We present a statistical model of aerial images of recreational trails, and a method to infer trail routes in such images. We learn a set of text ons describing the images, and use them to divide the image into super-pixels represented by their text on. We then learn, for each text on, the frequency of generating on-trail and off-trail pixels, and the direction of trail through on-trail pixels. From these, we derive an image likelihood function. We combine that with a prior model of trail length and smoothness, yielding a posterior distribution for trails, given an image. We search for good values of this posterior using a novel stochastic variation of Dijkstra's algorithm. Our experiments, on trail images and ground truth collected in the western continental USA, show substantial improvement over those of the previous best trail-finding method.