In this work, we investigate the player behavior of an NFT-based blockchain game from a perspective of attrition with the goal of providing insights as to how players interact with the game over a long period of time and establishing potential avenues for future research in building prediction models. To this end, we analyze the retention behavior over time and profile the players to gain insights about how they interact with the game.

Game companies avoid sharing their game data with external researchers. Only a few research groups have been granted limited access to game data so far. The reluctance of these companies to make data publicly available limits the wide use and development of data mining techniques and artificial intelligence research specific to the game industry. In this paper, we developed and implemented an international competition on game data mining using commercial game log data from one of the major game companies in South Korea: NCSOFT. Our approach enabled researchers to develop and apply state-of-the-art data mining techniques to game log data by making the data open. For the competition, data were collected from Blade & Soul, an action role-playing game, from NCSOFT. The data comprised approximately 100 GB of game logs from 10 000 players. The main aim of the competition was to predict whether a player would churn and when the player would churn during two periods between which the business model was changed to a free-to-play model from a monthly subscription. The results of the competition revealed that highly ranked competitors used deep learning, tree boosting, and linear regression.

In order to facilitate better estimations on coronary artery disease conditions of a patient, we aim to predict the number of Angioplasty (a coronary artery procedure) by taking into account all the information from his/her Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. For this purpose, two exponential family members—multinomial distribution and Poisson distribution models—are considered, which treat the target variable as categorical-valued and count-valued respectively. From the perspective of exponential family, we derive the functional gradient boosting approach for these two distributions and analyze their assumptions with real EHR data. Our empirical results show that Poisson models appear to be more faithful for modeling the number of this procedure.

The prediction of both, vehicular traffic and communication connectivity are important research topics. In this paper, we propose the usage of innovative machine learning approaches for these objectives. For this purpose, Poisson Dependency Networks (PDNs) are introduced to enhance the prediction quality of vehicular traffic flows. The machine learning model is fitted based on empirical vehicular traffic data. The results show that PDNs enable a significantly better short-term prediction in comparison to a prediction based on the physics of traffic. To combine vehicular traffic with cellular communication networks, a correlation between connectivity indicators and vehicular traffic flow is shown based on measurement results. This relationship is leveraged by means of Poisson regression trees in both directions, and hence, enabling the prediction of both types of network utilization.

By handling whole sets of indistinguishable objects together, lifted belief propagation approaches have rendered large, previously intractable, probabilistic inference problems quickly solvable. In this paper, we show that Kumar and Zilberstein's likelihood maximization (LM) approach to MAP inference is liftable, too, and actually provides additional structure for optimization. Specifically, it has been recognized that some pseudo marginals may converge quickly, turning intuitively into pseudo evidence. This additional evidence typically changes the structure of the lifted network: it may expand or reduce it. The current lifted network, however, can be viewed as an upper bound on the size of the lifted network required to finish likelihood maximization. Consequently, we re-lift the network only if the pseudo evidence yields a reduced network, which can efficiently be computed on the current lifted network. Our experimental results on Ising models, image segmentation and relational entity resolution demonstrate that this bootstrapped LM via "reduce and re-lift" finds MAP assignments comparable to those found by the original LM approach, but in a fraction of the time.

Lifted inference, handling whole sets of indistinguishable objects together, is critical to the effective application of probabilistic relational models to realistic real world tasks. Recently, lifted belief propagation (LBP) has been proposed as an efficient approximate solution of this inference problem. It runs a modified BP on a lifted network where nodes have been grouped together if they have — roughly speaking — identical computation trees, the tree-structured “unrolling” of the underlying graph rooted at the nodes. In many situations, this purely syntactic criterion is too pessimistic: message errors decay along paths. Intuitively, for a long chain graph with weak edge potentials, distant nodes will send and receive identical messages yet their computation trees are quite different. To overcome this, we propose iLBP, a novel, easy-to-implement, informed LBP approach that interleaves lifting and modified BP iterations. In turn, we can efficiently monitor the true BP messages sent and received in each iteration and group nodes accordingly. As our experiments show, iLBP can yield significantly faster more lifted network while not degrading performance. Above all, we show that iLBP is faster than BP when solving the problem of distributing data to a large network, an important real-world application where BP is faster than uninformed LBP.