for greater efficiency and innovation in their respective fields, potentially catalyzing a new era of scientific and societal advancement.

A supply chain is the network of entities and processes involved in the production and distribution of a commodity. Supply chains are a critical backbone across industries like retail, manufacturing, healthcare, and automotive, driving everything from product availability to operational efficiency and customer satisfaction. Modern supply chains are 1) non-cooperative, functioning as fragmented systems where isolated technologies solve individual problems without integration, and 2) unadaptable, failing to adjust to real-time data and uncertainties, like demand fluctuations and regulatory changes. As a result, frequent manual overrides are required, as even small errors can lead to significant financial losses, strained customer relationships, or reputational damage. Modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancements offer great potential to unify fragmented supply chains into a seamless, adaptive system while enhancing automation, decision-making, and transparency. In this workshop, we will examine critical supply chain challenges and demonstrate how AI can provide accurate, efficient, and scalable solutions.

The past decade has been an inspiring time for artificial intelligence (AI) research. AI systems have transformed norms and practices across industries and have permeated the fabric of human society. Moreover, AI is ushering in a transformative technological age by making remarkable breakthroughs in a number of scientific fields such as protein structure prediction and medical imaging. There is increasing consensus in the wider scientific community that AI is poised to disrupt science by unlocking entirely new approaches, driving new scientific inquiry, and enabling greater scientific leaps with far-reaching social consequences. However, there are substantial barriers preventing science from realizing that potential, and addressing these barriers will require support for advances in AI methods and the adoption of these methods in routine scientific research. In this special day at KDD 2025, we host a series of talks by distinguished researchers on AI for science.

We introduce EvaLearn, a pioneering benchmark designed to evaluate large language models (LLMs) on their learning capability and efficiency in challenging tasks, a critical, yet underexplored aspect of model potential. EvaLearn contains 648 challenging problems across six task types, grouped into 182 sequences, each sequence dedicated to one task type. Diverging from most existing benchmarks that evaluate models in parallel, EvaLearn requires models to solve problems sequentially, allowing them to leverage the experience gained from previous solutions. EvaLearn provides five comprehensive automated metrics to evaluate models and quantify their learning capability and efficiency. We extensively benchmark nine frontier models and observe varied performance profiles: some models, such as Claude-3.7-sonnet, start with moderate initial performance but exhibit strong learning ability, while some models struggle to benefit from experience and may even show negative transfer. Moreover, we investigate model performance under two learning settings and find that instance-level rubrics and teacher-model feedback further facilitate model learning. Importantly, we observe that current LLMs with stronger static abilities do not show a clear advantage in learning capability across all tasks, highlighting that EvaLearn evaluates a new dimension of model performance. We hope EvaLearn provides a novel evaluation perspective for assessing LLM potential and understanding the gap between models and human capabilities, promoting the development of deeper and more dynamic evaluation approaches. All datasets, the automatic evaluation framework, and the results studied in this paper are available in the supplementary materials.

Recent advancements in deep learning and artificial intelligence have driven significant progress in time series modeling and analysis. On one hand, researchers seek breakthroughs in performance on classical tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. On the other hand, it is intriguing to explore the potential for answering more complex inference and reasoning tasks from time series. In this keynote, I will examine the pathways toward foundation models for time series and discuss future research directions in this rapidly evolving field.

Time series forecasting is an essential area of machine learning with a wide range of real-world applications. Most of the previous forecasting models aim to capture dynamic characteristics from uni-modal numerical historical data. Although extra knowledge can boost the time series forecasting performance, it is hard to collect such information. In addition, how to fuse the multimodal information is non-trivial. In this paper, we first propose a general principle of collecting the corresponding textual information from different data sources with the help of modern large language models (LLM). Then, we propose a prompt-based LLM framework to utilize both the numerical data and the textual information simultaneously, named GPT4MTS. In practice, we propose a GDELT-based multimodal time series dataset for news impact forecasting, which provides a concise and well-structured version of time series dataset with textual information for further research in communication. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method on forecasting tasks with extra-textual information.

Shihan Dou, Yan Liu, Haoxiang Jia, Enyu Zhou, Limao Xiong, Junjie Shan, Caishuang Huang, Xiao Wang, Xiaoran Fan, Zhiheng Xi, Yuhao Zhou, Tao Ji, Rui Zheng, Qi Zhang, Tao Gui, Xuanjing Huang. Proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2024.

Shihan Dou, Enyu Zhou, Yan Liu, Songyang Gao, Wei Shen, Limao Xiong, Yuhao Zhou, Xiao Wang, Zhiheng Xi, Xiaoran Fan, Shiliang Pu, Jiang Zhu, Rui Zheng, Tao Gui, Qi Zhang, Xuanjing Huang. Proceedings of the 62nd Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2024.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the design of prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in different types of time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on zero shot setting for a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets but also in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Pre-trained Language models (PLMs) have been acknowledged to contain harmful information, such as social biases, which may cause negative social impacts or even bring catastrophic results in application. Previous works on this problem mainly focused on using black-box methods such as probing to detect and quantify social biases in PLMs by observing model outputs. As a result, previous debiasing methods mainly finetune or even pre-train PLMs on newly constructed anti-stereotypical datasets, which are high-cost. In this work, we try to unveil the mystery of social bias inside language models by introducing the concept of {\sc Social Bias Neurons}. Specifically, we propose {\sc Integrated Gap Gradients (IG$^2$)} to accurately pinpoint units (i.e., neurons) in a language model that can be attributed to undesirable behavior, such as social bias. By formalizing undesirable behavior as a distributional property of language, we employ sentiment-bearing prompts to elicit classes of sensitive words (demographics) correlated with such sentiments. Our IG$^2$ thus attributes the uneven distribution for different demographics to specific Social Bias Neurons, which track the trail of unwanted behavior inside PLM units to achieve interoperability. Moreover, derived from our interpretable technique, {\sc Bias Neuron Suppression (BNS)} is further proposed to mitigate social biases. By studying BERT, RoBERTa, and their attributable differences from debiased FairBERTa, IG$^2$ allows us to locate and suppress identified neurons, and further mitigate undesired behaviors. As measured by prior metrics from StereoSet, our model achieves a higher degree of fairness while maintaining language modeling ability with low cost\footnote{This work contains examples that potentially implicate stereotypes, associations, and other harms that could be offensive to individuals in certain social groups.}.

Large language models (LLMs) have gained considerable attention for their excellent natural language processing capabilities. Nonetheless, these LLMs present many challenges, particularly in the realm of trustworthiness. This paper introduces TrustLLM, a comprehensive study of trustworthiness in LLMs, including principles for different dimensions of trustworthiness, established benchmark, evaluation, and analysis of trustworthiness for mainstream LLMs, and discussion of open challenges and future directions. Specifically, we first propose a set of principles for trustworthy LLMs that span eight different dimensions. Based on these principles, we further establish a benchmark across six dimensions including truthfulness, safety, fairness, robustness, privacy, and machine ethics. We then present a study evaluating 16 mainstream LLMs in TrustLLM, consisting of over 30 datasets. Our findings firstly show that in general trustworthiness and capability (i.e., functional effectiveness) are positively related. Secondly, our observations reveal that proprietary LLMs generally outperform most open-source counterparts in terms of trustworthiness, raising concerns about the potential risks of widely accessible open-source LLMs. However, a few open-source LLMs come very close to proprietary ones, suggesting that open-source models can achieve high levels of trustworthiness without additional mechanisms like moderator, offering valuable insights for developers in this field. Thirdly, it is important to note that some LLMs may be overly calibrated towards exhibiting trustworthiness, to the extent that they compromise their utility by mistakenly treating benign prompts as harmful and consequently not responding. Besides these observations, we’ve uncovered key insights into the multifaceted trustworthiness in LLMs. We emphasize the importance of ensuring transparency not only in the models themselves but also in the technologies that underpin trustworthiness. We advocate that the establishment of an AI alliance between industry, academia, the open-source community to foster collaboration is imperative to advance the trustworthiness of LLMs.

Counterfactual estimation from observations represents a critical endeavor in numerous application fields, such as healthcare and finance, with the primary challenge being the mitigation of treatment bias. The balancing strategy aimed at reducing covariate disparities between different treatment groups serves as a universal solution. However, when it comes to the time series data, the effectiveness of balancing strategies remains an open question, with a thorough analysis of the robustness and applicability of balancing strategies still lacking. This paper revisits counterfactual estimation in the temporal setting and provides a brief overview of recent advancements in balancing strategies. More importantly, we conduct a critical empirical examination for the effectiveness of the balancing strategies within the realm of temporal counterfactual estimation in various settings on multiple datasets. Our findings could be of significant interest to researchers and practitioners and call for a reexamination of the balancing strategy in time series settings.

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting (MLTSF), applicable across various domains, has gained increasing research attention. Channel-independent (CI) models, including Linear and Transformer-based architectures, have recently achieved state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance for MLTSF. Notably, Linear models can deliver satisfactory forecasting performance even with just a single linear projection layer. However, we identify a limitation in this architecture: a single linear projection struggles to adequately capture the inter- and intra-variate heterogeneity in temporal patterns. Similarly, any complex models like Transformer-based models that use a single projection layer to generate final predictions, may face capacity bottlenecks. To overcome this, we propose the Mixture of Projection Experts (MoPE), which replaces the single linear projection with multiple projection branches, and employs a gate network to dynamically assign weights to each branch based on the input data. We applied MoPE to multiple SOTA models and evaluated it on nine real-world datasets. Results show that MoPE boosts forecasting accuracy by an average of 9.59%, demonstrating its effectiveness in mitigating the limitations of a single projection layer. Additionally, our experiments demonstrate that integrating our proposal into CI models enhances their generalization to unseen variates. Interpretability analysis also reveals MoPE's ability to disentangle different temporal patterns. Overall, our paper establishes MoPE as an effective solution for MLTSF tasks.

Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under simulation models. This has led to the rise of simulation-based inference (SBI), a class of machine learning-enabled techniques for approaching inverse problems with stochastic simulators. Many such methods, however, require large numbers of simulation samples and face difficulty scaling to high-dimensional settings, often making inference prohibitive under resource-intensive simulators. To mitigate these drawbacks, we introduce active sequential neural posterior estimation (ASNPE). ASNPE brings an active learning scheme into the inference loop to estimate the utility of simulation parameter candidates to the underlying probabilistic model. The proposed acquisition scheme is easily integrated into existing posterior estimation pipelines, allowing for improved sample efficiency with low computational overhead. We further demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in the travel demand calibration setting, a high-dimensional inverse problem commonly requiring computationally expensive traffic simulators. Our method outperforms well-tuned benchmarks and state-of-the-art posterior estimation methods on a large-scale real-world traffic network, as well as demonstrates a performance advantage over non-active counterparts on a suite of SBI benchmark environments.

Causal analysis for time series data, in particular estimating individualized treatment effect (ITE), is a key task in many real world applications, such as finance, retail, healthcare, etc. Real world time series, i.e., large-scale irregular or sparse and intermittent time series, raise significant challenges to existing work attempting to estimate treatment effects. Specifically, the existence of hidden confounders can lead to biased treatment estimates and complicate the causal inference process. In particular, anomaly hidden confounders which exceed the typical range can lead to high variance estimates. Moreover, in continuous time settings with irregular samples, it is challenging to directly handle the dynamics of causality. In this paper, we leverage recent advances in Lipschitz regularization and neural controlled differential equations (CDE) to develop an effective and scalable solution, namely LipCDE, to address the above challenges. LipCDE can directly model the dynamic causal relationships between historical data and outcomes with irregular samples by considering the boundary of hidden confounders given by Lipschitz constrained neural networks. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of LipCDE.

