Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world processes, like in the context of activity tracking, biological time series, or industrial monitoring, often switch behavior over time. Such behavior switches can be modeled as transitions between higher-level modes (e.g., running, walking, etc.). Yet all modes are usually not previously known, often exhibit vastly differing transition probabilities, and can switch unpredictably. Thus, to track behavior changes of live, real-world processes, this study proposes an online and efficient method to construct Evolving Markov chains (EMCs). EMCs adaptively track transition probabilities, automatically discover modes, and detect mode switches in an online manner. In contrast to previous work, EMCs are of arbitrary order, the proposed update scheme does not rely on tracking windows, only updates the relevant region of the probability tensor, and enjoys geometric convergence of the expected estimates. Our evaluation of synthetic data and real-world applications on human activity recognition, electric motor condition monitoring, and eye-state recognition from electroencephalography (EEG) measurements illustrates the versatility of the approach and points to the potential of EMCs to efficiently track, model, and understand live, real-world processes.

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly employed in real-world applications like medicine or economics, thus, potentially affecting large populations. However, ML models often do not perform homogeneously, leading to underperformance or, conversely, unusually high performance in certain subgroups (e.g., sex=female ∧ marital_status=married). Identifying such subgroups can support practical decisions on which subpopulation a model is safe to deploy or where more training data is required. However, an efficient and coherent framework for effective search is missing. Consequently, we introduce SubROC, an open-source, easy-to-use framework based on Exceptional Model Mining for reliably and efficiently finding strengths and weaknesses of classification models in the form of interpretable population subgroups. SubROC incorporates common evaluation measures (ROC and PR AUC), efficient search space pruning for fast exhaustive subgroup search, control for class imbalance, adjustment for redundant patterns, and significance testing. We illustrate the practical benefits of SubROC in case studies as well as in comparative analyses across multiple datasets.

Abstract The term Behavioral Networks describes networks that contain relational information on human behavior. This ranges from social networks that contain friendships or cooperations between individuals, to navigational networks that contain geographical or web navigation, and many more. Understanding the forces driving behavior within these networks can be beneficial to improving the underlying network, for example, by generating new hyperlinks on websites, or by proposing new connections and friends on social networks. Previous approaches considered different hypotheses on a single network and evaluated which hypothesis fits best. These hypotheses can represent human intuition and expert opinions or be based on previous insights. In this work, we extend these approaches to enable the comparison of a single hypothesis between multiple networks. We unveil several issues of naive approaches that potentially impact comparisons and lead to undesired results. Based on these findings, we propose a framework with five flexible components that allow addressing specific analysis goals tailored to the application scenario. We show the benefits and limits of our approach by applying it to synthetic data and several real-world datasets, including web navigation, bibliometric navigation, and geographic navigation. Our work supports practitioners and researchers with the aim of understanding similarities and differences in human behavior between environments.

This paper introduces Redescription Model Mining, a novel approach to identify interpretable patterns across two datasets that share only a subset of attributes and have no common instances. In particular, Redescription Model Mining aims to find pairs of describable data subsets -- one for each dataset -- that induce similar exceptional models with respect to a prespecified model class. To achieve this, we combine two previously separate research areas: Exceptional Model Mining and Redescription Mining. For this new problem setting, we develop interestingness measures to select promising patterns, propose efficient algorithms, and demonstrate their potential on synthetic and real-world data. Uncovered patterns can hint at common underlying phenomena that manifest themselves across datasets, enabling the discovery of possible associations between (combinations of) attributes that do not appear in the same dataset.

Social tagging systems have established themselves as a quick and easy way to organize information by annotating resources with tags. In recent work, user behavior in social tagging systems was studied, that is, how users assign tags, and consume content. However, it is still unclear how users make use of the navigation options they are given. Understanding their behavior and differences in behavior of different user groups is an important step towards assessing the effectiveness of a navigational concept and improving it to better suit the users' needs. In this work, we investigate navigation trails in the popular scholarly social tagging system BibSonomy from six years of log data. We discuss dynamic browsing behavior of the general user population and show that different navigational subgroups exhibit different navigational traits. Furthermore, we provide strong evidence that the semantic nature of the underlying folksonomy is an essential factor for explaining navigation.

We present a new method for detecting interpretable subgroups with exceptional transition behavior in sequential data. Identifying such patterns has many potential applications, e.g., for studying human mobility or analyzing the behavior of internet users. To tackle this task, we employ exceptional model mining, which is a general approach for identifying interpretable data subsets that exhibit unusual interactions between a set of target attributes with respect to a certain model class. Although exceptional model mining provides a well-suited framework for our problem, previously investigated model classes cannot capture transition behavior. To that end, we introduce first-order Markov chains as a novel model class for exceptional model mining and present a new interestingness measure that quantifies the exceptionality of transition subgroups. The measure compares the distance between the Markov transition matrix of a subgroup and the respective matrix of the entire data with the distance of random dataset samples. In addition, our method can be adapted to find subgroups that match or contradict given transition hypotheses. We demonstrate that our method is consistently able to recover subgroups with exceptional transition models from synthetic data and illustrate its potential in two application examples. Our work is relevant for researchers and practitioners interested in detecting exceptional transition behavior in sequential data.