The lack of reliable biomarkers makes predicting the conversion from intermediate to neovascular age-related macular degeneration (iAMD, nAMD) a challenging task. We develop a Deep Learning (DL) model to predict the future risk of conversion of an eye from iAMD to nAMD from its current OCT scan. Although eye clinics generate vast amounts of longitudinal OCT scans to monitor AMD progression, only a small subset can be manually labeled for supervised DL. To address this issue, we propose Morph-SSL, a novel Self-supervised Learning (SSL) method for longitudinal data. It uses pairs of unlabelled OCT scans from different visits and involves morphing the scan from the previous visit to the next. The Decoder predicts the transformation for morphing and ensures a smooth feature manifold that can generate intermediate scans between visits through linear interpolation. Next, the Morph-SSL trained features are input to a Classifier which is trained in a supervised manner to model the cumulative probability distribution of the time to conversion with a sigmoidal function. Morph-SSL was trained on unlabelled scans of 399 eyes (3570 visits). The Classifier was evaluated with a five-fold cross-validation on 2418 scans from 343 eyes with clinical labels of the conversion date. The Morph-SSL features achieved an AUC of 0.779 in predicting the conversion to nAMD within the next 6 months, outperforming the same network when trained end-to-end from scratch or pre-trained with popular SSL methods. Automated prediction of the future risk of nAMD onset can enable timely treatment and individualized AMD management.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a powerful technique for improving the efficiency and effectiveness of deep learning models. Contrastive methods are a prominent family of SSL that extract similar representations of two augmented views of an image while pushing away others in the representation space as negatives. However, the state-of-the-art contrastive methods require large batch sizes and augmentations designed for natural images that are impractical for 3D medical images. To address these limitations, we propose a new longitudinal SSL method, 3DTINC, based on non-contrastive learning. It is designed to learn perturbation-invariant features for 3D optical coherence tomography (OCT) volumes, using augmentations specifically designed for OCT. We introduce a new non-contrastive similarity loss term that learns temporal information implicitly from intra-patient scans acquired at different times. Our experiments show that this temporal information is crucial for predicting progression of retinal diseases, such as age-related macular degeneration (AMD). After pretraining with 3DTINC, we evaluated the learned representations and the prognostic models on two large-scale longitudinal datasets of retinal OCTs where we predict the conversion to wet-AMD within a six-month interval. Our results demonstrate that each component of our contributions is crucial for learning meaningful representations useful in predicting disease progression from longitudinal volumetric scans.

Robust forecasting of the future anatomical changes inflicted by an ongoing disease is an extremely challenging task that is out of grasp even for experienced healthcare professionals. Such a capability, however, is of great importance since it can improve patient management by providing information on the speed of disease progression already at the admission stage, or it can enrich the clinical trials with fast progressors and avoid the need for control arms by the means of digital twins. In this work, we develop a deep learning method that models the evolution of age-related disease by processing a single medical scan and providing a segmentation of the target anatomy at a requested future point in time. Our method represents a time-invariant physical process and solves a large-scale problem of modeling temporal pixel-level changes utilizing NeuralODEs. In addition, we demonstrate the approaches to incorporate the prior domain-specific constraints into our method and define temporal Dice loss for learning temporal objectives. To evaluate the applicability of our approach across different age-related diseases and imaging modalities, we developed and tested the proposed method on the datasets with 967 retinal OCT volumes of 100 patients with Geographic Atrophy and 2823 brain MRI volumes of 633 patients with Alzheimer's Disease. For Geographic Atrophy, the proposed method outperformed the related baseline models in the atrophy growth prediction. For Alzheimer's Disease, the proposed method demonstrated remarkable performance in predicting the brain ventricle changes induced by the disease, achieving the state-of-the-art result on TADPOLE cross-sectional prediction challenge dataset.

The level set based deformable models (LDM) are commonly used for medical image segmentation. However, they rely on a handcrafted curve evolution velocity that needs to be adapted for each segmentation task. The Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) address this issue by learning robust features in a supervised end-to-end manner. However, CNNs employ millions of network parameters, which require a large amount of data during training to prevent over-fitting and increases the memory requirement and computation time during testing. Moreover, since CNNs pose segmentation as a region-based pixel labeling, they cannot explicitly model the high-level dependencies between the points on the object boundary to preserve its overall shape, smoothness or the regional homogeneity within and outside the boundary. We present a Recurrent Neural Network based solution called the RACE-net to address the above issues. RACE-net models a generalized LDM evolving under a constant and mean curvature velocity. At each time-step, the curve evolution velocities are approximated using a feed-forward architecture inspired by the multiscale image pyramid. RACE-net allows the curve evolution velocities to be learned in an end-to-end manner while minimizing the number of network parameters, computation time, and memory requirements. The RACE-net was validated on three different segmentation tasks: optic disc and cup in color fundus images, cell nuclei in histopathological images, and the left atrium in cardiac MRI volumes. Assessment on public datasets was seen to yield high Dice values between 0.87 and 0.97, which illustrates its utility as a generic, off-the-shelf architecture for biomedical segmentation.