Predicting market risk factors is a critical challenge in financial research, with significant implications for portfolio management, systemic risk control, and macroeconomic stability. In this work, we propose a novel framework, named SAT, which combines domain knowledge from the Barra Multi-Factor Model with advanced deep learning techniques. This model is designed to effectively capture both short-term fluctuations and long-term dependencies in non-stationary and high-dimensional financial time series data. The proposed framework aggregates individual stock risk factors into market-level indicators using a market capitalization-weighted approach, enabling a comprehensive representation of market dynamics. The model architecture incorporates a Local and Long-term Awareness (LLA) module to capture multi-scale temporal patterns, a Sparse Attention mechanism to highlight critical variables while reducing noise, and a Transformer Block for learning inter-variable dependencies. Empirical evaluations on real-world financial datasets show that the proposed SAT achieves superior performance, with MSE = 0.0077 and MAE = 0.0666, outperforming other conventional forecasting models. These findings highlight the model’s capability to provide precise market risk predictions, effectively reflect changes in market volatility, and offer actionable insights for improving financial risk management and investment strategies.

Chemical is an experiment-oriented lesson that plays an important role in middle school curriculum. However, traditional chemical experiment has many disadvantages. Simulation technology based on game platform has attracted many educators and teachers, which can overcome limitations of traditional chemical experiments [1]. This paper designs a chemistry experiment simulation based on Unity3D game engine, which simulates many chemical phenomena such as sedimentation, gas generation, combustion, discoloration, etc. Students can perform chemical experiments in this application via simple interaction and observe the experimental results. Furthermore, this paper constructs a chemical experimental simulation software library, which can be reused to other chemical experiment simulation applications.

Chronic diseases like cancer and diabetes are major threats to human life. Understanding the distribution and progression of chronic diseases of a population is important in assisting the allocation of medical resources as well as the design of policies in preemptive healthcare. Traditional methods to obtain large scale indicators on population health, e.g., surveys and statistical analysis, can be costly and time-consuming and often lead to a coarse spatio-temporal picture. In this paper, we leverage a dataset describing the human mobility patterns of citizens in a large metropolitan area. By viewing local human lifestyles we predict the evolution rate of several chronic diseases at the level of a city neighborhood. We apply the combination of a collaborative topic modeling (CTM) and a Gaussian mixture method (GMM) to tackle the data sparsity challenge and achieve robust predictions on health conditions simultaneously. Our method enables the analysis and prediction of disease rate evolution at fine spatio-temporal scales and demonstrates the potential of incorporating datasets from mobile web sources to improve population health monitoring. Evaluations using real-world check-in and chronic disease morbidity datasets in the city of London show that the proposed CTM+GMM model outperforms various baseline methods.

Serious game as a new educational technology product, with the concepts of education and game widening, gradually has a lot of new highlights. The update of the hardware device and applications, increasingly interesting contents and interactions make serious game carrying more diverse functions and playing more important parts. At the same time, more possibilities also bring more challenges and risks. This article will take the serious game app Beaker as an example to analyze the current situation of serious game development, integration with the field of education, interactive innovation in the serious games, and upcoming problems with available development strategies.

Product sales forecasting enables comprehensive understanding of products' future development, making it of particular interest for companies to improve their business, for investors to measure the values of firms, and for users to capture the trends of a market. Recent studies show that the complex competition interactions among products directly influence products' future development. However, most existing approaches fail to model the evolutionary competition among products and lack the capability to organically reflect multi-level competition analysis in sales forecasting. To address these problems, we propose the Evolutionary Hierarchical Competition Model (EHCM), which effectively considers the time-evolving multi-level competition among products. The EHCM model systematically integrates hierarchical competition analysis with multi-scale time series forecasting. Extensive experiments using a real-world app download dataset show that EHCM outperforms state-of-the-art methods in various forecasting granularities.

What people buy is an important aspect or view of lifestyles. Studying people's shopping patterns in different urban regions can not only provide valuable information for various commercial opportunities, but also enable a better understanding about urban infrastructure and urban lifestyle. In this paper, we aim to predict citywide shopping patterns. This is a challenging task due to the sparsity of the available data -- over 60% of the city regions are unknown for their shopping records. To address this problem, we incorporate another important view of human lifestyles, namely mobility patterns. With information on "where people go", we infer "what people buy". Moreover, to model the relations between regions, we exploit spatial interactions in our method. To that end, Collective Matrix Factorization (CMF) with an interaction regularization model is applied to fuse the data from multiple views or sources. Our experimental results have shown that our model outperforms the baseline methods on two standard metrics. Our prediction results on multiple shopping patterns reveal the divergent demands in different urban regions, and thus reflect key functional characteristics of a city. Furthermore, we are able to extract the connection between the two views of lifestyles, and achieve a better or novel understanding of urban lifestyles.

