Best arm identification (BAI) aims to identify the highest- performance arm among a set of K arms by collecting stochastic samples from each arm. In real-world problems, the best arm needs to satisfy additional feasibility constraints. While there is limited prior work on BAI with feasibility constraints, they typically assume the performance and con- straints are observed simultaneously on each pull of an arm. However, this assumption does not reflect most practical use cases, e.g., in drug discovery, we wish to find the most potent drug whose toxicity and solubility are below certain safety thresholds. These safety experiments can be conducted separately from the potency measurement. Thus, this requires de- signing BAI algorithms that not only decide which arm to pull but also decide whether to test for the arm’s performance or feasibility. In this work, we study feasible BAI which allows a decision-maker to choose a tuple (i, ℓ), where i ∈ [K] de- notes an arm and ℓ denotes whether she wishes to test for its performance (ℓ = 0) or any of its N feasibility constraints (ℓ ∈ [N ]). We focus on the fixed confidence setting, which is to identify the feasible arm with the highest performance, with a probability of at least 1 − δ. We propose an efficient algorithm and upper-bound its sample complexity, showing our algorithm can naturally adapt to the problem’s difficulty and eliminate arms by worse performance or infeasibility, whichever is easier. We complement this upper bound with a lower bound showing that our algorithm is asymptotically (δ → 0) optimal. Finally, we empirically show that our algorithm outperforms other state-of-the-art BAI algorithms in both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Data collection is a critical component of modern statistical and machine learning pipelines, particularly when data must be gathered from multiple heterogeneous sources to study a target population of interest. In many use cases, such as medical studies or political polling, different sources incur different sampling costs. Observations often have associated group identities—for example, health markers, demographics, or political affiliations—and the relative composition of these groups may differ substantially, both among the source populations and between sources and target population. Moreover, while group proportions are often known at the source and population levels, individual group membership may only be revealed after data collection. In this work, we study multi-source data collection under a fixed budget, focusing on the estimation of population means and group-conditional means. We show that naive data collection strategies (e.g. attempting to “match” the target distribution) or relying on standard estimators (e.g. sample mean) can be highly suboptimal. Instead, we develop a sampling plan which maximizes the effective sample size—the total sample size divided by $D_{\chi^2}(q\mid\mid\overline{p}) + 1$, where $q$ is the target distribution, $\overline{p}$ is the aggregated source distribution, and $D_{\chi^2}$ is the $\chi^2$-divergence. We pair this sampling plan with a classical post-stratified estimator, which is able to leverage large but systematically biased datasets, and upper bound its risk. We provide lower bounds with exactly matching leading terms, proving that our approach achieves the budgeted minimax-optimal risk up to additive lower order terms. Our techniques also extend to prediction problems when minimizing the excess risk. In this setting, we pair the effective-sample-size-maximizing sampling plan with a weighted empirical risk minimzer and upper bound its risk. A key contribution to this end is the development of a general information-theoretic lower bound framework for prediction problems under possibly differing source and target distributions, which may be of independent interest outside of this work. We apply this framework to the case of binary classification to establish a lower bound which matches the upper bound of our proposed approach up to a $\sqrt{K/q_{\min}}$-factor, where $K$ is the number of groups and $q_{\min}$ is the smallest group identity probability under the target distribution $q\,$. Our framework enables us to respect the information geometry of the problem via dependence on $D_{\chi^2}(q\mid\mid\overline{p})$ that matches the upper bound, which was not possible with existing techniques.

