Identifying drivers of viral diversity is key to understanding the evolutionary as well as epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using rich viral genomic data sets, we show that periods of steadily rising diversity have been punctuated by sudden, enormous increases followed by similarly abrupt collapses of diversity. We introduce a mechanistic model of saltational evolution with epistasis and demonstrate that these features parsimoniously account for the observed temporal dynamics of inter-genomic diversity. Our results provide support for recent proposals that saltational evolution may be a signature feature of SARS-CoV-2, allowing the pathogen to more readily evolve highly transmissible variants. These findings lend theoretical support to a heightened awareness of biological contexts where increased diversification may occur. They also underline the power of pathogen genomics and other surveillance streams in clarifying the phylodynamics of emerging and endemic infections. In public health terms, our results further underline the importance of equitable distribution of up-to-date vaccines.

Phages and bacteria manage to coexist and sustain ecosystems with a high diversity of strains, despite limited resources and heavy predation. This diversity can be explained by the "kill the winner" model where virulent phages predominantly prey on fast-growing bacteria and thereby suppress the competitive exclusion of slower-growing bacteria. Here we computationally investigate the robustness of these systems against invasions, where new phages or bacteria may interact with more than one of the resident strains. The resulting interaction networks were found to self-organize into a network with strongly interacting specialized predator-prey pairs, resembling that of the "kill the winner" model. Furthermore, the "kill the winner" dynamics is enforced with the occasional elimination of even the fastest-growing bacteria strains due to a phage infecting the fast and slow growers. The frequency of slower-growing strains was increased with the introduction of even a few non-diagonal interactions. Hence, phages capable of infecting multiple hosts play significant roles both in the evolution of the ecosystem by eliminating the winner and in supporting diversity by allowing slow growers to coexist with faster growers.

In food webs, many interacting species coexist despite the restrictions imposed by the competitive exclusion principle and apparent competition. For the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, sustainable coexistence necessitates nonzero determinant of the interaction matrix. Here we show that this requirement is equivalent to demanding that each species be part of a non-overlapping pairing, which substantially constrains the food web structure. We demonstrate that a stable food web can always be obtained if a non-overlapping pairing exists. If it does not, the matrix rank can be used to quantify the lack of niches, corresponding to unpaired species. For the species richness at each trophic level, we derive the food web assembly rules, which specify sustainable combinations. In neighboring levels, these rules allow the higher level to avert competitive exclusion at the lower, thereby incorporating apparent competition. In agreement with data, the assembly rules predict high species numbers at intermediate levels and thinning at the top and bottom. Using comprehensive food web data, we demonstrate how omnivores or parasites with hosts at multiple trophic levels can loosen the constraints and help obtain coexistence in food webs. Hence, omnivory may be the glue that keeps communities intact even under extinction or ecological release of species.

Populations of species in ecosystems are often constrained by availability of resources within their environment. In effect this means that a growth of one population, needs to be balanced by comparable reduction in populations of others. In neutral models of biodiversity all populations are assumed to change incrementally due to stochastic births and deaths of individuals. Here we propose and model another redistribution mechanism driven by abrupt and severe reduction in size of the population of a single species freeing up resources for the remaining ones. This mechanism may be relevant e.g. for communities of bacteria, with strain-specific collapses caused e.g. by invading bacteriophages, or for other ecosystems where infectious diseases play an important role. The emergent dynamics of our system is characterized by cyclic ''diversity waves'' triggered by collapses of globally dominating populations. The population diversity peaks at the beginning of each wave and exponentially decreases afterwards. Species abundances have bimodal time-aggregated distribution with the lower peak formed by populations of recently collapsed or newly introduced species while the upper peak--species that has not yet collapsed in the current wave. In most waves both upper and lower peaks are composed of several smaller peaks. This self-organized hierarchical peak structure has a long-term memory transmitted across several waves. It gives rise to a scale-free tail of the time-aggregated population distribution with a universal exponent of 1.7. We show that diversity wave dynamics is robust with respect to variations in the rules of our model such as diffusion between multiple environments, species-specific growth and extinction rates, and bet-hedging strategies.

Many toxin-antitoxin operons are regulated by the toxin/antitoxin ratio by mechanisms collectively coined "conditional cooperativity". Toxin and antitoxin form heteromers with different stoichiometric ratios, and the complex with the intermediate ratio works best as a transcription repressor. This allows transcription at low toxin level, strong repression at intermediate toxin level, and then again transcription at high toxin level. Such regulation has two interesting features; firstly, it provides a non-monotonous response to the concentration of one of the proteins, and secondly, it opens for ultra-sensitivity mediated by the sequestration of the functioning heteromers. We explore possible functions of conditional regulation in simple feedback motifs, and show that it can provide bistability for a wide range of parameters. We then demonstrate that the conditional cooperativity in toxin-antitoxin systems combined with the growth-inhibition activity of free toxin can mediate bistability between a growing state and a dormant state.