SongYang Gao, Shihan Dou, Yan Liu, Xiao Wang, Qi Zhang, Zhongyu Wei, Jin Ma, Ying Shan. Proceedings of the 61st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2023.

Content Warning: This work contains examples that potentially implicate stereotypes, associations, and other harms that could be offensive to individuals in certain social groups.Large pre-trained language models are acknowledged to carry social biases towards different demographics, which can further amplify existing stereotypes in our society and cause even more harm.Text-to-SQL is an important task, models of which are mainly adopted by authoritative institutions, where unfair decisions may lead to catastrophic consequences.However, existing Text-to-SQL models are trained on clean, neutral datasets, such as Spider and WikiSQL.This, to some extent, cover up social bias in models under ideal conditions, which nevertheless may emerge in real application scenarios.In this work, we aim to uncover and categorize social biases in Text-to-SQL models.We summarize the categories of social biases that may occur in structured data for Text-to-SQL models.We build test benchmarks and reveal that models with similar task accuracy can contain social biases at very different rates.We show how to take advantage of our methodology to uncover and assess social biases in the downstream Text-to-SQL task 1 .

Advances in representation learning have led to great success in understanding and generating data in various domains. However, in modeling vector graphics data, the pure data-driven approach often yields unsatisfactory results in downstream tasks as existing deep learning methods often require the quantization of SVG parameters and cannot exploit the geometric properties explicitly. In this paper, we propose a transformer-based representation learning model (SVG-former) that directly operates on continuous input values and manipulates the geometric information of SVG to encode outline details and long-distance dependencies. SVGfomer can be used for various downstream tasks: reconstruction, classification, interpolation, retrieval, etc. We have conducted extensive experiments on vector font and icon datasets to show that our model can capture high-quality representation information and outperform the previous state-of-the-art on downstream tasks significantly.

With the popularity of automatic code generation tools, such as Copilot, the study of the potential hazards of these tools is gaining importance. In this work, we explore the social bias problem in pre-trained code generation models. We propose a new paradigm to construct code prompts and successfully uncover social biases in code generation models. To quantify the severity of social biases in generated code, we develop a dataset along with three metrics to evaluate the overall social bias and fine-grained unfairness across different demographics. Experimental results on three pre-trained code generation models (Codex, InCoder, and CodeGen) with varying sizes, reveal severe social biases. Moreover, we conduct analysis to provide useful insights for further choice of code generation models with low social bias.

Meta-learning enables quick adaptation of machine learning models to new tasks with limited data. While tasks could come from varying distributions in reality, most of the existing meta-learning methods consider both training and testing tasks as from the same uni-component distribution, overlooking two critical needs of a practical solution: (1) the various sources of tasks may compose a multi-component mixture distribution, and (2) novel tasks may come from a distribution that is unseen during meta-training. In this paper, we demonstrate these two challenges can be solved jointly by modeling the density of task instances. We develop a meta-training framework underlain by a novel Hierarchical Gaussian Mixture based Task Generative Model (HTGM). HTGM extends the widely used empirical process of sampling tasks to a theoretical model, which learns task embeddings, fits the mixture distribution of tasks, and enables density-based scoring of novel tasks. The framework is agnostic to the encoder and scales well with large backbone networks. The model parameters are learned end-to-end by maximum likelihood estimation via an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets indicate the effectiveness of our method for both sample classification and novel task detection.

A major issue with real-time monitoring is to collect complete data. Hardware or software failures, network issues or, more frequently, time delays can disrupt such a collection. This results in having two versions of the same information: one in real-time but with potentially missing data, and the another, albeit complete, is delayed. Many works have studied how to handle missing data for classification and prediction. However, to the best of our knowledge, they do not consider how to leverage the delayed complete data to assist in learning the representation of real-time available data with missing values. This is despite the fact that the delayed complete data contain all the information (e.g., periodicities and trends). In this paper, we propose a framework to enhance the representation learning of the real-time available data by aligning the representation of past real-time but with missing data to that of past delayed but complete data. We test both a distance metric and contrastive learning to achieve this alignment. We implement our framework on a Transformer-based model and experiment it on three datasets. The efficiency of our solution is evaluated against seven baselines and considering four distinct patterns of missing data. Our experiments show that this proposal has a significant improvement in prediction accuracy (5.21% on average) over the baselines.

Learning effective embeddings for potentially irregularly sampled time-series, evolving at different time scales, is fundamental for machine learning tasks such as classification and clustering. Task-dependent embeddings rely on similarities between data samples to learn effective geometries. However, many popular time-series similarity measures are not valid distance metrics, and as a result they do not reliably capture the intricate relationships between the multi-variate time-series data samples for learning effective embeddings. One of the primary ways to formulate an accurate distance metric is by forming distance estimates via Monte-Carlo-based expectation evaluations. However, the high-dimensionality of the underlying distribution, and the inability to sample from it, pose significant challenges. To this end, we develop an Importance Sampling based distance metric -- I-SEA -- which enjoys the properties of a metric while consistently achieving superior performance for machine learning tasks such as classification and representation learning. I-SEA leverages Importance Sampling and Non-parametric Density Estimation to adaptively estimate distances, enabling implicit estimation from the underlying high-dimensional distribution, resulting in improved accuracy and reduced variance. We theoretically establish the properties of I-SEA and demonstrate its capabilities via experimental evaluations on real-world healthcare datasets.

Weakly supervised scene graph parsing, which learns structured image representations without annotated correspondences between graph nodes and visual objects, has been prevalent in recent computer vision research. Existing methods mainly focus on designing task-specific loss functions, model architectures, or optimization algorithms. We argue that correspondences between objects and graph nodes are crucial for the weakly supervised scene graph parsing task and are worth learning explicitly. Thus we propose GroParser, a framework that improves weakly supervised scene graph parsing models by grounding visual objects. The proposed weakly supervised grounding method learns a metric among visual objects and scene graph nodes by incorporating information from both object features and relational features. Specifically, we apply multi-instance learning to learn the object category information and exploit a two-stream graph neural network to model the relational similarity metric. Extensive experiments on the scene graph parsing task verify the grounding found by our model can reinforce the performance of the existing weakly supervised scene graph parsing methods, including the current state-of-the-art. Further experiments on Visual Genome (VG) and Visual Relation Detection (VRD) datasets verify that our model brings an improvement on scene graph grounding task over existing approaches.

Spatiotemporal data aggregated over regions or time windows at various resolutions demonstrate heterogeneous patterns and dynamics in each resolution. Meanwhile, the multi-resolution characteristic provides rich contextual information, which is critical for effective long-sequence forecasting. The importance of such inter-resolution information is more significant in practical cases, where fine-grained data is usually collected via approaches with lower costs but also lower qualities compared to those for coarse-grained data. However, existing works focus on uni-resolution data and cannot be directly applied to fully utilize the aforementioned extra information in multi-resolution data. In this work, we propose Spatiotemporal Koopman Multi-Resolution Network (ST-KMRN), a physics-informed learning framework for long-sequence forecasting from multi-resolution spatiotemporal data. Our method jointly models data aggregated in multiple resolutions and captures the inter-resolution dynamics with the self-attention mechanism. We also propose downsampling and upsampling modules among resolutions to further strengthen the connections among data of multiple resolutions. Moreover, we enhance the modeling of intra-resolution dynamics with physics-informed modules based on Koopman theory. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves the best performance on the long-sequence forecasting tasks compared to baselines without a specific design for multi-resolution data.

There is currently a large gap in performance between the statistically rigorous methods like linear regression or additive splines and the powerful deep methods using neural networks. Previous works attempting to close this gap have failed to fully consider the exponentially growing number of feature combinations which deep networks consider automatically during training. In this work, we develop a tractable selection algorithm to efficiently identify the necessary feature combinations by leveraging techniques in feature interaction detection.Our proposed Sparse Interaction Additive Networks (SIAN) construct a bridge from these simple and interpretable models to a fully connected neural network. SIAN achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods across multiple large-scale tabular datasets and consistently finds an optimal tradeoff between the modeling capacity of neural networks and the generalizability of simpler methods.

Recent years have witnessed the rise of misinformation campaigns that spread specific narratives on social media to manipulate public opinions on different areas, such as politics and healthcare. Consequently, an effective and efficient automatic methodology to estimate the influence of the misinformation on user beliefs and activities is needed. However, existing works on misinformation impact estimation either rely on small-scale psychological experiments or can only discover the correlation between user behaviour and misinformation. To address these issues, in this paper, we build up a causal framework that model the causal effect of misinformation from the perspective of temporal point process. To adapt the large-scale data, we design an efficient yet precise way to estimate the \textbf{Individual Treatment Effect} (ITE) via neural temporal point process and gaussian mixture models. Extensive experiments on synthetic dataset verify the effectiveness and efficiency of our model. We further apply our model on a real-world dataset of social media posts and engagements about COVID-19 vaccines. The experimental results indicate that our model recognized identifiable causal effect of misinformation that hurts people's subjective emotions toward the vaccines.

Malicious accounts spreading misinformation has led to widespread false and misleading narratives in recent times, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, and social media platforms struggle to eliminate these contents rapidly. This is because adapting to new domains requires human intensive fact-checking that is slow and difficult to scale. To address this challenge, we propose to leverage news-source credibility labels as weak labels for social media posts and propose model-guided refinement of labels to construct large-scale, diverse misinformation labeled datasets in new domains. The weak labels can be inaccurate at the article or social media post level where the stance of the user does not align with the news source or article credibility. We propose a framework to use a detection model self-trained on the initial weak labels with uncertainty sampling based on entropy in predictions of the model to identify potentially inaccurate labels and correct for them using self-supervision or relabeling. The framework will incorporate social context of the post in terms of the community of its associated user for surfacing inaccurate labels towards building a large-scale dataset with minimum human effort. To provide labeled datasets with distinction of misleading narratives where information might be missing significant context or has inaccurate ancillary details, the proposed framework will use the few labeled samples as class prototypes to separate high confidence samples into false, unproven, mixture, mostly false, mostly true, true, and debunk information. The approach is demonstrated for providing a large-scale misinformation dataset on COVID-19 vaccines.

Modeling the dynamics of real-world physical systems is critical for spatiotemporal prediction tasks, but challenging when data is limited. The scarcity of real-world data and the difficulty in reproducing the data distribution hinder directly applying meta-learning techniques. Although the knowledge of governing partial differential equations (PDE) of the data can be helpful for the fast adaptation to few observations, it is mostly infeasible to exactly find the equation for observations in real-world physical systems. In this work, we propose a framework, physics-aware meta-learning with auxiliary tasks, whose spatial modules incorporate PDE-independent knowledge and temporal modules utilize the generalized features from the spatial modules to be adapted to the limited data, respectively. The framework is inspired by a local conservation law expressed mathematically as a continuity equation and does not require the exact form of governing equation to model the spatiotemporal observations. The proposed method mitigates the need for a large number of real-world tasks for meta-learning by leveraging spatial information in simulated data to meta-initialize the spatial modules. We apply the proposed framework to both synthetic and real-world spatiotemporal prediction tasks and demonstrate its superior performance with limited observations.

