Intelligence relies on an agent's knowledge of what it does not know. This capability can be assessed based on the quality of joint predictions of labels across multiple inputs. In principle, ensemble-based approaches can produce effective joint predictions, but the computational costs of large ensembles become prohibitive. We introduce the epinet: an architecture that can supplement any conventional neural network, including large pretrained models, and can be trained with modest incremental computation to estimate uncertainty. With an epinet, conventional neural networks outperform very large ensembles, consisting of hundreds or more particles, with orders of magnitude less computation. The epinet does not fit the traditional framework of Bayesian neural networks. To accommodate development of approaches beyond BNNs, such as the epinet, we introduce the epistemic neural network (ENN) as a general interface for models that produce joint predictions.

Thompson sampling (TS) is a popular heuristic for action selection, but it requires sampling from a posterior distribution. Unfortunately, this can become computationally intractable in complex environments, such as those modeled using neural networks. Approximate posterior samples can produce effective actions, but only if they reasonably approximate joint predictive distributions of outputs across inputs. Notably, accuracy of marginal predictive distributions does not suffice. Epistemic neural networks (ENNs) are designed to produce accurate joint predictive distributions. We compare a range of ENNs through computational experiments that assess their performance in approximating TS across bandit and reinforcement learning environments. The results indicate that ENNs serve this purpose well and illustrate how the quality of joint predictive distributions drives performance. Further, we demonstrate that the epinet – a small additive network that estimates uncertainty – matches the performance of large ensembles at orders of magnitude lower computational cost. This enables effective application of TS with computation that scales gracefully to complex environments.

Predictive distributions quantify uncertainties ignored by point estimates. This paper introduces The Neural Testbed: an open source benchmark for controlled and principled evaluation of agents that generate such predictions. Crucially, the testbed assesses agents not only on the quality of their marginal predictions per input, but also on their joint predictions across many inputs. We evaluate a range of agents using a simple neural network data generating process.Our results indicate that some popular Bayesian deep learning agents do not fare well with joint predictions, even when they can produce accurate marginal predictions. We also show that the quality of joint predictions drives performance in downstream decision tasks. We find these results are robust across choice a wide range of generative models, and highlight the practical importance of joint predictions to the community.

Most work on supervised learning research has focused on marginal predictions. In decision problems, joint predictive distributions are essential for good performance. Previous work has developed methods for assessing low-order predictive distributions with inputs sampled i.i.d. from the testing distribution. With low-dimensional inputs, these methods distinguish agents that effectively estimate uncertainty from those that do not. We establish that the predictive distribution order required for such differentiation increases greatly with input dimension, rendering these methods impractical. To accommodate high-dimensional inputs, we introduce dyadic sampling, which focuses on predictive distributions associated with random pairs of inputs. We demonstrate that this approach efficiently distinguishes agents in high-dimensional examples involving simple logistic regression as well as complex synthetic and empirical data.

We study a version of the classical zero-sum matrix game with unknown payoff matrix and bandit feedback, where the players only observe each others actions and a noisy payoff. This generalizes the usual matrix game, where the payoff matrix is known to the players. Despite numerous applications, this problem has received relatively little attention. Although adversarial bandit algorithms achieve low regret, they do not exploit the matrix structure and perform poorly relative to the new algorithms. The main contributions are regret analyses of variants of UCB and K-learning that hold for any opponent, e.g., even when the opponent adversarially plays the best-response to the learner’s mixed strategy. Along the way, we show that Thompson fails catastrophically in this setting and provide empirical comparison to existing algorithms.

We study the use of randomized value functions to guide deep exploration in reinforcement learning. This offers an elegant means for synthesizing statistically and computationally efficient exploration with common practical approaches to value function learning. We present several reinforcement learning algorithms that leverage randomized value functions and demonstrate their efficacy through computational studies. We also prove a regret bound that establishes statistical efficiency with a tabular representation.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved several high profile successes in difficult decision-making problems. However, these algorithms typically require a huge amount of data before they reach reasonable performance. In fact, their performance during learning can be extremely poor. This may be acceptable for a simulator, but it severely limits the applicability of deep RL to many real-world tasks, where the agent must learn in the real environment. In this paper we study a setting where the agent may access data from previous control of the system. We present an algorithm, Deep Q-learning from Demonstrations (DQfD), that leverages small sets of demonstration data to massively accelerate the learning process even from relatively small amounts of demonstration data and is able to automatically assess the necessary ratio of demonstration data while learning thanks to a prioritized replay mechanism. DQfD works by combining temporal difference updates with supervised classification of the demonstrator’s actions. We show that DQfD has better initial performance than Prioritized Dueling Double Deep Q-Networks (PDD DQN) as it starts with better scores on the first million steps on 41 of 42 games and on average it takes PDD DQN 83 million steps to catch up to DQfD’s performance. DQfD learns to out-perform the best demonstration given in 14 of 42 games. In addition, DQfD leverages human demonstrations to achieve state-of-the-art results for 11 games. Finally, we show that DQfD performs better than three related algorithms for incorporating demonstration data into DQN.