We study a collaborative learning problem where $m$ agents aim to estimate a vector $\mu =(\mu_1,\ldots,\mu_d)\in \mathbb{R}^d$ by sampling from associated univariate normal distributions $(\mathcal{N}(\mu_k, \sigma^2))_{k\in[d]}$. Agent $i$ incurs a cost $c_{i,k}$ to sample from $\mathcal{N}(\mu_k, \sigma^2)$. Instead of working independently, agents can exchange data, collecting cheaper samples and sharing them in return for costly data, thereby reducing both costs and estimation error. We design a mechanism to facilitate such collaboration, while addressing two key challenges: ensuring individually rational (IR) and fair outcomes so all agents benefit, and preventing strategic behavior (e.g. non-collection, data fabrication) to avoid socially undesirable outcomes. We design a mechanism and an associated Nash equilibrium (NE) which minimizes the social penalty-sum of agents’ estimation errors and collection costs-while being IR for all agents. We achieve a $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{m})$-approximation to the minimum social penalty in the worst case and an $\mathcal{O}(1)$-approximation under favorable conditions. Additionally, we establish three hardness results: no nontrivial mechanism guarantees (i) a dominant strategy equilibrium where agents report truthfully, (ii) is IR for every strategy profile of other agents, (iii) or avoids a worst-case $\Omega(\sqrt{m})$ price of stability in any NE. Finally, by integrating concepts from axiomatic bargaining, we demonstrate that our mechanism supports fairer outcomes than one which minimizes social penalty.

Modern data marketplaces and data sharing consortia increasingly rely on incentive mechanisms to encourage agents to contribute data. However, schemes that reward agents based on the quantity of submitted data are vulnerable to manipulation, as agents may submit fabricated or low-quality data to inflate their rewards. Prior work has proposed comparing each agent’s data against others’ to promote honesty: when others contribute genuine data, the best way to minimize discrepancy is to do the same. Yet prior implementations of this idea rely on very strong assumptions about the data distribution (e.g. Gaussian), limiting their applicability. In this work, we develop reward mechanisms based on a novel, two-sample test statistic inspired by the Cramér-von Mises statistic. Our methods strictly incentivize agents to submit more genuine data, while disincentivizing data fabrication and other types of untruthful reporting. We establish that truthful reporting constitutes a (possibly approximate) Nash equilibrium in both Bayesian and prior-agnostic settings. We theoretically instantiate our method in two canonical data sharing problems and show that it relaxes key assumptions made by prior work. Empirically, we demonstrate that our mechanism incentivizes truthful data sharing via simulations and on real-world language and image data.

We consider the problem of identifying the best arm in a multi-armed bandit model. Despite a wealth of literature in the traditional fixed budget and fixed confidence regimes of the best arm identification problem, it still remains a mystery to most practitioners as to how to choose an approach and corresponding budget or confidence parameter. We propose a new formalism to avoid this dilemma altogether by minimizing a risk functional which explicitly balances the performance of the recommended arm and the cost incurred by learning this arm. In this framework, a cost is incurred for each observation during the sampling phase, and upon recommending an arm, a performance penalty is incurred for identifying a suboptimal arm. The learner's goal is to minimize the sum of the penalty and cost. This new regime mirrors the priorities of many practitioners, e.g. maximizing profit in an A/B testing framework, better than classical fixed budget or confidence settings. We derive theoretical lower bounds for the risk of each of two choices for the performance penalty, the probability of misidentification and the simple regret, and propose an algorithm called DBCARE to match these lower bounds up to polylog factors on nearly all problem instances. We then demonstrate the performance of DBCARE on a number of simulated models, comparing to fixed budget and confidence algorithms to show the shortfalls of existing BAI paradigms on this problem.

We study a multi-round mechanism design problem, where we interact with a set of agents over a sequence of rounds. We wish to design an incentive-compatible (IC) online learning scheme to maximize an application-specific objective within a given class of mechanisms, without prior knowledge of the agents' type distributions. Even if each mechanism in this class is IC in a single round, if an algorithm naively chooses from this class on each round, the entire learning process may not be IC against non-myopic buyers who appear over multiple rounds. On each round, our method randomly chooses between the recommendation of a weakly differentially private online learning algorithm (e.g., Hedge), and a commitment mechanism which penalizes non-truthful behavior. Our method is IC and achieves $O(T^{\frac{1+h}{2}})$ regret for the application-specific objective in an adversarial setting, where $h$ quantifies the long-sightedness of the agents. When compared to prior work, our approach is conceptually simpler, it applies to general mechanism design problems (beyond auctions), and its regret scales gracefully with the size of the mechanism class.

