Preference diversity arouses much research attention in recent years, as it is believed to be closely related to many profound problems such as user activeness in social media or recommendation systems. However, due to the lack of large-scale data with comprehensive user behavior log and accurate content labels, the real quantitative effect of preference diversity on user activeness is still largely unknown. This paper studies the heterogeneous effect of preference diversity on user activeness in social media. We examine large-scale real-world datasets collected from two of the most popular video-sharing social platforms in China, including the behavior logs of more than 787 thousand users and 1.95 million videos, with accurate content category information. We investigate the distribution and evolution of preference diversity, and find rich heterogeneity in the effect of preference diversity on the dynamic activeness. Furthermore, we discover the divergence of preference diversity mechanisms for the same user under different usage scenarios, such as active (where users actively seek information) and passive (where users passively receive information) modes. Unlike existing qualitative studies, we propose a universal mixture model with the capability of accurately fitting dynamic activeness curves while reflecting the heterogeneous patterns of preference diversity. To our best knowledge, this is the first quantitative model that incorporates the effect of preference diversity on user activeness. With the modeling parameters, we are able to make accurate churn and activeness predictions and provide decision support for increasing user activity through the intervention of diversity. Our findings and model comprehensively reveal the significance of preference diversity and provide potential implications for the design of future recommendation systems and social media.

Recent years witness the merge of social networks and user-generated content (UGC) platforms. In these new platforms, users establish links to others not only driven by their social relationships in the physical world but also driven by the contents published by others. During this merging process, social networks gradually integrate both social and content links and become unprecedentedly complicated, with the motivation to exploit both the advantages of social viscosity and content attractiveness to reach the best customer retention situation. However, due to the lack of fine-grained data recording such merging phenomena, the co-driven mechanism of social and content links in churn remains unexplored. How do social and content factors jointly influence customers' churn? What is the best ratio of social and content links for retention? Is there a model to capture this co-driven mechanism in churn phenomena? In this paper, we collect a real-world dataset with more than 5.77 million users and 1.15 billion links, with each link being tagged as a social one or a content one. We find that both social and content links have a significant impact on users' churn and they work jointly as a complicated mixture effect. As a result, we propose a novel survival model, which incorporates both social and content factors, to predict churn probability over time. Our model successfully fits the churn distribution in reality and accurately predicts the churn rate of different subpopulations in the future. By analyzing the modeling parameters, we try to strike a balance between social-driven and content-driven links in a user's social network to reach the lowest churn rate. Our model and findings may have potential implications for the design of future social media.

The collective behavior, describing spontaneously emerging social processes and events, is ubiquitous in both physical society and online social media. The knowledge of collective behavior is critical in understanding and predicting social movements, fads, riots and so on. However, detecting, quantifying and modeling the collective behavior in online social media at large scale are seldom unexplored. In this paper, we examine a real-world online social media with more than 1.7 million information spreading records, which explicitly document the detailed human behavior in this online information cascading system. We observe evident collective behavior in information cascading, and then propose metrics to quantify the collectivity. We find that previous information cascading models cannot capture the collective behavior in the real-world and thus never utilize it. Furthermore, we propose a generative framework with a latent user interest layer to capture the collective behavior in cascading system. Our framework achieves high accuracy in modeling the information cascades with respect to popularity, structure and collectivity. By leveraging the knowledge of collective behavior, our model shows the capability of making predictions without temporal features or early-stage information. Our framework can serve as a more generalized one in modeling cascading system, and, together with empirical discovery and applications, advance our understanding of human behavior.

Social behavior dynamics is one of the central building blocks in understanding and modeling complex social dynamic phenomena, such as information spreading, opinion formation, and social mobilization. While a wide range of models for social behavior dynamics have been proposed in recent years, the essential ingredients and the minimum model for social behavior dynamics is still largely unanswered. Here, we find that human interaction behavior dynamics exhibit rich complexities over the response time dimension and natural time dimension by exploring a large scale social communication dataset. To tackle this challenge, we develop a temporal Heterogeneous Survival framework where the regularities in response time dimension and natural time dimension can be organically integrated. We apply our model in two online social communication datasets. Our model can successfully regenerate the interaction patterns in the social communication datasets, and the results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines. Meanwhile, the learnt parameters and discovered statistical regularities can lead to multiple potential applications.

Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomena (i.e. cascading process) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors getting infected by a cascade after this node getting infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and present a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction.

Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments such as epidemic networks, traffic networks, water distribution networks and social networks. The outbreaks of cascades will often bring bad or even devastating effects. How to accurately predict the cascading outbreaks in early stage is of paramount importance for people to avoid these bad effects. Although there have been some pioneering works on cascading outbreaks detection, how to predict, rather than detect, the cascading outbreaks is still an open problem. In this paper, we attempt harnessing historical cascade data, propose a novel data driven approach to select important nodes as sensors, and predict the outbreaks based on the cascading behaviors of these sensors. In particular, we propose Orthogonal Sparse LOgistic Regression (OSLOR) method to jointly optimize node selection and outbreak prediction, where the prediction loss are combined with an orthogonal regularizer and L1 regularizer to guarantee good prediction accuracy, as well as the sparsity and low-redundancy of selected sensors. We evaluate the proposed method on a real online social network dataset including 182.7 million information cascades. The experimental results show that the proposed OSLOR significantly and consistently outperform topological measure based method and other data driven methods in prediction performances.