Recent studies have demonstrated that deep learning models can discriminate based on protected classes like race and gender. In this work, we evaluate bias present in deepfake datasets and detection models across protected subgroups. Using facial datasets balanced by race and gender, we examine three popular deepfake detectors and find large disparities in predictive performances across races, with up to 10.7% difference in error rate between subgroups. A closer look reveals that the widely used FaceForensics++ dataset is overwhelmingly composed of Caucasian subjects, with the majority being female Caucasians. Our investigation of the racial distribution of deepfakes reveals that the methods used to create deepfakes as positive training signals tend to produce ``irregular" faces - when a person’s face is swapped onto another person of a different race or gender. This causes detectors to learn spurious correlations between the foreground faces and fakeness. Moreover, when detectors are trained with the Blended Image (BI) dataset from Face X-Rays, we find that those detectors develop systematic discrimination towards certain racial subgroups, primarily female Asians.

Vast amount of data generated from networks of sensors, wearables, and the Internet of Things (IoT) devices underscores the need for advanced modeling techniques that leverage the spatio-temporal structure of decentralized data due to the need for edge computation and licensing (data access) issues. While federated learning (FL) has emerged as a framework for model training without requiring direct data sharing and exchange, effectively modeling the complex spatio-temporal dependencies to improve forecasting capabilities still remains an open problem. On the other hand, state-of-the-art spatio-temporal forecasting models assume unfettered access to the data, neglecting constraints on data sharing. To bridge this gap, we propose a federated spatio-temporal model -- Cross-Node Federated Graph Neural Network (CNFGNN) -- which explicitly encodes the underlying graph structure using graph neural network (GNN)-based architecture under the constraint of cross-node federated learning, which requires that data in a network of nodes is generated locally on each node and remains decentralized. CNFGNN operates by disentangling the temporal dynamics modeling on devices and spatial dynamics on the server, utilizing alternating optimization to reduce the communication cost, facilitating computations on the edge devices. Experiments on the traffic flow forecasting task show that CNFGNN achieves the best forecasting performance in both transductive and inductive learning settings with no extra computation cost on edge devices, while incurring modest communication cost.

Disinformation campaigns on social media, involving coordinated activities from malicious accounts towards manipulating public opinion, have become increasingly prevalent. Existing approaches to detect coordinated accounts either make very strict assumptions about coordinated behaviours, or require part of the malicious accounts in the coordinated group to be revealed in order to detect the rest. To address these drawbacks, we propose a generative model, AMDN-HAGE (Attentive Mixture Density Network with Hidden Account Group Estimation) which jointly models account activities and hidden group behaviours based on Temporal Point Processes (TPP) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), to capture inherent characteristics of coordination which is, accounts that coordinate must strongly influence each other's activities, and collectively appear anomalous from normal accounts. To address the challenges of optimizing the proposed model, we provide a bilevel optimization algorithm with theoretical guarantee on convergence. We verified the effectiveness of the proposed method and training algorithm on real-world social network data collected from Twitter related to coordinated campaigns from Russia's Internet Research Agency targeting the 2016 U.S. Presidential Elections, and to identify coordinated campaigns related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging the learned model, we find that the average influence between coordinated account pairs is the highest. On COVID-19, we found coordinated group spreading anti-vaccination, anti-masks conspiracies that suggest the pandemic is a hoax and political scam.

Recent years have witnessed an increasing use of coordinated accounts on social media, operated by misinformation campaigns to influence public opinion and manipulate social outcomes. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop an effective methodology for coordinated group detection to combat the misinformation on social media. However, existing works suffer from various drawbacks, such as, either limited performance due to extreme reliance on predefined signatures of coordination, or instead an inability to address the natural sparsity of account activities on social media with useful prior domain knowledge. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a coordination detection framework incorporating neural temporal point process with prior knowledge such as temporal logic or pre-defined filtering functions. Specifically, when modeling the observed data from social media with neural temporal point process, we jointly learn a Gibbs-like distribution of group assignment based on how consistent an assignment is to (1) the account embedding space and (2) the prior knowledge. To address the challenge that the distribution is hard to be efficiently computed and sampled from, we design a theoretically guaranteed variational inference approach to learn a mean-field approximation for it. Experimental results on a real-world dataset show the effectiveness of our proposed method compared to the SOTA model in both unsupervised and semi-supervised settings. We further apply our model on a COVID-19 Vaccine Tweets dataset. The detection result suggests the presence of suspicious coordinated efforts on spreading misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines.

Resource allocation for coverage of geographical spaces is a challenging problem in robotics, sensor networks and security domains. Conventional solution approaches either: (a) rely on exploiting spatio-temporal structure of specific coverage problems, or (b) use genetic algorithms when targeting general coverage problems where no special exploitable structure exists. In this work, we propose the coverage gradient theorem, which provides a gradient estimator for a broad class of spatial coverage objectives using a combination of Newton-Leibniz theorem and implicit boundary differentiation. We also propose a tractable framework to approximate the coverage objectives and their gradients using spatial discretization and empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our framework on multi-resource spatial coverage problems.

In this paper we propose a novel human-centered approach for detecting forgery in face images, using dynamic prototypes as a form of visual explanations. Currently, most state-of-the-art deepfake detections are based on black-box models that process videos frame-by-frame for inference, and few closely examine their temporal inconsistencies. However, the existence of such temporal artifacts within deepfake videos is key in detecting and explaining deepfakes to a supervising human. To this end, we propose Dynamic Prototype Network (DPNet) - an interpretable and effective solution that utilizes dynamic representations (i.e., prototypes) to explain deepfake temporal artifacts. Extensive experimental results show that DPNet achieves competitive predictive performance, even on unseen testing datasets such as Google's DeepFakeDetection, DeeperForensics, and Celeb-DF, while providing easy referential explanations of deepfake dynamics. On top of DPNet's prototypical framework, we further formulate temporal logic specifications based on these dynamics to check our model's compliance to desired temporal behaviors, hence providing trustworthiness for such critical detection systems.

Understanding and modeling behavior of multi-agent systems is a central step for artificial intelligence. Here we present a deep generative model which captures behavior generating process of multi-agent systems, supports accurate predictions and inference, infers how agents interact in a complex system, as well as identifies agent groups and interaction types. Built upon advances in deep generative models and a novel attention mechanism, our model can learn interactions in highly heterogeneous systems with linear complexity in the number of agents. We apply this model to three multi-agent systems in different domains and evaluate performance on a diverse set of tasks including behavior prediction, interaction analysis and system identification. Experimental results demonstrate its ability to model multi-agent systems, yielding improved performance over competitive baselines. We also show the model can successfully identify agent groups and interaction types in these systems. Our model offers new opportunities to predict complex multi-agent behaviors and takes a step forward in understanding interactions in multi-agent systems.

Predicting Origin-Destination (OD) flow is a crucial problem for intelligent transportation. However, it is extremely challenging because of three reasons: first, correlations exist between both origins and destinations; second, the correlations are dynamic across the time; at last, there are multiple correlations from different aspects. To the best of our knowledge, existing models for OD flow prediction cannot tackle all of these three issues simultaneously. We propose Multi-Perspective Graph Convolutional Networks (MPGCN) to capture the complex dependencies. Our proposed model first utilizes long short-term memory (LSTM) network to extract temporal features for each OD pair and then learns the spatial dependency of origins and destinations by a two-dimensional graph convolutional network. Furthermore, we design a dynamic graph together with two static graphs to capture the complicated spatial dependencies and use an average strategy to obtain the final predicted OD flow. We conduct extensive experiments on two large-scale and real-world datasets, which not only demonstrate our design philosophy but also validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Trajectory prediction for scenes with multiple agents and entities is a challenging problem in numerous domains such as traffic prediction, pedestrian tracking and path planning. We present a general architecture to address this challenge which models the crucial inductive biases of motion, namely, inertia, relative motion, intents and interactions. Specifically, we propose a relational model to flexibly model interactions between agents in diverse environments. Since it is well-known that human decision making is fuzzy by nature, at the core of our model lies a novel attention mechanism which models interactions by making continuous-valued (fuzzy) decisions and learning the corresponding responses. Our architecture demonstrates significant performance gains over existing state-of-the-art predictive models in diverse domains such as human crowd trajectories, US freeway traffic, NBA sports data and physics datasets. We also present ablations and augmentations to understand the decision-making process and the source of gains in our model.

Machine learning transparency calls for interpretable explanations of how inputs relate to predictions. Feature attribution is a way to analyze the impact of features on predictions. Feature interactions are the contextual dependence between features that jointly impact predictions. There are a number of methods that extract feature interactions in prediction models; however, the methods that assign attributions to interactions are either uninterpretable, model-specific, or non-axiomatic. We propose an interaction attribution and detection framework called Archipelago which addresses these problems and is also scalable in real-world settings. Our experiments on standard annotation labels indicate our approach provides significantly more interpretable explanations than comparable methods, which is important for analyzing the impact of interactions on predictions. We also provide accompanying visualizations of our approach that give new insights into deep neural networks.

Region-level demand forecasting is an essential task in ridehailing services. Accurate ride-hailing demand forecasting can guide vehicle dispatching, improve vehicle utilization, reduce the wait-time, and mitigate traffic congestion. This task is challenging due to the complicated spatiotemporal dependencies among regions. Existing approaches mainly focus on modeling the Euclidean correlations among spatially adjacent regions while we observe that non-Euclidean pair-wise correlations among possibly distant regions are also critical for accurate forecasting. In this paper, we propose the spatiotemporal multi-graph convolution network (ST-MGCN), a novel deep learning model for ride-hailing demand forecasting. We first encode the non-Euclidean pair-wise correlations among regions into multiple graphs and then explicitly model these correlations using multi-graph convolution. To utilize the global contextual information in modeling the temporal correlation, we further propose contextual gated recurrent neural network which augments recurrent neural network with a contextual-aware gating mechanism to re-weights different historical observations. We evaluate the proposed model on two real-world large scale ride-hailing demand datasets and observe consistent improvement of more than 10% over stateof-the-art baselines.

On-demand taxi-calling platforms often ignore the social engagement of individual drivers. The lack of social incentives impairs the work enthusiasms of drivers and will affect the quality of service. In this paper, we propose to form teams among drivers to promote participation. A team consists of a leader and multiple members, which acts as the basis for various group-based incentives such as competition. We define the Recommendation-based Team Formation (RTF) problem to form as many teams as possible while accounting for the choices of drivers. The RTF problem is challenging. It needs both accurate recommendation and coordination among recommendations, since each driver can be in at most one team. To solve the RTF problem, we devise a Recommendation-Matrix-Based Framework (RMBF). It first estimates the acceptance probability of recommendations and then derives a recommendation matrix to maximize the number of formed teams from a global view. We conduct trace-driven simulations using real data covering over 64,000 drivers and deploy our solution on a large on-demand taxi-calling platform for online evaluations. Experimental results show that RMBF outperforms the greedy-based strategy by forming up to 20% and 12.4% teams in trace-driven simulations and online evaluations, and the drivers who form teams and are involved in the competition have more service time, number of finished orders and income.

Low-rank tensor factorization has been widely used for many real world tensor completion problems. While most existing factorization models assume a multilinearity relationship between tensor entries and their corresponding factors, real world tensors tend to have more complex interactions than multilinearity. In many recent works, it is observed that multilinear models perform worse than nonlinear models. We identify one potential reason for this inferior performance: the nonlinearity inside data obfuscates the underlying low-rank structure such that the tensor seems to be a high-rank tensor. Solving this problem requires a model to simultaneously capture the complex interactions and preserve the low-rank structure. In addition, the model should be scalable and robust to missing observations in order to learn from large yet sparse real world tensors. We propose a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) based model, named CoSTCo (Convolutional Sparse Tensor Completion). Our model leverages the expressive power of CNN to model the complex interactions inside tensors and its parameter sharing scheme to preserve the desired low-rank structure. CoSTCo is scalable as it does not involve computation- or memory- heavy tasks such as Kronecker product. We conduct extensive experiments on several real world large sparse tensors and the experimental results show that our model clearly outperforms both linear and nonlinear state-of-the-art tensor completion methods.