We study a data pricing problem, where a seller has access to $N$ homogeneous data points (e.g. drawn i.i.d. from some distribution). There are $m$ types of buyers in the market, where buyers of the same type $i$ have the same valuation curve $v_i:[N]\rightarrow [0,1]$, where $v_i(n)$ is the value for having $n$ data points. *A priori*, the seller is unaware of the distribution of buyers, but can repeat the market for $T$ rounds so as to learn the revenue-optimal pricing curve $p:[N] \rightarrow [0, 1]$. To solve this online learning problem, we first develop novel discretization schemes to approximate any pricing curve. When compared to prior work, the size of our discretization schemes scales gracefully with the approximation parameter, which translates to better regret in online learning. Under assumptions like smoothness and diminishing returns which are satisfied by data, the discretization size can be reduced further. We then turn to the online learning problem, both in the stochastic and adversarial settings. On each round, the seller chooses an *anonymous* pricing curve $p_t$. A new buyer appears and may choose to purchase some amount of data. She then reveals her type *only if* she makes a purchase. Our online algorithms build on classical algorithms such as UCB and FTPL, but require novel ideas to account for the asymmetric nature of this feedback and to deal with the vastness of the space of pricing curves. Using the improved discretization schemes previously developed, we are able to achieve $\widetilde{O}(m\sqrt{T})$ regret in the stochastic setting and $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(m^{3/2}\sqrt{T})$ regret in the adversarial setting.

We study a sequential profit-maximization problem, optimizing for both price and ancillary variables like marketing expenditures. Specifically, we aim to maximize profit over an arbitrary sequence of multiple demand curves, each dependent on a distinct ancillary variable, but sharing the same price. A prototypical example is targeted marketing, where a firm (seller) wishes to sell a product over multiple markets. The firm may invest different marketing expenditures for different markets to optimize customer acquisition, but must maintain the same price across all markets. Moreover, markets may have heterogeneous demand curves, each responding to prices and marketing expenditures differently. The firm's objective is to maximize its gross profit, the total revenue minus marketing costs.

We study actively labeling streaming data, where an active learner is faced with a stream of data points and must carefully choose which of these points to label via an expensive experiment. Such problems frequently arise in applications such as healthcare and astronomy. We first study a setting when the data’s inputs belong to one of K discrete distributions and formalize this problem via a loss that captures the labeling cost and the prediction error. When the labeling cost is B, our algorithm, which chooses to label a point if the uncertainty is larger than a time and cost dependent threshold, achieves a worst-case upper bound of $\tilde O(B^{\frac{1}{3}} K^{\frac{1}{3}} T^{\frac{2}{3}})$ on the loss after T rounds. We also provide a more nuanced upper bound which demonstrates that the algorithm can adapt to the arrival pattern, and achieves better performance when the arrival pattern is more favorable. We complement both upper bounds with matching lower bounds. We next study this problem when the inputs belong to a continuous domain and the output of the experiment is a smooth function with bounded RKHS norm. After T rounds in d dimensions, we show that the loss is bounded by $\tilde O(B^{\frac{1}{d+3}} T^{\frac{d+2}{d+3}})$ in an RKHS with a squared exponential kernel and by $\tilde O(B^{\frac{1}{2d+3}} T^{\frac{2d+2}{2d+3}})$ in an RKHS with a Matérn kernel. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our method outperforms other baselines in several synthetic experiments and two real experiments in medicine and astronomy.

We study collaborative normal mean estimation, where $m$ strategic agents collect i.i.d samples from a normal distribution $\mathcal{N}(\mu, \sigma^2)$ at a cost. They all wish to estimate the mean $\mu$. By sharing data with each other, agents can obtain better estimates while keeping the cost of data collection small. To facilitate this collaboration, we wish to design mechanisms that encourage agents to collect a sufficient amount of data and share it truthfully, so that they are all better off than working alone. In naive mechanisms, such as simply pooling and sharing all the data, an individual agent might find it beneficial to under-collect and/or fabricate data, which can lead to poor social outcomes. We design a novel mechanism that overcomes these challenges via two key techniques: first, when sharing the others' data with an agent, the mechanism corrupts this dataset proportional to how much the data reported by the agent differs from the others; second, we design minimax optimal estimators for the corrupted dataset. Our mechanism, which is Nash incentive compatible and individually rational, achieves a social penalty (sum of all agents' estimation errors and data collection costs) that is at most a factor 2 of the global minimum. When applied to high dimensional (non-Gaussian) distributions with bounded variance, this mechanism retains these three properties, but with slightly weaker results. Finally, in two special cases where we restrict the strategy space of the agents, we design mechanisms that essentially achieve the global minimum.

