Causal discovery algorithms are increasingly being used to discover valid, novel, and significant causal relationships from large amounts of observational data. Cyberattacks are hypothesized to evolve according to the Cyber Kill Chain® which consists of a causal model describing the phases of a cyberattack. This paper introduces causal discovery to cybersecurity research and provides evidence of the kill chain with an extensive empirical assessment of two databases of real cyberattacks.

We propose a probabilistic approach to the problem of schema mapping. Our approach is declarative, scalable, and extensible. It builds upon recent results in both schema mapping and probabilistic reasoning and contributes novel techniques in both fields. We introduce the problem of schema mapping selection, that is, choosing the best mapping from a space of potential mappings, given both metadata constraints and a data example. As selection has to reason holistically about the inputs and the dependencies between the chosen mappings, we define a new schema mapping optimization problem which captures interactions between mappings as well as inconsistencies and incompleteness in the input. We then introduce Collective Mapping Discovery (CMD), our solution to this problem using state-of-the-art probabilistic reasoning techniques. Our evaluation on a wide range of integration scenarios, including several real-world domains, demonstrates that CMD effectively combines data and metadata information to infer highly accurate mappings even with significant levels of noise.

We propose a probabilistic approach to the problem of schema mapping. Our approach is declarative, scalable, and extensible. It builds upon recent results in both schema mapping and probabilistic reasoning and contributes novel techniques in both fields. We introduce the problem of mapping selection, that is, choosing the best mapping from a space of potential mappings, given both metadata constraints and a data example. As selection has to reason holistically about the inputs and the dependencies between the chosen mappings, we define a new schema mapping optimization problem which captures interactions between mappings. We then introduce Collective Mapping Discovery (CMD), our solution to this problem using stateof- the-art probabilistic reasoning techniques, which allows for inconsistencies and incompleteness. Using hundreds of realistic integration scenarios, we demonstrate that the accuracy of CMD is more than 33% above that of metadata-only approaches already for small data examples, and that CMD routinely finds perfect mappings even if a quarter of the data is inconsistent.

This paper reports on methods and results of an applied research project by a team consisting of SAIC and four universities to develop, integrate, and evaluate new approaches to detect the weak signals characteristic of insider threats on organizations' information systems. Our system combines structural and semantic information from a real corporate database of monitored activity on their users' computers to detect independently developed red team inserts of malicious insider activities. We have developed and applied multiple algorithms for anomaly detection based on suspected scenarios of malicious insider behavior, indicators of unusual activities, high-dimensional statistical patterns, temporal sequences, and normal graph evolution. Algorithms and representations for dynamic graph processing provide the ability to scale as needed for enterprise-level deployments on real-time data streams. We have also developed a visual language for specifying combinations of features, baselines, peer groups, time periods, and algorithms to detect anomalies suggestive of instances of insider threat behavior. We defined over 100 data features in seven categories based on approximately 5.5 million actions per day from approximately 5,500 users. We have achieved area under the ROC curve values of up to 0.979 and lift values of 65 on the top 50 user-days identified on two months of real data.