Varying coefficient models (VCMs) are widely used for estimating nonlinear regression functions for functional data. Their Bayesian variants using Gaussian process priors on the functional coefficients, however, have received limited attention in massive data applications, mainly due to the prohibitively slow posterior computations using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. We address this problem using a divide-and-conquer Bayesian approach. We first create a large number of data subsamples with much smaller sizes. Then, we formulate the VCM as a linear mixed-effects model and develop a data augmentation algorithm for obtaining MCMC draws on all the subsets in parallel. Finally, we aggregate the MCMC-based estimates of subset posteriors into a single Aggregated Monte Carlo (AMC) posterior, which is used as a computationally efficient alternative to the true posterior distribution. Theoretically, we derive minimax optimal posterior convergence rates for the AMC posteriors of both the varying coefficients and the mean regression function. We provide quantification on the orders of subset sample sizes and the number of subsets. The empirical results show that the combination schemes that satisfy our theoretical assumptions, including the AMC posterior, have better estimation performance than their main competitors across diverse simulations and in a real data analysis.

Divide-and-conquer based methods for Bayesian inference provide a general approach for tractable posterior inference when the sample size is large. These methods divide the data into smaller subsets, sample from the posterior distribution of parameters in parallel on all the subsets, and combine posterior samples from all the subsets to approximate the full data posterior distribution. The smaller size of any subset compared to the full data implies that posterior sampling on any subset is computationally more efficient than sampling from the true posterior distribution. Since the combination step takes negligible time relative to sampling, posterior computations can be scaled to massive data by dividing the full data into sufficiently large number of data subsets. One such approach relies on the geometry of posterior distributions estimated across different subsets and combines them through their barycenter in a Wasserstein space of probability measures. We provide theoretical guarantees on the accuracy of approximation that are valid in many applications. We show that the geometric method approximates the full data posterior distribution better than its competitors across diverse simulations and reproduces known results when applied to a movie ratings database.

We propose a novel approach to Bayesian analysis that is provably robust to outliers in the data and often has computational advantages over standard methods. Our technique is based on splitting the data into non-overlapping subgroups, evaluating the posterior distribution given each independent subgroup, and then combining the resulting measures. The main novelty of our approach is the proposed aggregation step, which is based on the evaluation of a median in the space of probability measures equipped with a suitable collection of distances that can be quickly and efficiently evaluated in practice. We present both theoretical and numerical evidence illustrating the improvements achieved by our method.

The promise of Bayesian methods for big data sets has not fully been realized due to the lack of scalable computational algorithms. For massive data, it is necessary to store and process subsets on different machines in a distributed manner. We propose a simple, general, and highly efficient approach, which first runs a posterior sampling algorithm in parallel on different machines for subsets of a large data set. To combine these subset posteriors, we calculate the Wasserstein barycenter via a highly efficient linear program. The resulting estimate for the Wasserstein posterior (WASP) has an atomic form, facilitating straightforward estimation of posterior summaries of functionals of interest. The WASP approach allows posterior sampling algorithms for smaller data sets to be trivially scaled to huge data. We provide theoretical justification in terms of posterior consistency and algorithm efficiency. Examples are provided in complex settings including Gaussian process regression and nonparametric Bayes mixture models.

Many Bayesian learning methods for massive data benefit from working with small subsets of observations. In particular, significant progress has been made in scalable Bayesian learning via stochastic approximation. However, Bayesian learning methods in distributed computing environments are often problem- or distribution-specific and use ad hoc techniques. We propose a novel general approach to Bayesian inference that is scalable and robust to corruption in the data. Our technique is based on the idea of splitting the data into several non-overlapping subgroups, evaluating the posterior distribution given each independent subgroup, and then combining the results. The main novelty is the proposed aggregation step which is based on finding the geometric median of posterior distributions. We present both theoretical and numerical results illustrating the advantages of our approach.