Instruction-following is crucial for building AI agents with large language models (LLMs), as these models must adhere strictly to user-provided constraints and guidelines. However, LLMs often fail to follow even simple and clear instructions. To improve instruction-following behavior and prevent undesirable outputs, a deeper understanding of how LLMs' internal states relate to these outcomes is required. In this work, we investigate whether LLMs encode information in their representations that correlates with instruction-following success—a property we term ``knowing internally''. Our analysis identifies a direction in the input embedding space, termed the instruction-following dimension, that predicts whether a response will comply with a given instruction. We find that this dimension generalizes well across unseen tasks but not across unseen instruction types. We demonstrate that modifying representations along this dimension improves instruction-following success rates compared to random changes, without compromising response quality. Further investigation reveals that this dimension is more closely related to the phrasing of prompts rather than the inherent difficulty of the task or instructions. This discovery also suggests explanations for why LLMs sometimes fail to follow clear instructions and why prompt engineering is often effective, even when the content remains largely unchanged. This work provides insight into the internal workings of LLMs' instruction-following, paving the way for reliable LLM agents.

Tracking biosignals is crucial for monitoring wellness and preempting the development of severe medical conditions. Today, wearable devices can conveniently record various biosignals, creating the opportunity to monitor health status without disruption to one's daily routine. Despite widespread use of wearable devices and existing digital biomarkers, the absence of curated data with annotated medical labels hinders the development of new biomarkers to measure common health conditions. In fact, medical datasets are usually small in comparison to other domains, which is an obstacle for developing neural network models for biosignals. To address this challenge, we have employed self-supervised learning using the unlabeled sensor data collected under informed consent from the large longitudinal Apple Heart and Movement Study (AHMS) to train foundation models for two common biosignals: photoplethysmography (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) recorded on Apple Watch. We curated PPG and ECG datasets from AHMS that include data from ${\sim} 141$K participants spanning ${\sim} 3$ years. Our self-supervised learning framework includes participant level positive pair selection, stochastic augmentation module and a regularized contrastive loss optimized with momentum training, and generalizes well to both PPG and ECG modalities. We show that the pre-trained foundation models readily encode information regarding participants' demographics and health conditions. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that builds foundation models using large-scale PPG and ECG data collected via wearable consumer devices $\textendash$ prior works have commonly used smaller-size datasets collected in clinical and experimental settings. We believe PPG and ECG foundation models can enhance future wearable devices by reducing the reliance on labeled data and hold the potential to help the users improve their health.

Generative models often use latent variables to represent structured variation in high-dimensional data, such as images and medical waveforms. However, these latent variables may ignore subtle, yet meaningful features in the data. Some features may predict an outcome of interest (e.g. heart attack) but account for only a small fraction of variation in the data. We propose a generative model training objective that uses a black-box discriminative model as a regularizer to learn representations that preserve this predictive variation. With these discriminatively regularized latent variable models, we visualize and measure variation in the data that influence a black-box predictive model, enabling an expert to better understand each prediction. With this technique, we study models that use electrocardiograms to predict outcomes of clinical interest. We measure our approach on synthetic and real data with statistical summaries and an experiment carried out by a physician.

Amortized variational inference (AVI) replaces instance-specific local inference with a global inference network. While AVI has enabled efficient training of deep generative models such as variational autoencoders (VAE), recent empirical work suggests that inference networks can produce suboptimal variational parameters. We propose a hybrid approach, to use AVI to initialize the variational parameters and run stochastic variational inference (SVI) to refine them. Crucially, the local SVI procedure is itself differentiable, so the inference network and generative model can be trained end-to-end with gradient-based optimization. This semi-amortized approach enables the use of rich generative models without experiencing the posterior-collapse phenomenon common in training VAEs for problems like text generation. Experiments show this approach outperforms strong autoregressive and variational baselines on standard text and image datasets.

Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments that are each explained by simpler dynamic units. Building on switching linear dynamical systems (SLDS), we develop a model class and Bayesian inference algorithms that not only discover these dynamical units but also, by learning how transition probabilities depend on observations or continuous latent states, explain their switching behavior. Our key innovation is to design these recurrent SLDS models to enable recent Pólya-gamma auxiliary variable techniques and thus make approximate Bayesian learning and inference in these models easy, fast, and scalable.

We propose a black-box variational inference method to approximate intractable distributions with an increasingly rich approximating class. Our method, variational boosting, iteratively refines an existing variational approximation by solving a sequence of optimization problems, allowing a trade-off between computation time and accuracy. We expand the variational approximating class by incorporating additional covariance structure and by introducing new components to form a mixture. We apply variational boosting to synthetic and real statistical models, and show that the resulting posterior inferences compare favorably to existing variational algorithms.

Optimization with noisy gradients has become ubiquitous in statistics and machine learning. Reparameterization gradients, or gradient estimates computed via the ``reparameterization trick,'' represent a class of noisy gradients often used in Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI). However, when these gradient estimators are too noisy, the optimization procedure can be slow or fail to converge. One way to reduce noise is to generate more samples for the gradient estimate, but this can be computationally expensive. Instead, we view the noisy gradient as a random variable, and form an inexpensive approximation of the generating procedure for the gradient sample. This approximation has high correlation with the noisy gradient by construction, making it a useful control variate for variance reduction. We demonstrate our approach on a non-conjugate hierarchical model and a Bayesian neural net where our method attained orders of magnitude (20-2{,}000$\times$) reduction in gradient variance resulting in faster and more stable optimization.

We present a new, fully generative model of optical telescope image sets, along with a variational procedure for inference. Each pixel intensity is treated as a Poisson random variable, with a rate parameter dependent on latent properties of stars and galaxies. Key latent properties are themselves random, with scientific prior distributions constructed from large ancillary data sets. We check our approach on synthetic images. We also run it on images from a major sky survey, where it exceeds the performance of the current state-of-the-art method for locating celestial bodies and measuring their colors.

We propose a method for combining two sources of astronomical data, spectroscopy and photometry, that carry information about sources of light (e.g., stars, galaxies, and quasars) at extremely different spectral resolutions. Our model treats the spectral energy distribution (SED) of the radiation from a source as a latent variable that jointly explains both photometric and spectroscopic observations. We place a flexible, nonparametric prior over the SED of a light source that admits a physically interpretable decomposition, and allows us to tractably perform inference. We use our model to predict the distribution of the redshift of a quasar from five-band (low spectral resolution) photometric data, the so called ``photo-z'' problem. Our method shows that tools from machine learning and Bayesian statistics allow us to leverage multiple resolutions of information to make accurate predictions with well-characterized uncertainties.

We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an heuristic, imprecise manner that relies on unmeasured intuitions about player behavior. This makes it difficult to draw comparisons between players and make accurate player specific predictions. Modeling shot attempt data as a point process, we create a low dimensional representation of offensive player types in the NBA. Using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF), an unsupervised dimensionality reduction technique, we show that a low-rank spatial decomposition summarizes the shooting habits of NBA players. The spatial representations discovered by the algorithm correspond to intuitive descriptions of NBA player types, and can be used to model other spatial effects, such as shooting accuracy.