In online marketplaces, customers have access to hundreds of reviews for a single product. Buyers often use reviews from other customers that share their type---such as height for clothing, skin type for skincare products, and location for outdoor furniture---to estimate their values, which they may not know a priori. Customers with few relevant reviews may hesitate to make a purchase except at a low price, so for the seller, there is a tension between setting high prices and ensuring that there are enough reviews so that buyers can confidently estimate their values. Simultaneously, sellers may use reviews to gauge the demand for items they wish to sell.

We study a multi-round welfare-maximising mechanism design problem in instances where agents do not know their values. On each round, a mechanism first assigns an allocation to a set of agents and charges them a price; at the end of the round, the agents provide (stochastic) feedback to the mechanism for the allocation they received. This setting is motivated by applications in cloud markets and online advertising where an agent may know her value for an allocation only after experiencing it. Therefore, the mechanism needs to explore different allocations for each agent so that it can learn their values, while simultaneously attempting to find the socially optimal set of allocations. Our focus is on truthful and individually rational mechanisms which imitate the classical VCG mechanism in the long run. To that end, we first define three notions of regret for the welfare, the individual utilities of each agent and that of the mechanism. We show that these three terms are interdependent via an $\Omega(T^{\frac{2}{3}})$ lower bound for the maximum of these three terms after $T$ rounds of allocations, and describe an algorithm which essentially achieves this rate. Our framework also provides flexibility to control the pricing scheme so as to trade-off between the agent and seller regrets. Next, we define asymptotic variants for the truthfulness and individual rationality requirements and provide asymptotic rates to quantify the degree to which both properties are satisfied by the proposed algorithm.

The sharing of scarce resources among multiple rational agents is one of the classical problems in economics. In exchange economies, which are used to model such situations, agents begin with an initial endowment of resources and exchange them in a way that is mutually beneficial until they reach a competitive equilibrium (CE). The allocations at a CE are Pareto efficient and fair. Consequently, they are used widely in designing mechanisms for fair division. However, computing CEs requires the knowledge of agent preferences which are unknown in several applications of interest. In this work, we explore a new online learning mechanism, which, on each round, allocates resources to the agents and collects stochastic feedback on their experience in using that allocation. Its goal is to learn the agent utilities via this feedback and imitate the allocations at a CE in the long run. We quantify CE behavior via two losses and propose a randomized algorithm which achieves sublinear loss under a parametric class of utilities. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this mechanism through numerical simulations.

Hyperparameter tuning is a necessary step in training and deploying machine learning models. Most prior work on hyperparameter tuning has studied methods for maximizing model accuracy under a time constraint, assuming a fixed cluster size. While this is appropriate in data center environments, the increased deployment of machine learning workloads in cloud settings necessitates studying hyperparameter tuning with an elastic cluster size and time and monetary budgets. While recent work has leveraged the elasticity of the cloud to minimize the execution cost of a pre-determined hyperparameter tuning job originally designed for fixed-cluster sizes, they do not aim to maximize accuracy.

Hyperparameter tuning is essential to achieving state-of-the-art accuracy in machine learning (ML), but requires substantial compute resources to perform. Existing systems primarily focus on effectively allocating resources for a hyperparameter tuning job under fixed resource constraints. We show that the available parallelism in such jobs changes dynamically over the course of execution and, therefore, presents an opportunity to leverage the elasticity of the cloud.