Fine-grained long-term forecasting enables many emerging recommendation applications such as forecasting the usage amounts of various apps to guide future investments, and forecasting users' seasonal demands for a certain commodity to find potential repeat buyers. For these applications, there often exists certain homogeneity in terms of similar users and items (e.g., apps), which also correlates with various contexts like users' spatial movements and physical environments. Most existing works only focus on predicting the upcoming situation such as the next used app or next online purchase, without considering the long-term temporal co-evolution of items and contexts and the homogeneity among all dimensions. In this paper, we propose a contextual collaborative forecasting (CCF) model to address the above issues. The model integrates contextual collaborative filtering with time series analysis, and simultaneously captures various components of temporal patterns, including trend, seasonality, and stationarity. The approach models the temporal homogeneity of similar users, items, and contexts. We evaluate the model on a large real-world app usage dataset, which validates that CCF outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both accuracy and efficiency for long-term app usage forecasting.

A new paradigm of recommendation is emerging in intelligent personal assistants such as Apple's Siri, Google Now, and Microsoft Cortana, which recommends "the right information at the right time" and proactively helps you "get things done". This type of recommendation requires precisely tracking users' contemporaneous intent, i.e., what type of information (e.g., weather, stock prices) users currently intend to know, and what tasks (e.g., playing music, getting taxis) they intend to do. Users' intent is closely related to context, which includes both external environments such as time and location, and users' internal activities that can be sensed by personal assistants. The relationship between context and intent exhibits complicated co-occurring and sequential correlation, and contextual signals are also heterogeneous and sparse, which makes modeling the context intent relationship a challenging task. To solve the intent tracking problem, we propose the Kalman filter regularized PARAFAC2 (KP2) nowcasting model, which compactly represents the structure and co-movement of context and intent. The KP2 model utilizes collaborative capabilities among users, and learns for each user a personalized dynamic system that enables efficient nowcasting of users' intent. Extensive experiments using real-world data sets from a commercial personal assistant show that the KP2 model significantly outperforms various methods, and provides inspiring implications for deploying large-scale proactive recommendation systems in personal assistants.

Mobility prediction enables appealing proactive experiences for location-aware services and offers essential intelligence to business and governments. Recent studies suggest that human mobility is highly regular and predictable. Additionally, social conformity theory indicates that people's movements are influenced by others. However, existing approaches for location prediction fail to organically combine both the regularity and conformity of human mobility in a unified model, and lack the capacity to incorporate heterogeneous mobility datasets to boost prediction performance. To address these challenges, in this paper we propose a hybrid predictive model integrating both the regularity and conformity of human mobility as well as their mutual reinforcement. In addition, we further elevate the predictive power of our model by learning location profiles from heterogeneous mobility datasets based on a gravity model. We evaluate the proposed model using several city-scale mobility datasets including location check-ins, GPS trajectories of taxis, and public transit data. The experimental results validate that our model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for mobility prediction in terms of multiple metrics such as accuracy and percentile rank. The results also suggest that the predictability of human mobility is time-varying, e.g., the overall predictability is higher on workdays than holidays while predicting users' unvisited locations is more challenging for workdays than holidays.

The step of urbanization and modern civilization fosters different functional zones in a city, such as residential areas, business districts, and educational areas. In a metropolis, people commute between these functional zones every day to engage in different socioeconomic activities, e.g., working, shopping, and entertaining. In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework to discover functional zones in a city. Specifically, we introduce the concept of latent activity trajectory (LAT), which captures socioeconomic activities conducted by citizens at different locations in a chronological order. Later, we segment an urban area into disjointed regions according to major roads, such as highways and urban expressways. We have developed a topic-modeling-based approach to cluster the segmented regions into functional zones leveraging mobility and location semantics mined from LAT. Furthermore, we identify the intensity of each functional zone using Kernel Density Estimation. Extensive experiments are conducted with several urban scale datasets to show that the proposed framework offers a powerful ability to capture city dynamics and provides valuable calibrations to urban planners in terms of functional zones.

Smart card transactions capture rich information of human mobility and urban dynamics, therefore are of particular interest to urban planners and location-based service providers. However, since most transaction systems are only designated for billing purpose, typically, fine-grained location information, such as the exact boarding and alighting stops of a bus trip, is only partially or not available at all, which blocks deep exploitation of this rich and valuable data at individual level. This paper presents a "space alignment" framework to reconstruct individual mobility history from a large-scale smart card transaction dataset pertaining to a metropolitan city. Specifically, we show that by delicately aligning the monetary space and geospatial space with the temporal space, we are able to extrapolate a series of critical domain specific constraints. Later, these constraints are naturally incorporated into a semi-supervised conditional random field to infer the exact boarding and alighting stops of all transit routes with a surprisingly high accuracy, e.g., given only 10% trips with known alighting/boarding stops, we successfully inferred more than 78% alighting and boarding stops from all unlabeled trips. In addition, we demonstrated that the smart card data enriched by the proposed approach dramatically improved the performance of a conventional method for identifying users' home and work places (with 88% improvement on home detection and 35% improvement on work place detection). The proposed method offers the possibility to mine individual mobility from common public transit transactions, and showcases how uncertain data can be leveraged with domain knowledge and constraints, to support cross-application data mining tasks.