Online publishers typically sell ad impressions through auctions held in ad exchanges in real-time, i.e., real-time bidding (RTB). A publisher will accept the winning bid if it is higher than a given reserve price for an ad impression. Setting an appropriate reserve price for an ad impression is critical for publishers’ revenue generation, but also challenging. While this problem has been studied for second-price auctions, it lacks studies for first-price auctions, the de facto industry standard since 2019. This paper proposes a machine learning model that determines the optimal reserve prices for individual ad impressions in real-time. It uses a multi-task learning framework to predict the lower bounds of the highest bids with a coverage probability, using only the data available to publishers. The experiments using data from a large international publisher show that the proposed model outperforms the comparison systems on generating revenue.

The fast growing ad-blocker usage results in large revenue decrease for ad-supported online websites. Facing this problem, many online publishers choose either to cooperate with ad-blocker software companies to show acceptable ads or to build a wall that requires users to whitelist the site for content access. However, there is lack of studies on the impact of these two counter-ad-blocking strategies on user behaviors. To address this issue, we conduct a randomized field experiment on the website of Forbes Media, a major US media publisher. The ad-blocker users are divided into a treatment group, which receives the wall strategy, and a control group, which receives the acceptable ads strategy. We utilize the difference-in-differences method to estimate the causal effects. Our study shows that the wall strategy has an overall negative impact on user engagements. However, it has no statistically significant effect on high-engaged users as they would view the pages no matter what strategy is used. It has a big impact on low-engaged users, who have no loyalty to the site. Our study also shows that revisiting behavior decreases over time, but the ratio of session whitelisting increases over time as the remaining users have relatively high loyalty and high engagement. The paper concludes with discussions of managerial insights for publishers when determining counter-ad-blocking strategies.

The fast increase in ad blocker usage results in large revenue loss for online publishers and advertisers. Many publishers initialize counter-ad-blocking strategies, where a user has to choose either whitelisting the publisher's web site in their ad blocker or leaving the site without accessing the content. This paper aims to predict the user whitelisting behavior, which can help online publishers to better assess users' interests and design corresponding strategies. We present several techniques for personalized whitelist prediction for a target user and a target web page. Our prediction models are evaluated on real-world data provided by a large online publisher, Forbes Media. The best prediction performance was achieved using the gradient boosting regression tree model, which also demonstrated robustness and efficiency.

The revenue of online display advertising in the U.S. is projected to be 7.9 billion U.S. dollars by 2022. One main way of display advertising is through real-time bidding (RTB). In RTB, an ad exchange runs a second price auction among multiple advertisers to sell each ad impression. Publishers usually set up a reserve price, the lowest price acceptable for an ad impression. If there are bids higher than the reserve price, then the revenue is the higher price between the reserve price and the second highest bid; otherwise, the revenue is zero. Thus, a higher reserve price can potentially increase the revenue, but with higher risks associated. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the failure rate of a reserve price, i.e., the probability that a reserve price fails to be outbid. The solution to this problem have managerial implications to publishers to set appropriate reserve prices in order to minimizes the risks and optimize the expected revenue. This problem is highly challenging since most publishers do not know the historical highest bidding prices offered by RTB advertisers. To address this problem, we develop a parametric survival model for reserve price failure rate prediction. The model is further improved by considering user and page interactions, and header bidding information. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Display advertising is the most important revenue source for publishers in the online publishing industry. The ad pricing standards are shifting to a new model in which ads are paid only if they are viewed. Consequently, an important problem for publishers is to predict the probability that an ad at a given page depth will be shown on a user's screen for a certain dwell time. This paper proposes deep learning models based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict the viewability of any page depth for any given dwell time. The main novelty of our best model consists in the combination of bi-directional LSTM networks, encoder-decoder structure, and residual connections. The experimental results over a dataset collected from a large online publisher demonstrate that the proposed LSTM-based sequential neural networks outperform the comparison methods in terms of prediction performance.

A half of online display ads are not rendered viewable because the users do not scroll deep enough or spend sufficient time at the page depth where the ads are placed. In order to increase the marketing efficiency and ad effectiveness, there is a strong demand for viewability prediction from both advertisers and publishers. This paper aims to predict the dwell time for a given triplet based on historic data collected by publishers. This problem is difficult because of user behavior variability and data sparsity. To solve it, we propose predictive models based on Factorization Machines and Field‐aware Factorization Machines in order to overcome the data sparsity issue and provide flexibility to add auxiliary information such as the visible area of a user's browser. In addition, we leverage the prior dwell time behavior of the user within the current page view, that is, time series information, to further improve the proposed models. Experimental results using data from a large web publisher demonstrate that the proposed models outperform comparison models. Also, the results show that adding time series information further improves the performance.

Online display advertising has becomes a billion-dollar industry, and it keeps growing. Advertisers attempt to send marketing messages to attract potential customers via graphic banner ads on publishers' webpages. Advertisers are charged for each view of a page that delivers their display ads. However, recent studies have discovered that more than half of the ads are never shown on users' screens due to insufficient scrolling. Thus, advertisers waste a great amount of money on these ads that do not bring any return on investment. Given this situation, the Interactive Advertising Bureau calls for a shift toward charging by viewable impression, i.e., charge for ads that are viewed by users. With this new pricing model, it is helpful to predict the viewability of an ad. This paper proposes two probabilistic latent class models (PLC) that predict the viewability of any given scroll depth for a user-page pair. Using a real-life dataset from a large publisher, the experiments demonstrate that our models outperform comparison systems.

The amount of time spent by users at specific page depths within webpages, called dwell time, can be used by web publishers to decide where to place online ads and what type of ads to place at different depths within a webpage. This paper presents a model to predict the dwell time for a given "user, webpage, depth" triplet based on historic data collected by publishers. Dwell time prediction is difficult due to user behavior variability and data sparsity. We adopt the Factorization Machines model because it is able to capture the interaction between users and webpages, overcome the data sparsity issue, and provide flexibility to add auxiliary information such as the visible area of a user's browser. Experimental results using data from a large web publisher demonstrate that our model outperforms deterministic and regression-based comparison models.

As a massive industry, display advertising delivers advertisers' marketing messages to attract customers through graphic banners on webpages. Advertisers are charged by ad serving, where their ads are shown in web pages. However, recent studies show that about half of the ads were actually never seen by users because they do not scroll deep enough to bring the ads in-view. Thus, the ad pricing standards are shifting to a new model: ads are paid if they are in view, not just being served. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to address the important problem of ad viewability prediction which can improve the performance of guaranteed ad delivery, real-time bidding, as well as recommender systems. We analyze a real-life dataset from a large publisher, identify a number of features that impact the scroll depth for a given user and a page, and propose a probabilistic latent class model that predicts the viewability of any given scroll depth for a user-page pair. The experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms comparison systems based on singular value decomposition and logistic regression, in terms of prediction quality and training time.