Nucleosomes can be covalently modified by addition of various chemical groups on several of their exposed histone amino acids. These modifications are added and removed by enzymes (writers) and can be recognized by nucleosome-binding proteins (readers). Linking a reader domain and a writer domain that recognize and create the same modification state should allow nucleosomes in a particular modification state to recruit enzymes that create that modification state on nearby nucleosomes. This positive feedback has the potential to provide the alternative stable and heritable states required for epigenetic memory. However, analysis of simple histone codes involving interconversions between only two or three types of modified nucleosomes has revealed only a few circuit designs that allow heritable bistability. Here we show by computer simulations that a histone code involving alternative modifications at two histone positions, producing four modification states, combined with reader-writer proteins able to distinguish these states, allows for hundreds of different circuits capable of heritable bistability. These expanded possibilities result from multiple ways of generating two-step cooperativity in the positive feedback--through alternative pathways and an additional, novel cooperativity motif. Our analysis reveals other properties of such epigenetic circuits. They are most robust when the dominant nucleosome types are different at both modification positions and are not the type inserted after DNA replication. The dominant nucleosome types often recruit enzymes that create their own type or destroy the opposing type, but never catalyze their own destruction. The circuits appear to be evolutionary accessible; most circuits can be changed stepwise into almost any other circuit without losing heritable bistability. Thus, our analysis indicates that systems that utilize an expanded histone code have huge potential for generating stable and heritable nucleosome modification states and identifies the critical features of such systems.

MOTIVATION: All metabolic networks contain metabolites, such as ATP and NAD, known as currency metabolites, which take part in many reactions. These are often removed in the study of these networks, but no consensus exists on what actually constitutes a currency metabolite, and it is also unclear how these highly connected nodes contribute to the global structure of the network. RESULTS: In this article, we analyse how the Escherichia coli metabolic network responds to pruning in the form of sequential removal of metabolites with highest degree. As expected this leads to network fragmentation, but the process by which it occurs suggests modularity and long-range correlations within the network. We find that the pruned networks contain longer paths than the random expectation, and that the paths that survive the pruning also exhibit a lower cost (number of involved metabolites) compared with random paths in the full metabolic network. Finally we confirm that paths detected by pruning overlap with known metabolic pathways. We conclude that pruning reveals functional pathways in metabolic networks, where currency metabolites may be seen as ingredients in a well-balanced soup in which main metabolic production lines are immersed. CONTACT: [email protected] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Noise in the expression of a gene produces fluctuations in the concentration of the gene product. These fluctuations can interfere with optimal function or can be exploited to generate beneficial diversity between cells; gene expression noise is therefore expected to be subject to evolutionary pressure. Shifts between modes of high and low rates of transcription initiation at a promoter appear to contribute to this noise both in eukaryotes and prokaryotes. However, models invoked for eukaryotic promoter noise such as stable activation scaffolds or persistent nucleosome alterations seem unlikely to apply to prokaryotic promoters. We consider the relative importance of the steps required for transcription initiation. The 3-step transcription initiation model of McClure is extended into a mathematical model that can be used to predict consequences of additional promoter properties. We show in principle that the transcriptional bursting observed at an E. coli promoter by Golding et al. (2005) can be explained by stimulation of initiation by the negative supercoiling behind a transcribing RNA polymerase (RNAP) or by the formation of moribund or dead-end RNAP-promoter complexes. Both mechanisms are tunable by the alteration of promoter kinetics and therefore allow the optimization of promoter mediated noise.

Escherichia coli bacteria respond to DNA damage by a highly orchestrated series of events known as the SOS response, regulated by transcription factors, protein-protein binding, and active protein degradation. We present a dynamical model of the UV-induced SOS response, incorporating mutagenesis by the error-prone polymerase, Pol V. In our model, mutagenesis depends on a combination of two key processes: damage counting by the replication forks and a long-term memory associated with the accumulation of UmuD'. Together, these provide a tight regulation of mutagenesis, resulting, we show, in a "digital" turn-on and turn-off of Pol V. Our model provides a compact view of the topology and design of the SOS network, pinpointing the specific functional role of each of the regulatory processes. In particular, we suggest that the recently observed second peak in the activity of promoters in the SOS regulon (Friedman et al., 2005, PLoS Biology 3(7): e238) is the result of positive feedback from Pol V to RecA filaments.

The relationship between the design and functionality of molecular networks is now a key issue in biology. Comparison of regulatory networks performing similar tasks can provide insights into how network architecture is constrained by the functions it directs. Here, we discuss methods of network comparison based on network architecture and signaling logic. Introducing local and global signaling scores for the difference between two networks, we quantify similarities between evolutionarily closely and distantly related bacteriophages. Despite the large evolutionary separation between phage lambda and 186, their networks are found to be similar when difference is measured in terms of global signaling. We finally discuss how network alignment can be used to pinpoint protein similarities viewed from the network perspective.