We present a personalized and reliable prediction model for healthcare, which can provide individually tailored medical services such as diagnosis, disease treatment, and prevention. Our proposed framework targets at making personalized and reliable predictions from time-series data, such as Electronic Health Records (EHR), by modeling two complementary components: i) a shared component that captures global trend across diverse patients and ii) a patient-specific component that models idiosyncratic variability for each patient. To this end, we propose a composite model of a deep neural network to learn complex global trends from the large number of patients, and Gaussian Processes (GP) to probabilistically model individual time-series given relatively small number of visits per patient. We evaluate our model on diverse and heterogeneous tasks from EHR datasets and show practical advantages over standard time-series deep models such as pure Recurrent Neural Network (RNN).

We propose a novel interactive learning framework which we refer to as Interactive Attention Learning (IAL), in which the human supervisors interactively manipulate the allocated attentions, to correct the model’s behaviour by updating the attention-generating network. However, such a model is prone to overfitting due to scarcity of human annotations, and requires costly retraining. Moreover, it is almost infeasible for the human annotators to examine attentions on tons of instances and features. We tackle these challenges by proposing a sample-efficient attention mechanism and a cost-effective reranking algorithm for instances and features. First, we propose Neural Attention Processes (NAP), which is an attention generator that can update its behaviour by incorporating new attention-level supervisions without any retraining. Secondly, we propose an algorithm which prioritizes the instances and the features by their negative impacts, such that the model can yield large improvements with minimal human feedback. We validate IAL on various time-series datasets from multiple domains (healthcare, real-estate, and computer vision) on which it significantly outperforms baselines with conventional attention mechanisms, or without cost-effective reranking, with substantially less retraining and human-model interaction cost.

Attention mechanism is effective in both focusing the deep learning models on relevant features and interpreting them. However, attentions may be unreliable since the networks that generate them are often trained in a weakly-supervised manner. To overcome this limitation, we introduce the notion of input-dependent uncertainty to the attention mechanism, such that it generates attention for each feature with varying degrees of noise based on the given input, to learn larger variance on instances it is uncertain about. We learn this Uncertainty-aware Attention (UA) mechanism using variational inference, and validate it on various risk prediction tasks from electronic health records on which our model significantly outperforms existing attention models. The analysis of the learned attentions shows that our model generates attentions that comply with clinicians' interpretation, and provide richer interpretation via learned variance. Further evaluation of both the accuracy of the uncertainty calibration and the prediction performance with "I don't know'' decision show that UA yields networks with high reliability as well.