XiaoPeng Yu, Wanpeng Zhang, Zongqing Lu. Proceedings of the 2025 Conference of the Nations of the Americas Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2025.

Planning under opponent uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in multi-agent environments, where an agent must act while inferring the hidden policies of its opponents. Existing type-based methods rely on manually defined behavior classes and struggle to scale, while model-free approaches are sample-inefficient and lack a principled way to incorporate uncertainty into planning. We propose Quantized Opponent Models (QOM), which learn a compact catalog of opponent types via a quantized autoencoder and maintain a Bayesian belief over these types online. This posterior supports both a belief-weighted meta-policy and a Monte-Carlo planning algorithm that directly integrates uncertainty, enabling real-time belief updates and focused exploration. Experiments show that QOM achieves superior performance with lower search cost, offering a tractable and effective solution for belief-aware planning.

When an agent is in a multi-agent environment, it may face previously unseen opponents, and it is a challenge to cooperate with other agents to accomplish the task together or to maximize its own rewards. Most opponent modeling methods deal with the non-stationarity caused by unknown opponent policies via predicting the opponent’s actions. However, focusing on the opponent’s action is shortsighted, which also constrains the adaptability to unknown opponents in complex tasks. In this paper, we propose opponent modeling based on subgoal inference, which infers the opponent’s subgoals through historical trajectories. As subgoals are likely to be shared by different opponent policies, predicting subgoals can yield better generalization to unknown opponents. Additionally, we design two subgoal selection modes for cooperative games and general-sum games respectively. Empirically, we show that our method achieves more effective adaptation than existing methods in a variety of tasks.

When one agent interacts with a multi-agent environment, it is challenging to deal with various opponents unseen before. Modeling the behaviors, goals, or beliefs of opponents could help the agent adjust its policy to adapt to different opponents. In addition, it is also important to consider opponents who are learning simultaneously or capable of reasoning. However, existing work usually tackles only one of the aforementioned types of opponents. In this paper, we propose model-based opponent modeling (MBOM), which employs the environment model to adapt to all kinds of opponents. MBOM simulates the recursive reasoning process in the environment model and imagines a set of improving opponent policies. To effectively and accurately represent the opponent policy, MBOM further mixes the imagined opponent policies according to the similarity with the real behaviors of opponents. Empirically, we show that MBOM achieves more effective adaptation than existing methods in a variety of tasks, respectively with different types of opponents, i.e., fixed policy, naive learner, and reasoning learner.