We study exploration in stochastic multi-armed bandits when we have access to a divisible resource that can be allocated in varying amounts to arm pulls. We focus in particular on the allocation of distributed computing resources, where we may obtain results faster by allocating more resources per pull, but might have reduced throughput due to nonlinear scaling. For example, in simulation-based scientific studies, an expensive simulation can be sped up by running it on multiple cores. This speed-up however, is partly offset by the communication among cores, which results in lower throughput than if fewer cores were allocated to run more trials in parallel. In this paper, we explore these trade-offs in two settings. First, in a fixed confidence setting, we need to find the best arm with a given target success probability as quickly as possible. We propose an algorithm which trades off between information accumulation and throughput and show that the time taken can be upper bounded by the solution of a dynamic program whose inputs are the gaps between the sub-optimal and optimal arms. We also prove a matching hardness result. Second, we present an algorithm for a fixed deadline setting, where we are given a time deadline and need to maximize the probability of finding the best arm. We corroborate our theoretical insights with simulation experiments that show that the algorithms consistently match or outperform baseline algorithms on a variety of problem instances.

In applications such as molecule design or drug discovery, it is desirable to have an algorithm which recommends new candidate molecules based on the results of past tests. These molecules first need to be synthesized and then tested for objective properties. We describe ChemBO, a Bayesian optimization framework for generating and optimizing organic molecules for desired molecular properties. While most existing data-driven methods for this problem do not account for sample efficiency or fail to enforce realistic constraints on synthesizability, our approach explores synthesis graphs in a sample-efficient way and produces synthesizable candidates. We implement ChemBO as a Gaussian process model and explore existing molecular kernels for it. Moreover, we propose a novel optimal-transport based distance and kernel that accounts for graphical information explicitly. In our experiments, we demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on several molecular optimization problems.

Bayesian Optimisation (BO) refers to a suite of techniques for global optimisation of expensive black box functions, which use introspective Bayesian models of the function to efficiently search for the optimum. While BO has been applied successfully in many applications, modern optimisation tasks usher in new challenges where conventional methods fail spectacularly. In this work, we present Dragonfly, an open source Python library for scalable and robust BO. Dragonfly incorporates multiple recently developed methods that allow BO to be applied in challenging real world settings; these include better methods for handling higher dimensional domains, methods for handling multi-fidelity evaluations when cheap approximations of an expensive function are available, methods for optimising over structured combinatorial spaces, such as the space of neural network architectures, and methods for handling parallel evaluations. Additionally, we develop new methodological improvements in BO for selecting the Bayesian model, selecting the acquisition function, and optimising over complex domains with different variable types and additional constraints. We compare Dragonfly to a suite of other packages and algorithms for global optimisation and demonstrate that when the above methods are integrated, they enable significant improvements in the performance of BO. The Dragonfly library is available at dragonfly.github.io.

We study the problem of black-box optimization of a noisy function in the presence of low-cost approximations or fidelities, which is motivated by problems like hyper-parameter tuning. In hyper-parameter tuning evaluating the black-box function at a point involves training a learning algorithm on a large data-set at a particular hyper-parameter and evaluating the validation error. Even a single such evaluation can be prohibitively expensive. Therefore, it is beneficial to use low-cost approximations, like training the learning algorithm on a sub-sampled version of the whole data-set. These low-cost approximations/fidelities can however provide a biased and noisy estimate of the function value. In this work, we combine structured state-space exploration through hierarchical partitioning with querying these partitions at multiple fidelities, and develop a multi-fidelity bandit based tree-search algorithm for noisy black-box optimization. We derive simple regret guarantees for our algorithm and validate its performance on real and synthetic datasets.

Bayesian methods for adaptive decision-making, such as Bayesian optimisation, active learning, and active search have seen great success in relevant applications. However, real world data collection tasks are more broad and complex, as we may need to achieve a combination of the above goals and/or application specific goals. In such scenarios, specialised methods have limited applicability. In this work, we design a new myopic strategy for a wide class of adaptive design of experiment (DOE) problems, where we wish to collect data in order to fulfil a given goal. Our approach, Myopic Posterior Sampling (MPS), which is inspired by the classical posterior sampling algorithm for multi-armed bandits, enables us to address a broad suite of DOE tasks where a practitioner may incorporate domain expertise about the system and specify her desired goal via a reward function. Empirically, this general-purpose strategy is competitive with more specialised methods in a wide array of synthetic and real world DOE tasks. More importantly, it enables addressing complex DOE goals where no existing method seems applicable. On the theoretical side, we leverage ideas from adaptive submodularity and reinforcement learning to derive conditions under which MPS achieves sublinear regret against natural benchmark policies.