Sparse reduced-rank regression is an important tool for uncovering meaningful dependence structure between large numbers of predictors and responses in many big data applications such as genome-wide association studies and social media analysis. Despite the recent theoretical and algorithmic advances, scalable estimation of sparse reduced-rank regression remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we suggest a scalable procedure called sequential estimation with eigen-decomposition (SEED) which needs only a single top-$r$ sparse singular value decomposition from a generalized eigenvalue problem to find the optimal low-rank and sparse matrix estimate. Our suggested method is not only scalable but also performs simultaneous dimensionality reduction and variable selection. Under some mild regularity conditions, we show that SEED enjoys nice sampling properties including consistency in estimation, rank selection, prediction, and model selection. Moreover, SEED employs only basic matrix operations that can be efficiently parallelized in high performance computing devices. Numerical studies on synthetic and real data sets show that SEED outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches for large-scale matrix estimation problem.

The proliferation of fake news on social media has opened up new directions of research for timely identification and containment of fake news and mitigation of its widespread impact on public opinion. While much of the earlier research was focused on identification of fake news based on its contents or by exploiting users’ engagements with the news on social media, there has been a rising interest in proactive intervention strategies to counter the spread of misinformation and its impact on society. In this survey, we describe the modern-day problem of fake news and, in particular, highlight the technical challenges associated with it. We discuss existing methods and techniques applicable to both identification and mitigation, with a focus on the significant advances in each method and their advantages and limitations. In addition, research has often been limited by the quality of existing datasets and their specific application contexts. To alleviate this problem, we comprehensively compile and summarize characteristic features of available datasets. Furthermore, we outline new directions of research to facilitate future development of effective and interdisciplinary solutions.

A wealth of algorithms centered around (integer) linear programming have been proposed to compute equilibrium strategies in security games with discrete states and actions. However, in practice many domains possess continuous state and action spaces. In this paper, we consider a continuous space security game model with infinite-size action sets for players and present a novel deep learning based approach to extend the existing toolkit for solving security games. Specifically, we present (i) OptGradFP, a novel and general algorithm that searches for the optimal defender strategy in a parameterized continuous search space, and can also be used to learn policies over multiple game states simultaneously; (ii) OptGradFP-NN, a convolutional neural network based implementation of OptGradFP for continuous space security games. We demonstrate the potential to predict good defender strategies via experiments and analysis of OptGradFP and OptGradFP-NN on discrete and continuous game settings.

More than 1 million homicides, robberies, and aggravated assaults occur in the United States each year. These crimes are often further classified into different types based on the circumstances surrounding the crime (e.g., domestic violence, gang-related). Despite recent technological advances in AI and machine learning, these additional classification tasks are still done manually by specially trained police officers. In this paper, we provide the first attempt to develop a more automatic system for classifying crimes. In particular, we study the question of classifying whether a given violent crime is gang-related. We introduce a novel Partially Generative Neural Networks (PGNN) that is able to accurately classify gang-related crimes both when full information is available and when there is only partial information. Our PGNN is the first generative-classification model that enables to work when some features of the test examples are missing. Using a crime event dataset from Los Angeles covering 2014-2016, we experimentally show that our PGNN outperforms all other typically used classifiers for the problem of classifying gang-related violent crimes.

The problem of low-rank matrix completion is continually attracting attention for its applicability to many real-world problems. Still, the large size, extreme sparsity, and non-uniformity of these matrices pose a challenge. In this paper, we make the observation that even when the observed matrix is too sparse for accurate completion, there may be portions of the data where completion is still possible. We propose the completeID algorithm, which exploits the non-uniformity of the observation, to analyze the completability of the input instead of blindly applying completion. Balancing statistical accuracy with computational efficiency, we relate completability to edge-connectivity of the graph associated with the input partially-observed matrix. We develop the MaxKCD algorithm for finding maximally k-edge-connected components efficiently. Experiments across datasets from a variety of applications demonstrate not only the success of completeID but also the importance of completability analysis.

Low-rank tensor regression, a new model class that learns high-order correlation from data, has recently received considerable attention. At the same time, Gaussian processes (GP) are well-studied machine learning models for structure learning. In this paper, we demonstrate interesting connections between the two, especially for multi-way data analysis. We show that low-rank tensor regression is essentially learning a multi-linear kernel in Gaussian processes, and the low-rank assumption translates to the constrained Bayesian inference problem. We prove the oracle inequality and derive the average case learning curve for the equivalent GP model. Our finding implies that low-rank tensor regression, though empirically successful, is highly dependent on the eigenvalues of covariance functions as well as variable correlations.

Multi-Rate Multivariate Time Series (MR-MTS) are the multivariate time series observations which come with various sampling rates and encode multiple temporal dependencies. State-space models such as Kalman filters and deep learning models such as deep Markov models are mainly designed for time series data with the same sampling rate and cannot capture all the dependencies present in the MR-MTS data. To address this challenge, we propose the Multi-Rate Hierarchical Deep Markov Model (MR-HDMM), a novel deep generative model which uses the latent hierarchical structure with a learnable switch mechanism to capture the temporal dependencies of MR-MTS. Experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that our MR-HDMM model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art deep learning and state-space models on forecasting and interpolation tasks. In addition, the latent hierarchies in our model provide a way to show and interpret the multiple temporal dependencies.

Fake news on social media is a major challenge and studies have shown that fake news can propagate exponentially quickly in early stages. Therefore, we focus on early detection of fake news, and consider that only news article text is available at the time of detection, since additional information such as user responses and propagation patterns can be obtained only after the news spreads. However, we find historical user responses to previous articles are available and can be treated as soft semantic labels, that enrich the binary label of an article, by providing insights into why the article must be labeled as fake. We propose a novel Two-Level Convolutional Neural Network with User Response Generator (TCNN-URG) where TCNN captures semantic information from article text by representing it at the sentence and word level, and URG learns a generative model of user response to article text from historical user responses which it can use to generate responses to new articles in order to assist fake news detection. We conduct experiments on one available dataset and a larger dataset collected by ourselves. Experimental results show that TCNN-URG outperforms the baselines based on prior approaches that detect fake news from article text alone.

One crucial task in intelligent transportation systems is estimating the duration of a potential trip given the origin location, destination location as well as the departure time. Most existing approaches for travel time estimation assume that the route of the trip is given, which does not hold in real-world applications since the route can be dynamically changed due to traffic conditions, user preferences, etc. As inferring the path from the origin and the destination can be time-consuming and nevertheless error-prone, it is desirable to perform origin-destination travel time estimation, which aims to predict the travel time without online route information. This problem is challenging mainly due to its limited amount of information available and the complicated spatiotemporal dependency. In this paper, we propose a MUlti-task Representation learning model for Arrival Time estimation (MURAT). This model produces meaningful representation that preserves various trip properties in the real-world and at the same time leverages the underlying road network and the spatiotemporal prior knowledge. Further-more, we propose a multi-task learning framework to utilize the path information of historical trips during the training phase which boosts the performance. Experimental results on two large-scale real-world datasets show that the proposed approach achieves clear improvements over state-of-the-art methods

Neural networks are known to model statistical interactions, but they entangle the interactions at intermediate hidden layers for shared representation learning. We propose a framework, Neural Interaction Transparency (NIT), that disentangles the shared learning across different interactions to obtain their intrinsic lower-order and interpretable structure. This is done through a novel regularizer that directly penalizes interaction order. We show that disentangling interactions reduces a feedforward neural network to a generalized additive model with interactions, which can lead to transparent models that perform comparably to the state-of-the-art models. NIT is also flexible and efficient; it can learn generalized additive models with maximum $K$-order interactions by training only $O(1)$ models.

We propose a half-day workshop at SIGIR 2018 for the professionals, researchers, and practitioners who are interested in mining and understanding big and heterogeneous data generated in transportation to improve the transportation system. We plan to have both paper presentations and invited talks.

Deep learning models (aka Deep Neural Networks) have revolutionized many fields including computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition, and is being increasingly used in clinical healthcare applications. However, few works exist which have benchmarked the performance of the deep learning models with respect to the state-of-the-art machine learning models and prognostic scoring systems on publicly available healthcare datasets. In this paper, we present the benchmarking results for several clinical prediction tasks such as mortality prediction, length of stay prediction, and ICD-9 code group prediction using Deep Learning models, ensemble of machine learning models (Super Learner algorithm), SAPS II and SOFA scores. We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) (v1.4) publicly available dataset, which includes all patients admitted to an ICU at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center from 2001 to 2012, for the benchmarking tasks. Our results show that deep learning models consistently outperform all the other approaches especially when the 'raw' clinical time series data is used as input features to the models.

The topic of fake news has drawn attention both from the public and the academic communities. Such misinformation has the potential of affecting public opinion, providing an opportunity for malicious parties to manipulate the outcomes of public events such as elections. Because such high stakes are at play, automatically detecting fake news is an important, yet challenging problem that is not yet well understood. Nevertheless, there are three generally agreed upon characteristics of fake news: the text of an article, the user response it receives, and the source users promoting it. Existing work has largely focused on tailoring solutions to one particular characteristic which has limited their success and generality.

The rapid growth of Electronic Health Records (EHRs), as well as the accompanied opportunities in Data-Driven Healthcare (DDH), has been attracting widespread interests and attentions. Recent progress in the design and applications of deep learning methods has shown promising results and is forcing massive changes in healthcare academia and industry, but most of these methods rely on massive labeled data. In this work, we propose a general deep learning framework which is able to boost risk prediction performance with limited EHR data. Our model takes a modified generative adversarial network namely ehrGAN, which can provide plausible labeled EHR data by mimicking real patient records, to augment the training dataset in a semi-supervised learning manner. We use this generative model together with a convolutional neural network (CNN) based prediction model to improve the onset prediction performance. Experiments on two real healthcare datasets demonstrate that our proposed framework produces realistic data samples and achieves significant improvements on classification tasks with the generated data over several stat-of-the-art baselines.

Recently, many e-commerce websites have encouraged their users to rate shopping items and write review texts. This review information has been very useful for understanding user preferences and item properties, as well as enhancing the capability to make personalized recommendations of these websites. In this paper, we propose to model user preferences and item properties using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with dual local and global attention, motivated by the superiority of CNNs to extract complex features. By using aggregated review texts from a user and aggregated review text for an item, our model can learn the unique features (embedding) of each user and each item. These features are then used to predict ratings. We train these user and item networks jointly which enable the interaction between users and items in a similar way as matrix factorization. The local attention provides us insight on a user's preferences or an item's properties. The global attention helps CNNs focus on the semantic meaning of the whole review text. Thus, the combined local and global attentions enable an interpretable and better-learned representation of users and items. We validate the proposed models by testing on popular review datasets in Yelp and Amazon and compare the results with matrix factorization (MF), the hidden factor and topical (HFT) model, and the recently proposed convolutional matrix factorization (ConvMF+). Our proposed CNNs with dual attention model outperforms HFT and ConvMF+ in terms of mean square errors (MSE). In addition, we compare the user/item embeddings learned from these models for classification and recommendation. These results also confirm the superior quality of user/item embeddings learned from our model.