We consider a team of reinforcement learning agents that concurrently operate in a common environment, and we develop an approach to efficient coordinated exploration that is suitable for problems of practical scale. Our approach builds on the seed sampling concept introduced in Dimakopoulou and Van Roy (2018) and on a randomized value function learning algorithm from Osband et al. (2016). We demonstrate that, for simple tabular contexts, the approach is competitive with those previously proposed in Dimakopoulou and Van Roy (2018) and with a higher-dimensional problem and a neural network value function representation, the approach learns quickly with far fewer agents than alternative exploration schemes.

Dealing with uncertainty is essential for efficient reinforcement learning. There is a growing literature on uncertainty estimation for deep learning from fixed datasets, but many of the most popular approaches are poorly-suited to sequential decision problems. Other methods, such as bootstrap sampling, have no mechanism for uncertainty that does not come from the observed data. We highlight why this can be a crucial shortcoming and propose a simple remedy through addition of a randomized untrainable `prior' network to each ensemble member. We prove that this approach is efficient with linear representations, provide simple illustrations of its efficacy with nonlinear representations and show that this approach scales to large-scale problems far better than previous attempts.

We consider the problem of provably optimal exploration in reinforcement learning for finite horizon MDPs. We show that an optimistic modification to value iteration achieves a regret bound of $\tilde {O}( \sqrt{HSAT} + H^2S^2A+H\sqrt{T})$ where $H$ is the time horizon, $S$ the number of states, $A$ the number of actions and $T$ the number of time-steps. This result improves over the best previous known bound $\tilde {O}(HS \sqrt{AT})$ achieved by the UCRL2 algorithm. The key significance of our new results is that when $T\geq H^3S^3A$ and $SA\geq H$, it leads to a regret of $\tilde{O}(\sqrt{HSAT})$ that matches the established lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{HSAT})$ up to a logarithmic factor. Our analysis contain two key insights. We use careful application of concentration inequalities to the optimal value function as a whole, rather than to the transitions probabilities (to improve scaling in $S$), and we define Bernstein-based “exploration bonuses” that use the empirical variance of the estimated values at the next states (to improve scaling in $H$).

Computational results demonstrate that posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) dramatically outperforms existing algorithms driven by optimism, such as UCRL2. We provide insight into the extent of this performance boost and the phenomenon that drives it. We leverage this insight to establish an $\tilde{O}(H\sqrt{SAT})$ Bayesian regret bound for PSRL in finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes. This improves upon the best previous Bayesian regret bound of $\tilde{O}(H S \sqrt{AT})$ for any reinforcement learning algorithm. Our theoretical results are supported by extensive empirical evaluation.

We propose randomized least-squares value iteration (RLSVI) – a new reinforcement learning algorithm designed to explore and generalize efficiently via linearly parameterized value functions. We explain why versions of least-squares value iteration that use Boltzmann or epsilon-greedy exploration can be highly inefficient, and we present computational results that demonstrate dramatic efficiency gains enjoyed by RLSVI. Further, we establish an upper bound on the expected regret of RLSVI that demonstrates near-optimality in a tabula rasa learning context. More broadly, our results suggest that randomized value functions offer a promising approach to tackling a critical challenge in reinforcement learning: synthesizing efficient exploration and effective generalization.

Efficient exploration remains a major challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). Common dithering strategies for exploration, such as epsilon-greedy, do not carry out temporally-extended (or deep) exploration; this can lead to exponentially larger data requirements. However, most algorithms for statistically efficient RL are not computationally tractable in complex environments. Randomized value functions offer a promising approach to efficient exploration with generalization, but existing algorithms are not compatible with nonlinearly parameterized value functions. As a first step towards addressing such contexts we develop bootstrapped DQN. We demonstrate that bootstrapped DQN can combine deep exploration with deep neural networks for exponentially faster learning than any dithering strategy. In the Arcade Learning Environment bootstrapped DQN substantially improves learning speed and cumulative performance across most games.

Most provably efficient learning algorithms introduce optimism about poorly-understood states and actions to encourage exploration. We study an alternative approach for efficient exploration, posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL). This algorithm proceeds in repeated episodes of known duration. At the start of each episode, PSRL updates a prior distribution over Markov decision processes and takes one sample from this posterior. PSRL then follows the policy that is optimal for this sample during the episode. The algorithm is conceptually simple, computationally efficient and allows an agent to encode prior knowledge in a natural way. We establish an $\tilde{O}(\tau S \sqrt{AT} )$ bound on the expected regret, where $T$ is time, $\tau$ is the episode length and $S$ and $A$ are the cardinalities of the state and action spaces. This bound is one of the first for an algorithm not based on optimism and close to the state of the art for any reinforcement learning algorithm. We show through simulation that PSRL significantly outperforms existing algorithms with similar regret bounds.