In black-box optimization, an agent repeatedly chooses a configuration to test, so as to find an optimal configuration. In many practical problems of interest, one would like to optimize several systems, or tasks'', simultaneously; however, in most of these scenarios the current task is determined by nature. In this work, we explore theoffline'' case in which one is able to bypass nature and choose the next task to evaluate (e.g. via a simulator). Because some tasks may be easier to optimize and others may be more critical, it is crucial to leverage algorithms that not only consider which configurations to try next, but also which tasks to make evaluations for. In this work, we describe a theoretically grounded Bayesian optimization method to tackle this problem. We also demonstrate that if the model of the reward structure does a poor job of capturing variation in difficulty between tasks, then algorithms that actively pick tasks for evaluation may end up doing more harm than good. Following this, we show how our approach can be used for real world applications in science and engineering, including optimizing tokamak controls for nuclear fusion.

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the maximisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function f. Traditional settings for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to f may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of f in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a multi-fidelity bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop MF-GP-UCB, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour and achieves better bounds on the regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. Empirically, MF-GP-UCB outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

We design and analyse variations of the classical Thompson sampling (TS) procedure for Bayesian optimisation (BO) in settings where function evaluations are expensive but can be performed in parallel. Our theoretical analysis shows that a direct application of the sequential Thompson sampling algorithm in either synchronous or asynchronous parallel settings yields a surprisingly powerful result: making $n$ evaluations distributed among $M$ workers is essentially equivalent to performing $n$ evaluations in sequence. Further, by modelling the time taken to complete a function evaluation, we show that, under a time constraint, asynchronous parallel TS achieves asymptotically lower regret than both the synchronous and sequential versions. These results are complemented by an experimental analysis, showing that asynchronous TS outperforms a suite of existing parallel BO algorithms in simulations and in an application involving tuning hyper-parameters of a convolutional neural network. In addition to these, the proposed procedure is conceptually much simpler than existing work for parallel BO.

Motivated by settings such as hyper-parameter tuning and physical simulations, we consider the problem of black-box optimization of a function. Multi-fidelity techniques have become popular for applications where exact function evaluations are expensive, but coarse (biased) approximations are available at much lower cost. A canonical example is that of hyper-parameter selection in a learning algorithm. The learning algorithm can be trained for fewer iterations – this results in a lower cost, but its validation error is only coarsely indicative of the same if the algorithm had been trained till completion. We incorporate the multi-fidelity setup into the powerful framework of black-box optimization through hierarchical partitioning. We develop tree-search based multi-fidelity algorithms with theoretical guarantees on simple regret. We finally demonstrate the performance gains of our algorithms on both real and synthetic datasets.

Bayesian Optimisation (BO) refers to a class of methods for global optimisation of a function f which is only accessible via point evaluations. It is typically used in settings where f is expensive to evaluate. A common use case for BO in machine learning is model selection, where it is not possible to analytically model the generalisation performance of a statistical model, and we resort to noisy and expensive training and validation procedures to choose the best model. Conventional BO methods have focused on Euclidean and categorical domains, which, in the context of model selection, only permits tuning scalar hyper-parameters of machine learning algorithms. However, with the surge of interest in deep learning, there is an increasing demand to tune neural network architectures. In this work, we develop NASBOT, a Gaussian process based BO framework for neural architecture search. To accomplish this, we develop a distance metric in the space of neural network architectures which can be computed efficiently via an optimal transport program. This distance might be of independent interest to the deep learning community as it may find applications outside of BO. We demonstrate that NASBOT outperforms other alternatives for architecture search in several cross validation based model selection tasks on multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks.