Traffic forecasting is a vital part of intelligent transportation systems. It becomes particularly challenging due to short-term (e.g., accidents, constructions) and long-term (e.g., peak-hour, seasonal, weather) traffic patterns. While most of the previously proposed techniques focus on normal condition forecasting, a single framework for extreme condition traffic forecasting does not exist. To address this need, we propose to take a deep learning approach. We build a deep neural network based on long short term memory (LSTM) units. We apply Deep LSTM to forecast peak-hour traffic and manage to identify unique characteristics of the traffic data. We further improve the model for post-accident forecasting with Mixture Deep LSTM model. It jointly models the normal condition traffic and the pattern of accidents. We evaluate our model on a real-world large-scale traffic dataset in Los Angeles. When trained end-to-end with suitable regularization, our approach achieves 30%–50% improvement over baselines. We also demonstrate a novel technique to interpret the model with signal stimulation. We note interesting observations from the trained neural network.

Network Inference, i.e., discovering latent diffusion networks from observed cascades, has been studied extensively in recent years, leading to a series of excellent work. However, it has been observed that the accuracy of existing methods deteriorates significantly when the number of cascades are limited (compared with the large number of nodes), which is the norm in real world applications. Meanwhile, we are able to collect cascades on many different topics or over a long time period: the associated influence networks (either topic-specific or time-specific) are highly correlated while the number of cascade observations associated with each network is very limited. In this work, we propose a generative model, referred to as the MultiCascades model (MCM), to address the challenge of data scarcity by exploring the commonality between multiple related diffusion networks. MCM builds a hierarchical graphical model, where all the diffusion networks share the same network prior, e.g., the popular Stochastic Blockmodels or the latent space models. The parameters of the network priors can be effectively learned by gleaning evidence from a large number of inferred networks. In return, each individual network can be inferred more accurately thanks to the prior information. Furthermore, we develop efficient inference and learning algorithms so that MCM is scalable for practical applications. The results on both synthetic datasets and real-world datasets demonstrate that MCM infers both topic-specific and time-varying diffusion networks more accurately.

Anomaly detection is of critical importance to prevent malicious activities such as bullying, terrorist attack planning, and fraud information dissemination. With the recent popularity of social media, new types of anomalous behaviors arise, causing concerns from various parties. While a large body of work haven been dedicated to traditional anomaly detection problems, we observe a surge of research interests in the new realm of social media anomaly detection. In this tutorial, we survey existing work on social media anomaly detection, focusing on the new anomalous phenomena in social media and most recent techniques to detect those special types of anomalies. We aim to provide a general overview of the problem domain, common formulations, existing methodologies and future directions.

Tensor regression has shown to be advantageous in learning tasks with multi-directional relatedness. Given massive multiway data, traditional methods are often too slow to operate on or suffer from memory bottleneck. In this paper, we introduce subsampled tensor projected gradient to solve the problem. Our algorithm is impressively simple and efficient. It is built upon projected gradient method with fast tensor power iterations, leveraging randomized sketching for further acceleration. Theoretical analysis shows that our algorithm converges to the correct solution in fixed number of iterations. The memory requirement grows linearly with the size of the problem. We demonstrate superior empirical performance on both multi-linear multi-task learning and spatio-temporal applications.

Real-time traffic prediction from high-fidelity spatiotemporal traffic sensor datasets is an important problem for intelligent transportation systems and sustainability. However, it is challenging due to the complex topological dependencies and high dynamism associated with changing road conditions. In this paper, we propose a Latent Space Model for Road Networks (LSM-RN) to address these challenges holistically. In particular, given a series of road network snapshots, we learn the attributes of vertices in latent spaces which capture both topological and temporal properties. As these latent attributes are time-dependent, they can estimate how traffic patterns form and evolve. In addition, we present an incremental online algorithm which sequentially and adaptively learns the latent attributes from the temporal graph changes. Our framework enables real-time traffic prediction by 1) exploiting real-time sensor readings to adjust/update the existing latent spaces, and 2) training as data arrives and making predictions on-the-fly. By conducting extensive experiments with a large volume of real-world traffic sensor data, we demonstrate the superiority of our framework for real-time traffic prediction on large road networks over competitors as well as baseline graph-based LSM's.

Tensor CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition is a powerful but computationally challenging tool in modern data analytics. In this paper, we show ways of sampling intermediate steps of alternating minimization algorithms for computing low rank tensor CP decompositions, leading to the sparse alternating least squares (SPALS) method. Specifically, we sample the the Khatri-Rao product, which arises as an intermediate object during the iterations of alternating least squares. This product captures the interactions between different tensor modes, and form the main computational bottleneck for solving many tensor related tasks. By exploiting the spectral structures of the matrix Khatri-Rao product, we provide efficient access to its statistical leverage scores. When applied to the tensor CP decomposition, our method leads to the first algorithm that runs in sublinear time per-iteration and approximates the output of deterministic alternating least squares algorithms. Empirical evaluations of this approach show significantly speedups over existing randomized and deterministic routines for performing CP decomposition. On a tensor of the size 2.4m by 6.6m by 92k with over 2 billion nonzeros formed by Amazon product reviews, our routine converges in two minutes to the same error as deterministic ALS.

We study the problem of learning influence functions under incomplete observations of node activations. Incomplete observations are a major concern as most (online and real-world) social networks are not fully observable. We establish both proper and improper PAC learnability of influence functions under randomly missing observations. Proper PAC learnability under the Discrete-Time Linear Threshold (DLT) and Discrete-Time Independent Cascade (DIC) models is established by reducing incomplete observations to complete observations in a modified graph. Our improper PAC learnability result applies for the DLT and DIC models as well as the Continuous-Time Independent Cascade (CIC) model. It is based on a parametrization in terms of reachability features, and also gives rise to an efficient and practical heuristic. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the ability of our method to compensate even for a fairly large fraction of missing observations.

Discovering latent structures in spatial data is of critical importance to understanding the user behavior of location-based services. In this paper, we study the problem of geographic segmentation of spatial data, which involves dividing a collection of observations into distinct geo-spatial regions and uncovering abstract correlation structures in the data. We introduce a novel, Latent Poisson Factor (LPF) model to describe spatial count data. The model describes the spatial counts as a Poisson distribution with a mean that factors over a joint item-location latent space. The latent factors are constrained with weak labels to help uncover interesting spatial dependencies. We study the LPF model on a mobile app usage data set and a news article readership data set. We empirically demonstrate its effectiveness on a variety of prediction tasks on these two data sets.

In social media analysis, one critical task is detecting a burst of topics or buzz , which is reflected by extremely frequent mentions of certain keywords in a short-time interval. Detecting buzz not only provides useful insights into the information propagation mechanism, but also plays an essential role in preventing malicious rumors. However, buzz modeling is a challenging task because a buzz time-series often exhibits sudden spikes and heavy tails, wherein most existing time-series models fail. In this article, we propose novel buzz modeling approaches that capture the rise and fade temporal patterns via Product Lifecycle (PLC) model, a classical concept in economics. More specifically, we propose to model multiple peaks in buzz time-series with PLC mixture or PLC group mixture and develop a probabilistic graphical model (K-Mixture of Product Lifecycle ( K-MPLC ) to automatically discover inherent lifecycle patterns within a collection of buzzes. Furthermore, we effectively utilize the model parameters of PLC mixture or PLC group mixture for burst prediction. Our experimental results show that our proposed methods significantly outperform existing leading approaches on buzz clustering and buzz-type prediction.

The advent of geolocation technologies has generated unprecedented rich datasets of people’s location information at a very high fidelity. These location datasets can be used to study human behavior; for example, social studies have shown that people who are seen together frequently at the same place and same time are most probably socially related. In this article, we are interested in inferring these social connections by analyzing people’s location information; this is useful in a variety of application domains, from sales and marketing to intelligence analysis. In particular, we propose an entropy-based model (EBM) that not only infers social connections but also estimates the strength of social connections by analyzing people’s co-occurrences in space and time. We examine two independent methods: diversity and weighted frequency , through which co-occurrences contribute to the strength of a social connection. In addition, we take the characteristics of each location into consideration in order to compensate for cases where only limited location information is available. We also study the role of location semantics in improving our computation of social strength. We develop a parallel implementation of our algorithm using MapReduce to create a scalable and efficient solution for online applications. We conducted extensive sets of experiments with real-world datasets including both people’s location data and their social connections, where we used the latter as the ground truth to verify the results of applying our approach to the former. We show that our approach is valid across different networks and outperforms the competitors.

Topic models have achieved significant successes in analyzing large-scale text corpus. In practical applications, we are always confronted with the challenge of model selection, i.e., how to appropriately set the number of topics. Following the recent advances in topic models via tensor decomposition, we make a first attempt to provide theoretical analysis on model selection in latent Dirichlet allocation. With mild conditions, we derive the upper bound and lower bound on the number of topics given a text collection of finite size. Experimental results demonstrate that our bounds are correct and tight. Furthermore, using Gaussian mixture model as an example, we show that our methodology can be easily generalized to model selection analysis in other latent models.

Motivated by a sampling problem basic to computational statistical inference, we develop a toolset based on spectral sparsification for a family of fundamental problems involving Gaussian sampling, matrix functionals, and reversible Markov chains. Drawing on the connection between Gaussian graphical models and the recent breakthroughs in spectral graph theory, we give the first nearly linear time algorithm for the following basic matrix problem: Given an n\times n Laplacian matrix \mathbfM and a constant -1 ≤p ≤1, provide efficient access to a sparse n\times n linear operator \tilde\mathbfC such that $\mathbfM^p ≈\tilde\mathbfC \tilde\mathbfC^⊤, where ≈denotes spectral similarity. When p is set to -1, this gives the first parallel sampling algorithm that is essentially optimal both in total work and randomness for Gaussian random fields with symmetric diagonally dominant (SDD) precision matrices. It only requires \em nearly linear work and 2n \em i.i.d. random univariate Gaussian samples to generate an n-dimensional \em i.i.d. Gaussian random sample in polylogarithmic depth. The key ingredient of our approach is an integration of spectral sparsification with multilevel method: Our algorithms are based on factoring \mathbfM^p$ into a product of well-conditioned matrices, then introducing powers and replacing dense matrices with sparse approximations. We give two sparsification methods for this approach that may be of independent interest. The first invokes Maclaurin series on the factors, while the second builds on our new nearly linear time spectral sparsification algorithm for random-walk matrix polynomials. We expect these algorithmic advances will also help to strengthen the connection between machine learning and spectral graph theory, two of the most active fields in understanding large data and networks.

Functional data, where samples are random functions, are increasingly common and important in a variety of applications, such as health care and traffic analysis. They are naturally high dimensional and lie along complex manifolds. These properties warrant use of the subspace assumption, but most state-of-the-art subspace learning algorithms are limited to linear or other simple settings. To address these challenges, we propose a new framework called Functional Subspace Clustering (FSC). FSC assumes that functional samples lie in deformed linear subspaces and formulates the subspace learning problem as a sparse regression over operators. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved via greedy variable selection, given access to a fast deformation oracle. We provide theoretical guarantees for FSC and show how it can be applied to time series with warped alignments. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real clinical time series show that FSC outperforms both standard time series clustering and state-of-the-art subspace clustering.

Understanding the diffusion of information in social network and social media requires modeling the text diffusion process. In this work, we develop the HawkesTopic model (HTM) for analyzing text-based cascades, such as "retweeting a post" or "publishing a follow-up blog post". HTM combines Hawkes processes and topic modeling to simultaneously reason about the information diffusion pathways and the topics characterizing the observed textual information. We show how to jointly infer them with a mean-field variational inference algorithm and validate our approach on both synthetic and real-world data sets, including a news media dataset for modeling information diffusion, and an ArXiv publication dataset for modeling scientific influence. The results show that HTM is significantly more accurate than several baselines for both tasks.

