Many areas of artificial intelligence, and machine learning in particular, aim at being probably correct, i.e., valid on average, rather than pursuing the idealistic goal of being provably valid for all inputs. However, AI systems could still be predictably valid, such as an imperfect robot deliverer for which we can reliably and precisely predict the task instances for which it is correct and safe, its valid operating range. “Predictable AI” is a nascent research area that explores ways of anticipating key validity indicators (e.g., performance, safety) of present and future AI ecosystems. We argue that achieving predictability is crucial for fostering trust, liability, control, alignment and safety of AI, and thus should be prioritised over performance. We formally characterise predictability, explore its most relevant components, illustrate what can be predicted, describe alternative candidates for predictors, as well as the trade-offs between maximising validity and predictability. To illustrate these concepts, we bring an array of illustrative examples covering diverse ecosystem configurations. “Predictable AI” is related to other areas of technical and non-technical AI research, but have distinctive questions, hypotheses, techniques and challenges. This paper aims to elucidate them, calls for identifying paths towards a landscape of predictably valid AI systems and outlines the potential impact of this emergent field.

Research in AI evaluation has grown increasingly complex and multidisciplinary, attracting researchers with diverse backgrounds and objectives. As a result, divergent evaluation paradigms have emerged, often developing in isolation, adopting conflicting terminologies, and overlooking each other's contributions. This fragmentation has led to insular research trajectories and communication barriers both among different paradigms and with the general public, contributing to unmet expectations for deployed AI systems. To help bridge this insularity, in this paper we survey recent work in the AI evaluation landscape and identify six main paradigms. We characterise major recent contributions within each paradigm across key dimensions related to their goals, methodologies and research cultures. By clarifying the unique combination of questions and approaches associated with each paradigm, we aim to increase awareness of the breadth of current evaluation approaches and foster cross-pollination between different paradigms. We also identify potential gaps in the field to inspire future research directions.

Even with obvious deficiencies, large prompt-commanded multimodal models are proving to be flexible cognitive tools representing an unprecedented generality. But the directness, diversity, and degree of user interaction create a distinctive “human-centred generality” (HCG), rather than a fully autonomous one. HCG implies that —for a specific user— a system is only as general as it is effective for the user’s relevant tasks and their prevalent ways of prompting. A human-centred evaluation of general-purpose AI systems therefore needs to reflect the personal nature of interaction, tasks and cognition. We argue that the best way to understand these systems is as highly-coupled cognitive extenders, and to analyse the bidirectional cognitive adaptations between them and humans. In this paper, we give a formulation of HCG, as well as a high-level overview of the elements and trade-offs involved in the prompting process. We end the paper by outlining some essential research questions and suggestions for improving evaluation practices, which we envision as characteristic for the evaluation of general artificial intelligence in the future.

Even with obvious deficiencies, large prompt-commanded multimodal models are proving to be flexible cognitive tools representing an unprecedented generality. But the directness, diversity, and degree of user interaction create a distinctive “human-centred generality” (HCG), rather than a fully autonomous one. HCG implies that —for a specific user— a system is only as general as it is effective for the user’s relevant tasks and their prevalent ways of prompting. A human-centred evaluation of general-purpose AI systems therefore needs to reflect the personal nature of interaction, tasks and cognition. We argue that the best way to understand these systems is as highly-coupled cognitive extenders, and to analyse the bidirectional cognitive adaptations between them and humans. In this paper, we give a formulation of HCG, as well as a high-level overview of the elements and trade-offs involved in the prompting process. We end the paper by outlining some essential research questions and suggestions for improving evaluation practices, which we envision as characteristic for the evaluation of general artificial intelligence in the future. This paper appears in the AI & Society track.

The new generation of language models is reported to solve some extraordinary tasks the models were never trained for specifically, in few-shot or zero-shot settings. However, these reports usually cherry-pick the tasks, use the best prompts, and unwrap or extract the solutions leniently even if they are followed by nonsensical text. In sum, they are specialised results for one domain, a particular way of using the models and interpreting the results. In this paper, we present a novel theoretical evaluation framework and a distinctive experimental study assessing language models as general-purpose systems when used directly by human prompters --- in the wild. For a useful and safe interaction in these increasingly more common conditions, we need to understand when the model fails because of a lack of capability or a misunderstanding of the user's intents. Our results indicate that language models such as GPT-3 have limited understanding of the human command; far from becoming general-purpose systems in the wild.

In AI evaluation, performance is often calculated by averaging across various instances. But to fully understand the capabilities of an AI system, we need to understand the factors that cause its pattern of success and failure. In this paper, we present a new methodology to identify and build informative instance features that can provide explanatory and predictive power to analyse the behaviour of AI systems more robustly. The methodology builds on these relevant features that should relate monotonically with success, and represents patterns of performance in a new type of plots known as ‘agent characteristic grids’. We illustrate this methodology with the Animal-AI competition as a representative example of how we can revisit existing competitions and benchmarks in AI—even when evaluation data is sparse. Agents with the same average performance can show very different patterns of performance at the instance level. With this methodology, these patterns can be visualised, explained and predicted, progressing towards a capability-oriented evaluation rather than relying on a less informative average performance score.

Potential Based Reward Shaping combined with a potential function based on appropriately defined abstract knowledge has been shown to significantly improve learning speed in Reinforcement Learning. MultiGrid Reinforcement Learning (MRL) has further shown that such abstract knowledge in the form of a potential function can be learned almost solely from agent interaction with the environment. However, we show that MRL faces the problem of not extending well to work with Deep Learning. In this paper we extend and improve MRL to take advantage of modern Deep Learning algorithms such as Deep Q-Networks (DQN). We show that DQN augmented with our approach perform significantly better on continuous control tasks than its Vanilla counterpart and DQN augmented with MRL.