Bandit methods for black-box optimisation, such as Bayesian optimisation, are used in a variety of applications including hyper-parameter tuning and experiment design. Recently, multi-fidelity methods have garnered considerable attention since function evaluations have become increasingly expensive in such applications. Multi-fidelity methods use cheap approximations to the function of interest to speed up the overall optimisation process. However, most multi-fidelity methods assume only a finite number of approximations. On the other hand, in many practical applications, a continuous spectrum of approximations might be available. For instance, when tuning an expensive neural network, one might choose to approximate the cross validation performance using less data $N$ and/or few training iterations $T$. Here, the approximations are best viewed as arising out of a continuous two dimensional space $(N,T)$. In this work, we develop a Bayesian optimisation method, BOCA, for this setting. We characterise its theoretical properties and show that it achieves better regret than than strategies which ignore the approximations. BOCA outperforms several other baselines in synthetic and real experiments.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is commonly used to optimize blackbox objective functions which are expensive to evaluate. A common approach is based on using Gaussian Process (GP) to model the objective function. Applying GP to higher dimensional settings is generally difficult due to the curse of dimensionality for nonparametric regression. Existing works makes strong assumptions such as the function is low-dimensional embedding (Wang et al., 2013) or is axis-aligned additive (Kandasamy et al., 2015). In this pa- per, we generalize the existing assumption to a projected-additive assumption. Our generalization provides the benefits of i) greatly increasing the space of functions that can be modeled by our approach, which covers the previous works (Wang et al., 2013; Kandasamy et al., 2015) as special cases, and ii) efficiently handling the learning in a larger model space. We prove that the regret for projected-additive functions has only linear dependence on the number of dimensions in this general setting. Directly using projected-additive GP (Gilboa et al., 2013) to BO results in a non-box constraint, which is not easy to optimize. We tackle this problem by proposing a restricted-projection-pursuit GP for BO. We conduct experiments on synthetic examples and scientific and hyper-parameter tuning tasks in many cases. Our method outperforms existing approaches even when the function does not meet the projected additive assumption. Last, we study the validity of the additive and projected-additive assumption in practice.

High dimensional nonparametric regression is an inherently difficult problem with known lower bounds depending exponentially in dimension. A popular strategy to alleviate this curse of dimensionality has been to use additive models of \emphfirst order, which model the regression function as a sum of independent functions on each dimension. Though useful in controlling the variance of the estimate, such models are often too restrictive in practical settings. Between non-additive models which often have large variance and first order additive models which have large bias, there has been little work to exploit the trade-off in the middle via additive models of intermediate order. In this work, we propose salsa, which bridges this gap by allowing interactions between variables, but controls model capacity by limiting the order of interactions. salsas minimises the residual sum of squares with squared RKHS norm penalties. Algorithmically, it can be viewed as Kernel Ridge Regression with an additive kernel. When the regression function is additive, the excess risk is only polynomial in dimension. Using the Girard-Newton formulae, we efficiently sum over a combinatorial number of terms in the additive expansion. Via a comparison on 15 real datasets, we show that our method is competitive against 21 other alternatives.

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or belongs to a parametric family. In this paper, we study the estimation of an $m$-state hidden Markov model (HMM) with only smoothness assumptions, such as H\"olderian conditions, on the emission densities. By leveraging some recent advances in continuous linear algebra and numerical analysis, we develop a computationally efficient spectral algorithm for learning nonparametric HMMs. Our technique is based on computing an SVD on nonparametric estimates of density functions by viewing them as \emph{continuous matrices}. We derive sample complexity bounds via concentration results for nonparametric density estimation and novel perturbation theory results for continuous matrices. We implement our method using Chebyshev polynomial approximations. Our method is competitive with other baselines on synthetic and real problems and is also very computationally efficient.

In many scientific and engineering applications, we are tasked with the optimisation of an expensive to evaluate black box function $\func$. Traditional methods for this problem assume just the availability of this single function. However, in many cases, cheap approximations to $\func$ may be obtainable. For example, the expensive real world behaviour of a robot can be approximated by a cheap computer simulation. We can use these approximations to eliminate low function value regions cheaply and use the expensive evaluations of $\func$ in a small but promising region and speedily identify the optimum. We formalise this task as a \emph{multi-fidelity} bandit problem where the target function and its approximations are sampled from a Gaussian process. We develop \mfgpucb, a novel method based on upper confidence bound techniques. In our theoretical analysis we demonstrate that it exhibits precisely the above behaviour, and achieves better regret than strategies which ignore multi-fidelity information. \mfgpucbs outperforms such naive strategies and other multi-fidelity methods on several synthetic and real experiments.