Low-rank tensor learning has many applications in machine learning. A series of batch learning algorithms have achieved great successes. However, in many emerging applications, such as climate data analysis, we are confronted with large-scale tensor streams, which poses significant challenges to existing solution in terms of computational costs and limited response time. In this paper, we propose an online accelerated low-rank tensor learning algorithm (ALTO) to solve the problem. At each iteration, we project the current tensor to the subspace of low-rank tensors in order to perform efficient tensor decomposition, then recover the decomposition of the new tensor. By randomly glancing at additional subspaces, we successfully avoid local optima at negligible extra computational cost. We evaluate our method on two tasks in streaming multivariate spatio-temporal analysis: online forecasting and multi-model ensemble, which shows that our method achieves comparable predictive accuracy with significant boost in run time.

We apply deep learning to the problem of discovery and detection of characteristic patterns of physiology in clinical time series data. We propose two novel modifications to standard neural net training that address challenges and exploit properties that are peculiar, if not exclusive, to medical data. First, we examine a general framework for using prior knowledge to regularize parameters in the topmost layers. This framework can leverage priors of any form, ranging from formal ontologies (e.g., ICD9 codes) to data-derived similarity. Second, we describe a scalable procedure for training a collection of neural networks of different sizes but with partially shared architectures. Both of these innovations are well-suited to medical applications, where available data are not yet Internet scale and have many sparse outputs (e.g., rare diagnoses) but which have exploitable structure (e.g., temporal order and relationships between labels). However, both techniques are sufficiently general to be applied to other problems and domains. We demonstrate the empirical efficacy of both techniques on two real-world hospital data sets and show that the resulting neural nets learn interpretable and clinically relevant features.

Anomaly detection is of critical importance to prevent malicious activities such as bullying, terrorist attack planning, and fraud information dissemination. With the recent popularity of social media, new types of anomalous behaviors arise, causing concerns from various parties. While a large body of work haven been dedicated to traditional anomaly detection problems, we observe a surge of research interests in the new realm of social media anomaly detection. In this tutorial, we survey existing work on social media anomaly detection, focusing on the new anomalous phenomena in social media and most recent techniques to detect those special types of anomalies. We aim to provide a general overview of the problem domain, common formulations, existing methodologies and future directions.

We describe a unified active transfer learning framework called Hierarchical Active Transfer Learning (HATL). HATL exploits cluster structure shared between different data domains to perform transfer learning by imputing labels for unlabeled target data and to generate effective label queries during active learning. The resulting framework is flexible enough to perform not only adaptive transfer learning and accelerated active learning but also unsupervised and semi-supervised transfer learning. We derive an intuitive and useful upper bound on HATL's error when used to infer labels for unlabeled target points. We also present results on synthetic data that confirm both intuition and our analysis. Finally, we demonstrate HATL's empirical effectiveness on a benchmark data set for sentiment classification.

Traditional anomaly detection on social media mostly focuses on individual point anomalies while anomalous phenomena usually occur in groups. Therefore, it is valuable to study the collective behavior of individuals and detect group anomalies. Existing group anomaly detection approaches rely on the assumption that the groups are known, which can hardly be true in real world social media applications. In this article, we take a generative approach by proposing a hierarchical Bayes model: Group Latent Anomaly Detection (GLAD) model. GLAD takes both pairwise and point-wise data as input, automatically infers the groups and detects group anomalies simultaneously. To account for the dynamic properties of the social media data, we further generalize GLAD to its dynamic extension d-GLAD. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate our models on both synthetic and real world datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that our approach is effective and robust in discovering latent groups and detecting group anomalies.

In social media analysis, one critical task is detecting burst of topics or buzz, which is reflected by extremely frequent mentions of certain key words in a short time interval. Detecting buzz not only provides useful insights into the information propagation mechanism, but also plays an essential role in preventing malicious rumors. However, buzz modeling is a challenging task because a buzz time-series usually exhibits sudden spikes and heavy tails, which fails most existing time-series models. To deal with buzz time-series sequences, we propose a novel time-series modeling approach which captures the rise and fade temporal patterns via Product Life Cycle (PLC) models, a classical concept in economics. More specifically, we propose a mixture of PLC models to capture the multiple peaks in buzz time-series and furthermore develop a probabilistic graphical model (K-MPLC) to automatically discover inherent life cycle patterns within a collection of buzzes. Our experiment results show that our proposed method significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches on buzzes clustering.

As large-scale multivariate time series data become increasingly common in application domains, such as health care and traffic analysis, researchers are challenged to build efficient tools to analyze it and provide useful insights. Similarity search, as a basic operator for many machine learning and data mining algorithms, has been extensively studied before, leading to several efficient solutions. However, similarity search for multivariate time series data is intrinsically challenging because (1) there is no conclusive agreement on what is a good similarity metric for multivariate time series data and (2) calculating similarity scores between two time series is often computationally expensive. In this paper, we address this problem by applying a generalized hashing framework, namely kernelized locality sensitive hashing, to accelerate time series similarity search with a series of representative similarity metrics. Experiment results on three large-scale clinical data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Discovering temporal dependence structure from multivariate time series has established its importance in many applications. We observe that when we look in reversed order of time, the temporal dependence structure of the time series is usually preserved after switching the roles of cause and effect. Inspired by this observation, we create a new time series by reversing the time stamps of original time series and combine both time series to improve the performance of temporal dependence recovery. We also provide theoretical justification for the proposed algorithm for several existing time series models. We test our approach on both synthetic and real world datasets. The experimental results confirm that this surprisingly simple approach is indeed effective under various circumstances.

The hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) is an intuitive and elegant technique to model data with latent groups. However, it has not been widely used for practical applications due to the high computational costs associated with inference. In this paper, we propose an effective parallel Gibbs sampling algorithm for HDP by exploring its connections with the gamma-gamma-Poisson process. Specifically, we develop a novel framework that combines bootstrap and Reversible Jump MCMC algorithm to enable parallel variable updates. We also provide theoretical convergence analysis based on Gibbs sampling with asynchronous variable updates. Experiment results on both synthetic datasets and two large-scale text collections show that our algorithm can achieve considerable speedup as well as better inference accuracy for HDP compared with existing parallel sampling algorithms.

Traditional anomaly detection on social media mostly focuses on individual point anomalies while anomalous phenomena usually occur in groups. Therefore it is valuable to study the collective behavior of individuals and detect group anomalies. Existing group anomaly detection approaches rely on the assumption that the groups are known, which can hardly be true in real world social media applications. In this paper, we take a generative approach by proposing a hierarchical Bayes model: Group Latent Anomaly Detection (GLAD) model. GLAD takes both pair-wise and point-wise data as input, automatically infers the groups and detects group anomalies simultaneously. To account for the dynamic properties of the social media data, we further generalize GLAD to its dynamic extension d-GLAD. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate our models on both synthetic and real world datasets. The empirical results demonstrate that our approach is effective and robust in discovering latent groups and detecting group anomalies.

Most existing works on multi-task learning (MTL) assume the same input space for different tasks. In this paper, we address a general setting where different tasks have heterogeneous input spaces. This setting has a lot of potential applications, yet it poses new algorithmic challenges - how can we link seemingly uncorrelated tasks to mutually boost their learning performance? Our key observation is that in many real applications, there might exist some correspondence among the inputs of different tasks, which is referred to as pivots. For such applications, we first propose a learning scheme for multiple tasks and analyze its generalization performance. Then we focus on the problems where only a limited number of the pivots are available, and propose a general framework to leverage the pivot information. The idea is to map the heterogeneous input spaces to a common space, and construct a single prediction model in this space for all the tasks. We further propose an effective optimization algorithm to find both the mappings and the prediction model. Experimental results demonstrate its effectiveness, especially with very limited number of pivots.

Understanding and quantifying the impact of unobserved processes is one of the major challenges of analyzing multivariate time series data. In this paper, we analyze a flexible stochastic process model, the generalized linear auto-regressive process (GLARP) and identify the conditions under which the impact of hidden variables appears as an additive term to the evolution matrix estimated with the maximum likelihood. In particular, we examine three examples, including two popular models for count data, i.e, Poisson and Conwey-Maxwell Poisson vector auto-regressive processes, and one powerful model for extreme value data, i.e., Gumbel vector auto-regressive processes. We demonstrate that the impact of hidden factors can be separated out via convex optimization in these three models. We also propose a fast greedy algorithm based on the selection of composite atoms in each iteration and provide a performance guarantee for it. Experiments on two synthetic datasets, one social network dataset and one climatology dataset demonstrate the the superior performance of our proposed models.

Learning temporal causal structures among multiple time series is one of the major tasks in mining time series data. Granger causality is one of the most popular techniques in uncovering the temporal dependencies among time series; however it faces two main challenges: (i) the spurious effect of unobserved time series and (ii) the computational challenges in high dimensional settings. In this paper, we utilize the confounder path delays to find a subset of time series that via conditioning on them we are able to cancel out the spurious confounder effects. After study of consistency of different Granger causality techniques, we propose Copula-Granger and show that while it is consistent in high dimensions, it can efficiently capture non-linearity in the data. Extensive experiments on a synthetic and a social networking dataset confirm our theoretical results.

The ubiquity of mobile devices and the popularity of location-based-services have generated, for the first time, rich datasets of people's location information at a very high fidelity. These location datasets can be used to study people's behavior - for example, social studies have shown that people, who are seen together frequently at the same place and at the same time, are most probably socially related. In this paper, we are interested in inferring these social connections by analyzing people's location information, which is useful in a variety of application domains from sales and marketing to intelligence analysis. In particular, we propose an entropy-based model (EBM) that not only infers social connections but also estimates the strength of social connections by analyzing people's co-occurrences in space and time. We examine two independent ways: diversity and weighted frequency, through which co-occurrences contribute to social strength. In addition, we take the characteristics of each location into consideration in order to compensate for cases where only limited location information is available. We conducted extensive sets of experiments with real-world datasets including both people's location data and their social connections, where we used the latter as the ground-truth to verify the results of applying our approach to the former. We show that our approach outperforms the competitors.

Twitter has become one of the most popular platforms for users to share information in real time. However, as an individual tweet is short and lacks sufficient contextual information, users cannot effectively understand or consume information on Twitter, which can either make users less engaged or even detached from using Twitter. In order to provide informative context to a Twitter user, we propose the task of Twitter context summarization, which generates a succinct summary from a large but noisy Twitter context tree. Traditional summarization techniques only consider text information, which is insufficient for Twitter context summarization task, since text information on Twitter is very sparse. Given that there are rich user interactions in Twitter, we thus study how to improve summarization methods by leveraging such signals. In particular, we study how user influence models, which project user interaction information onto a Twitter context tree, can help Twitter context summarization within a supervised learning framework. To evaluate our methods, we construct a data set by asking human editors to manually select the most informative tweets as a summary. Our experimental results based on this editorial data set show that Twitter context summarization is a promising research topic and pairwise user influence signals can significantly improve the task performance.

In Web search and vertical search, recency ranking refers to retrieving and ranking documents by both relevance and freshness. As impoverished in-links and click information is the the biggest challenge for recency ranking, we advocate the use of Twitter data to address the challenge in this article. We propose a method to utilize Twitter TinyURL to detect fresh and high-quality documents, and leverage Twitter data to generate novel and effective features for ranking. The empirical experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively improves a commercial search engine for both Web search ranking and tweet vertical ranking.

Recent developments in industrial systems provide us with a large amount of time series data from sensors, logs, system settings and physical measurements, etc. These data are extremely valuable for providing insights about the complex systems and could be used to detect anomalies at early stages. However, the special characteristics of these time series data, such as high dimensions and complex dependencies between variables, as well as its massive volume, pose great challenges to existing anomaly detection algorithms. In this paper, we propose Granger graphical models as an effective and scalable approach for anomaly detection whose results can be readily interpreted. Specifically, Granger graphical models are a family of graphical models that exploit the temporal dependencies between variables by applying L1-regularized learning to Granger causality. Our goal is to efficiently compute a robust "correlation anomaly" score for each variable via Granger graphical models that can provide insights on the possible reasons of anomalies. We evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms on both synthetic and application datasets. The results show the proposed algorithm achieves significantly better performance than other baseline algorithms and is scalable for large-scale applications.

Discovering communities from social media and collaboration systems has been of great interest in recent years. Existing work show prospects of modeling contents and social links, aiming at discovering social communities, whose definition varies by application. We believe that a community depends not only on the group of people who actively participate, but also the topics they communicate about or collaborate on. This is especially true for workplace email communications. Within an organization, it is not uncommon that employees multifunction, and groups of employees collaborate on multiple projects at the same time. In this paper, we aim to automatically discovering and profiling users' communities by taking into account both the contacts and the topics. More specifically, we propose a community profiling model called COCOMP, where the communities labels are latent, and each social document corresponds to an information sharing activity among the most probable community members regarding the most relevant community issues. Experiment results on several social communication datasets, including emails and Twitter messages, demonstrate that the model can discover users' communities effectively, and provide concrete semantics.

Learning temporal causal structures between time series is one of the key tools for analyzing time series data. In many real-world applications, we are confronted with Irregular Time Series, whose observations are not sampled at equally-spaced time stamps. The irregularity in sampling intervals violates the basic assumptions behind many models for structure learning. In this paper, we propose a nonparametric generalization of the Granger graphical models called Generalized Lasso Granger (GLG) to uncover the temporal dependencies from irregular time series. Via theoretical analysis and extensive experiments, we verify the effectiveness of our model. Furthermore, we apply GLG to the application dataset of δ18O isotope of Oxygen records in Asia and achieve promising results to discover the moisture transportation patterns in a 800-year period.

The increasing volume of short texts generated on social media sites, such as Twitter or Facebook, creates a great demand for effective and efficient topic modeling approaches. While latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) can be applied, it is not optimal due to its weakness in handling short texts with fast-changing topics and scalability concerns. In this paper, we propose a transfer learning approach that utilizes abundant labeled documents from other domains (such as Yahoo! News or Wikipedia) to improve topic modeling, with better model fitting and result interpretation. Specifically, we develop Transfer Hierarchical LDA (thLDA) model, which incorporates the label information from other domains via informative priors. In addition, we develop a parallel implementation of our model for large-scale applications. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our thLDA model on both a microblogging dataset and standard text collections including AP and RCV1 datasets.

With rapid growth of commercial search engines, detecting multilingual and multi-regional intent underlying search queries becomes a critical challenge to serve international users with diverse language and region requirements. We introduce a query intent probabilistic model, whose input is the number of clicks on documents from different regions and in different language, while the output of this model is a smoothed probabilistic distribution of multilingual and multi-regional query intent. Based on an editorial test to evaluate the accuracy of the intent classifier, our probabilistic model could improve the accuracy of multilingual intent detection for 15%, and improve multi-regional intent detection for 18%. To improve web search quality, we propose a set of new ranking features to combine multilingual and multi-regional query intent with document language/region attributes, and apply different approaches in integrating intent information to directly affect ranking. The experiments show that the novel features could provide 2.31% NDCG@1 improvement and 1.81% NDCG@5 improvement.

The increasing volume of information generated on micro-blogging sites such as Twitter raises several challenges to traditional text mining techniques. First, most texts from those sites are abbreviated due to the constraints of limited characters in one post; second, the input usually comes in streams of large-volumes. Therefore, it is of significant importance to develop effective and efficient representations of abbreviated texts for better filtering and mining. In this paper, we introduce a novel transfer learning approach, namely transfer latent semantic learning, that utilizes a large number of related tagged documents with rich information from other sources (source domain) to help build a robust latent semantic space for the abbreviated texts (target domain). This is achieved by simultaneously minimizing the document reconstruction error and the classification error of the labeled examples from the source domain by building a classifier with hinge loss in the latent semantic space. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by applying them to the task of classifying and tagging abbreviated texts. Experimental results on both synthetic datasets and real application datasets, including Reuters-21578 and Twitter data, suggest substantial improvements using our approach over existing ones.

Data analytics involves choosing between many different algorithms and experimenting with possible combinations of those algorithms. Existing approaches however do not support scientists with the laborious tasks of exploring the design space of computational experiments. We have developed a framework to assist scientists with data analysis tasks in particular machine learning and data mining. It takes advantage of the unique capabilities of the Wings workflow system to reason about semantic constraints. We show how the framework can rule out invalid workflows and help scientists to explore the design space. We demonstrate our system in the domain of text analytics, and outline the benefits of our approach.

Transductive transfer learning is one special type of transfer learning problem, in which abundant labeled examples are available in the source domain and only unlabeled examples are available in the target domain. It easily finds applications in spam filtering, microblogging mining and so on. In this paper, we propose a general framework to solve the problem by mapping the input features in both the source domain and target domain into a shared latent space and simultaneously minimizing the feature reconstruction loss and prediction loss. We develop one specific example of the framework, namely latent large-margin transductive transfer learning (LATTL) algorithm, and analyze its theoretic bound of classification loss via Rademacher complexity. We also provide a unified view of several popular transfer learning algorithms under our framework. Experiment results on one synthetic dataset and three application datasets demonstrate the advantages of the proposed algorithm over the other state-of-the-art ones.

The number of patents filed each year has increased dramatically in recent years, raising concerns that patents of questionable validity are restricting the issuance of truly innovative patents. For this reason, there is a strong demand to develop an objective model to quantify patent quality and characterize the attributes that lead to higher-quality patents. In this paper, we develop a latent graphical model to infer patent quality from related measurements. In addition, we extract advanced lexical features via natural language processing techniques to capture the quality measures such as clarity of claims, originality, and importance of cited prior art. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by validating its predictions with previous court decisions of litigated patents.

Transfer learning has been proposed to address the problem of scarcity of labeled data in the target domain by leveraging the data from the source domain. In many real world applications, data is often represented from different perspectives, which correspond to multiple views. For example, a web page can be described by its contents and its associated links. However, most existing transfer learning methods fail to capture the multi-view {nature}, and might not be best suited for such applications.

Most traditional supervised learning methods are developed to learn a model from labeled examples and use this model to classify the unlabeled ones into the same label space predefined by the models. However, in many real world applications, the label spaces for both the labeled/training and unlabeled/testing examples can be different. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a novel notion of Serendipitous Learning (SL), which is defined to address the learning scenarios in which the label space can be enlarged during the testing phase. In particular, a large margin approach is proposed to solve SL. The basic idea is to leverage the knowledge in the labeled examples to help identify novel/unknown classes, and the large margin formulation is proposed to incorporate both the classification loss on the examples within the known categories, as well as the clustering loss on the examples in unknown categories. An efficient optimization algorithm based on CCCP and the bundle method is proposed to solve the optimization problem of the large margin formulation of SL. Moreover, an efficient online learning method is proposed to address the issue of large scale data in online learning scenario, which has been shown to have a guaranteed learning regret. An extensive set of experimental results on two synthetic datasets and two datasets from real world applications demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over several other baseline algorithms. One limitation of the proposed method is that the number of unknown classes is given in advance. It may be possible to remove this constraint if we model it by using a non-parametric way. We also plan to do experiments on more real world applications in the future.

Most existing Multiple-Instance Learning (MIL) algorithms assume data instances and/or data bags are independently and identically distributed. But there often exists rich additional dependency/structure information between instances/bags within many applications of MIL. Ignoring this structure information limits the performance of existing MIL algorithms. This paper explores the research problem as multiple instance learning on structured data (MILSD) and formulates a novel framework that considers additional structure information. In particular, an effective and efficient optimization algorithm has been proposed to solve the original non-convex optimization problem by using a combination of Concave-Convex Constraint Programming (CCCP) method and an adapted Cutting Plane method, which deals with two sets of constraints caused by learning on instances within individual bags and learning on structured data. Our method has the nice convergence property, with specified precision on each set of constraints. Experimental results on three different applications, i.e., webpage classification, market targeting, and protein fold identification, clearly demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over state-of-the-art methods.

No abstract available.

An important challenge in understanding climate change is to uncover the dependency relationships between various climate observations and forcing factors. Graphical lasso, a recently proposed L1 penalty based structure learning algorithm, has been proven successful for learning underlying dependency structures for the data drawn from a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, climatological data often turn out to be non-Gaussian, e.g. cloud cover, precipitation, etc. In this paper, we examine nonparametric learning methods to address this challenge. In particular, we develop a methodology to learn dynamic graph structures from spatial-temporal data so that the graph structures at adjacent time or locations are similar. Experimental results demonstrate that our method not only recovers the underlying graph well but also captures the smooth variation properties on both synthetic data and climate data. An important challenge in understanding climate change is to uncover the dependency relationships between various climate observations and forcing factors. Graphical lasso, a recently proposed An important challenge in understanding climate change is to uncover the dependency relationships between various climate observations and forcing factors. Graphical lasso, a recently proposed L1 penalty based structure learning algorithm, has been proven successful for learning underlying dependency structures for the data drawn from a multivariate Gaussian distribution. However, climatological data often turn out to be non-Gaussian, e.g. cloud cover, precipitation, etc. In this paper, we examine nonparametric learning methods to address this challenge. In particular, we develop a methodology to learn dynamic graph structures from spatial-temporal data so that the graph structures at adjacent time or locations are similar. Experimental results demonstrate that our method not only recovers the underlying graph well but also captures the smooth variation properties on both synthetic data and climate data.

People are increasingly using more and more social softwares, generating flooding communications. User analytics may be performed to mine a person's activities on different social systems and extract patterns, be it interest patterns, social patterns, or work patterns. Such patterns may benefit both the individuals and the organizations the users associated with, as the information is valuable in numerous tasks, including recommendation, evaluation, management, and so on. In this article, we present an actionable solution of user analytics, namely collaboration analytics, by focusing on mining a person's work patterns from her collaboration activities. Our solution effectively makes use of a user's heterogeneous data collected from various collaboration tools to derive an integrated description of the user's collaborative work. A number of ``work areas'', each of which contains its work topics and people involved, are generated for every user. The challenges we face include the clustering of items with short texts and prioritizing/weighting data items based on importance/relevance. Our solutions to those issues will be described in this article. In particular, we mine users' background information from various types of data and use such information to enrich the semantics of the short texts contained in the activity instances on collaboration tools before clustering those instances into work areas. Finally, we have developed a prototype of our collaboration analytics solution and evaluated it with real-world data and people.

Transfer learning is the task of leveraging the information from labeled examples in some domains to predict the labels for examples in another domain. It finds abundant practical applications, such as sentiment prediction, image classification and network intrusion detection. In this paper, we propose a graph-based transfer learning framework. It propagates the label information from the source domain to the target domain via the example-feature-example tripartite graph, and puts more emphasis on the labeled examples from the target domain via the example-example bi-partite graph. Our framework is semi-supervised and non-parametric in nature and thus more flexible. We also develop an iterative algorithm so that our framework is scalable to large-scale applications. It enjoys the theoretical property of convergence. Compared with existing transfer learning methods, the proposed framework propagates the label information to both the features irrelevant to the source domain and the unlabeled examples in the target omain via the common features in a principled way. Experimental results on 3 real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm.