We study a variant of the classical stochastic $K$-armed bandit where observing the outcome of each arm is expensive, but cheap approximations to this outcome are available. For example, in online advertising the performance of an ad can be approximated by displaying it for shorter time periods or to narrower audiences. We formalise this task as a \emph{multi-fidelity} bandit, where, at each time step, the forecaster may choose to play an arm at any one of $M$ fidelities. The highest fidelity (desired outcome) expends cost $\costM$. The $m$\ssth fidelity (an approximation) expends $\costm < \costM$ and returns a biased estimate of the highest fidelity. We develop \mfucb, a novel upper confidence bound procedure for this setting and prove that it naturally adapts to the sequence of available approximations and costs thus attaining better regret than naive strategies which ignore the approximations. For instance, in the above online advertising example, \mfucbs would use the lower fidelities to quickly eliminate suboptimal ads and reserve the larger expensive experiments on a small set of promising candidates. We complement this result with a lower bound and show that \mfucbs is nearly optimal under certain conditions.

We give a comprehensive theoretical characterization of a nonparametric estimator for the L_2^2 divergence between two continuous distributions. We first bound the rate of convergence of our estimator, showing that it is \sqrtn-consistent provided the densities are sufficiently smooth. In this smooth regime, we then show that our estimator is asymptotically normal, construct asymptotic confidence intervals, and establish a Berry-Esséen style inequality characterizing the rate of convergence to normality. We also show that this estimator is minimax optimal.

Bayesian Optimisation (BO) is a technique used in optimising a D-dimensional function which is typically expensive to evaluate. While there have been many successes for BO in low dimensions, scaling it to high dimensions has been notoriously difficult. Existing literature on the topic are under very restrictive settings. In this paper, we identify two key challenges in this endeavour. We tackle these challenges by assuming an additive structure for the function. This setting is substantially more expressive and contains a richer class of functions than previous work. We prove that, for additive functions the regret has only linear dependence on D even though the function depends on all D dimensions. We also demonstrate several other statistical and computational benefits in our framework. Via synthetic examples, a scientific simulation and a face detection problem we demonstrate that our method outperforms naive BO on additive functions and on several examples where the function is not additive.

We propose and analyse estimators for statistical functionals of one or moredistributions under nonparametric assumptions.Our estimators are derived from the von Mises expansion andare based on the theory of influence functions, which appearin the semiparametric statistics literature.We show that estimators based either on data-splitting or a leave-one-out techniqueenjoy fast rates of convergence and other favorable theoretical properties.We apply this framework to derive estimators for several popular informationtheoretic quantities, and via empirical evaluation, show the advantage of thisapproach over existing estimators.

We consider nonparametric estimation of L_2, Renyi-αand Tsallis-αdivergences between continuous distributions. Our approach is to construct estimators for particular integral functionals of two densities and translate them into divergence estimators. For the integral functionals, our estimators are based on corrections of a preliminary plug-in estimator. We show that these estimators achieve the parametric convergence rate of n^-1/2 when the densities’ smoothness, s, are both at least d/4 where d is the dimension. We also derive minimax lower bounds for this problem which confirm that s > d/4 is necessary to achieve the n^-1/2 rate of convergence. We validate our theoretical guarantees with a number of simulations.

This paper describes Latent Beta Topographic Mapping (LBTM), a generative probability model for non linear dimensionality reduction and density estimation. LBTM is based on Generative Topographic Mapping (GTM) and hence inherits its ability to map complex non linear manifolds. However, the GTM is limited in its ability to reliably estimate sophisticated densities on the manifold. This paper explores the possibilities of learning a probability distribution for the data on the lower dimensional latent space. Learning a distribution helps not only in density estimation but also in maintaining topographic structure. In addition, LBTM provides useful methods for sampling, inference and visualization of high dimensional data. Experimental results indicate that LBTM can reliably learn the structure and distribution of the data and is competitive with existing methods for dimensionality reduction and density estimation.