In this paper, we analyze complex gaze tracking data in a collaborative task and apply machine learning models to automatically predict skill-level differences between participants. Specifically, we present findings that address the two primary challenges for this prediction task: (1) extracting meaningful features from the gaze information, and (2) casting the prediction task as a machine learning (ML) problem. The results show that our approach based on profile hidden Markov models are up to 96% accurate and can make the determination as fast as one minute into the collaboration, with only 5% of gaze observations registered. We also provide a qualitative analysis of gaze patterns that reveal the relative expertise level of the paired users in a collaborative learning user study.

Given a large-scale linked document collection, such as a collection of blog posts or a research literature archive, there are two fundamental problems that have generated a lot of interest in the research community. One is to identify a set of high-level topics covered by the documents in the collection; the other is to uncover and analyze the social network of the authors of the documents. So far these problems have been viewed as separate problems and considered independently from each other. In this paper we argue that these two problems are in fact inter-dependent and should be addressed together. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical approach that performs topic modeling and author community discovery in one unified framework. The effectiveness of our model is demonstrated on two blog data sets in different domains and one research paper citation data from CiteSeer.

Learning temporal graph structures from time series data reveals important dependency relationships between current observations and histories. Most previous work focuses on learning and predicting with static temporal graphs only. However, in many applications such as mechanical systems and biology systems, the temporal dependencies might change over time. In this paper, we develop a dynamic temporal graphical models based on hidden Markov model regression and lasso-type algorithms. Our method is able to integrate two usually separate tasks, i.e. inferring underlying states and learning temporal graphs, in one unified model. The output temporal graphs provide better understanding about complex systems, i.e. how their dependency graphs evolve over time, and achieve more accurate predictions. We examine our model on two synthetic datasets as well as a real application dataset for monitoring oil-production equipment to capture different stages of the system, and achieve promising results.

We develop and evaluate an approach to causal modeling based on time series data, collectively referred to as "grouped graphical Granger modeling methods." Graphical Granger modeling uses graphical modeling techniques on time series data and invokes the notion of "Granger causality" to make assertions on causality among a potentially large number of time series variables through inference on time-lagged effects. The present paper proposes a novel enhancement to the graphical Granger methodology by developing and applying families of regression methods that are sensitive to group information among variables, to leverage the group structure present in the lagged temporal variables according to the time series they belong to. Additionally, we propose a new family of algorithms we call group boosting, as an improved component of grouped graphical Granger modeling over the existing regression methods with grouped variable selection in the literature (e.g group Lasso). The introduction of group boosting methods is primarily motivated by the need to deal with non-linearity in the data. We perform empirical evaluation to confirm the advantage of the grouped graphical Granger methods over the standard (non-grouped) methods, as well as that specific to the methods based on group boosting. This advantage is also demonstrated for the real world application of gene regulatory network discovery from time-course microarray data.

Attribution of climate change to causal factors has been based predominantly on simulations using physical climate models, which have inherent limitations in describing such a complex and chaotic system. We propose an alternative, data centric, approach that relies on actual measurements of climate observations and human and natural forcing factors. Specifically, we develop a novel method to infer causality from spatial-temporal data, as well as a procedure to incorporate extreme value modeling into our method in order to address the attribution of extreme climate events, such as heatwaves. Our experimental results on a real world dataset indicate that changes in temperature are not solely accounted for by solar radiance, but attributed more significantly to CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Combined with extreme value modeling, we also show that there has been a significant increase in the intensity of extreme temperatures, and that such changes in extreme temperature are also attributable to greenhouse gases. These preliminary results suggest that our approach can offer a useful alternative to the simulation-based approach to climate modeling and attribution, and provide valuable insights from a fresh perspective.

We consider the task of performing anomaly detection in highly noisy multivariate data. In many applications involving real-valued time-series data, such as physical sensor data and economic metrics, discovering changes and anomalies in the way variables depend on one another is of particular importance. Our goal is to robustly compute the “correlation anomaly” score of each variable by comparing the test data with reference data, even when some of the variables are highly correlated (and thus collinearity exists). To remove seeming dependencies introduced by noise, we focus on the most significant dependencies for each variable. We perform this “neighborhood selection” in an adaptive manner by fitting a sparse graphical Gaussian model. Instead of traditional covariance selection procedures, we solve this problem as maximum likelihood estimation of the precision matrix (inverse covariance matrix) under the L1 penalty. Then the anomaly score for each variable is computed by evaluating the distances between the fitted conditional distributions within the Markov blanket for that variable, for the (two) data sets to be compared. Using real-world data, we demonstrate that our matrix-based sparse structure learning approach successfully detects correlation anomalies under collinearities and heavy noise.

We consider the problem of discovering gene regulatory networks from time-series microarray data. Recently, graphical Granger modeling has gained considerable attention as a promising direction for addressing this problem. These methods apply graphical modeling methods on time-series data and invoke the notion of 'Granger causality' to make assertions on causality through inference on time-lagged effects. Existing algorithms, however, have neglected an important aspect of the problem--the group structure among the lagged temporal variables naturally imposed by the time series they belong to. Specifically, existing methods in computational biology share this shortcoming, as well as additional computational limitations, prohibiting their effective applications to the large datasets including a large number of genes and many data points. In the present article, we propose a novel methodology which we term 'grouped graphical Granger modeling method', which overcomes the limitations mentioned above by applying a regression method suited for high-dimensional and large data, and by leveraging the group structure among the lagged temporal variables according to the time series they belong to. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology on both simulated and actual gene expression data, specifically the human cancer cell (HeLa S3) cycle data. The simulation results show that the proposed methodology generally exhibits higher accuracy in recovering the underlying causal structure. Those on the gene expression data demonstrate that it leads to improved accuracy with respect to prediction of known links, and also uncovers additional causal relationships uncaptured by earlier works.

Rare category detection is the task of identifying examples from rare classes in an unlabeled data set. It is an open challenge in machine learning and plays key roles in real applications such as financial fraud detection, network intrusion detection, astronomy, spam image detection, etc. In this paper, we develop a new graph-based method for rare category detection named GRADE. It makes use of the global similarity matrix motivated by the manifold ranking algorithm, which results in more compact clusters for the minority classes; by selecting examples from the regions where probability density changes the most, it relaxes the assumption that the majority classes and the minority classes are separable. Furthermore, when detailed information about the data set is not available, we develop a modified version of GRADE named GRADE-LI, which only needs an upper bound on the proportion of each minority class as input. Besides working with data with structured features, both GRADE and GRADE-LI can also work with graph data, which can not be handled by existing rare category detection methods. Experimental results on both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the GRADE and GRADE-LI algorithms.

Accurate and efficient video classification and retrieval demands the fusion of multimodal information and the use of intermediate representations. This paper describes an undirected graphical model based on exponential-family harmonium, which derives intermediate semantic representations of video data by jointly modeling the textual and image information in the video. We propose an extension of the model to derive category-specific video representation and integrate video classification as a part of the modeling process. We report satisfactory classification performance on a set of 15 video categories from TRECVID collection as well as comparison on the effectiveness of different inference algorithms.

The need for mining causality, beyond mere statistical correlations, for real world problems has been recognized widely. Many of these applications naturally involve temporal data, which raises the challenge of how best to leverage the temporal information for causal modeling. Recently graphical modeling with the concept of “Granger causality”, based on the intuition that a cause helps predict its effects in the future, has gained attention in many domains involving time series data analysis. With the surge of interest in model selection methodologies for regression, such as the Lasso, as practical alternatives to solving structural learning of graphical models, the question arises whether and how to combine these two notions into a practically viable approach for temporal causal modeling. In this paper, we examine a host of related

Accurate and efficient video classification demands the fusion of multimodal information and the use of intermediate representations. Combining the two ideas into the one framework, we propose a probabilistic approach for video classification using intermediate semantic representations derived from multi-modal features. Based on a class of bipartite undirected graphical models named harmonium, our approach represents the video data as latent semantic topics derived by jointly modeling the transcript keywords and color-histogram features, and performs classification using these latent topics under a unified framework. We show satisfactory classification performance of our approach on a benchmark dataset as well as interesting insights into the data.

Protein fold recognition is a key step towards inferring the tertiary structures from amino-acid sequences. Complex folds such as those consisting of interacting structural repeats are prevalent in proteins involved in a wide spectrum of biological functions. However, extant approaches often perform inadequately due to their inability to capture long-range interactions between structural units and to handle low sequence similarities across proteins (under 25% identity). In this paper, we propose a chain graph model built on a causally connected series of segmentation conditional random fields (SCRFs) to address these issues. Specifically, the SCRF model captures long-range interactions within recurring structural units and the Bayesian network backbone decomposes cross-repeat interactions into locally computable modules consisting of repeat-specific SCRFs and a model for sequence motifs. We applied this model to predict β -helices and leucine-rich repeats, and found it significantly outperforms extant methods in predictive accuracy and/or computational efficiency.

Kernel conditional random fields (KCRFs) are introduced as a framework for discriminative modeling of graph-structured data. A representer theorem for conditional graphical models is given which shows how kernel conditional random fields arise from risk minimization procedures defined using Mercer kernels on labeled graphs. A procedure for greedily selecting cliques in the dual representation is then proposed, which allows sparse representations. By incorporating kernels and implicit feature spaces into conditional graphical models, the framework enables semi-supervised learning algorithms for structured data through the use of graph kernels. The framework and clique selection methods are demonstrated in synthetic data experiments, and are also applied to the problem of protein secondary structure prediction.

Protein secondary structure prediction is an important step towards understanding the relation between protein sequence and structure. However, most current prediction methods use features difficult for biologists to interpret. In this paper, we present a new method that applies information retrieval techniques to solve the problem:we extract a context sensitive biological vocabulary for protein sequences and apply text classification methods to predict protein secondary structure. Experimental results show that our method performs comparably to the state-of-art methods. Furthermore, the context sensitive vocabularies can serve as a useful tool to discover meaningful regular expression patterns for protein structures.

MOTIVATION: Protein secondary structure prediction is an important step towards understanding how proteins fold in three dimensions. Recent analysis by information theory indicates that the correlation between neighboring secondary structures are much stronger than that of neighboring amino acids. In this article, we focus on the combination problem for sequences, i.e. combining the scores or assignments from single or multiple prediction systems under the constraint of a whole sequence, as a target for improvement in protein secondary structure prediction. RESULTS: We apply several graphical chain models to solve the combination problem and show that they are consistently more effective than the traditional window-based methods. In particular, conditional random fields (CRFs) moderately improve the predictions for helices and, more importantly, for beta sheets, which are the major bottleneck for protein secondary structure prediction.

Scene classification is an important technique to infer high-level semantic scene categories from low-level visual features. However, in the real world the positive data for many scenes may be rare, which degrades the performance of many classifiers. In this paper, we propose SVM ensembles to address the rare class problem. Various classifier combination strategies are investigated, including majority voting, sum rule, neural network gater and hierarchical SVMs. We also compare our method with two other common approaches for dealing with the rare class problem. Our experimental results show that hierarchical SVMs can achieve significantly better and more stable performance than other strategies, as well as high computational efficiency.

This paper studies the effects of boosting in the context of different classification methods for text categorization, including Decision Trees, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and a Rocchio-style classifier. We identify the inductive biases of each classifier and explore how boosting, as an error-driven resampling mechanism, reacts to those biases. Our experiments on the Reuters-21578 benchmark show that boosting is not effective in improving the performance of the base classifiers on common categories. However, the effect of boosting for rare categories varies across classifiers: for SVMs and Decision Trees, we achieved a 13-17% performance improvement in macro-averaged F1 measure, but did not obtain substantial improvement for the other two classifiers. This interesting finding of boosting on rare categories has not been reported before.