Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic uncertainty estimates into uncertainty estimates with statistical guarantees. CP works by converting predictions of a ML model, together with a calibration sample, into prediction sets that are guaranteed to contain the true label with any desired probability. An often cited advantage is that CP theory holds for calibration samples of arbitrary size, suggesting that uncertainty estimates with practically meaningful statistical guarantees can be achieved even if only small calibration sets are available. We question this promise by showing that, although the statistical guarantees hold for calibration sets of arbitrary size, the practical utility of these guarantees does highly depend on the size of the calibration set. This observation is relevant in medical domains because data is often scarce and obtaining large calibration sets is therefore infeasible. We corroborate our critique in an empirical demonstration on a medical image classification task.

Abstract We propose a gradient-based online optimization framework for solving stochastic programming problems that frequently arise in the context of cyber-physical and robotic systems. Our problem formulation accommodates constraints that model the evolution of a cyber-physical system, which has, in general, a continuous state and action space, is nonlinear, and where the state is only partially observed. We also incorporate an approximate model of the dynamics as prior knowledge into the learning process and show that even rough estimates of the dynamics can significantly improve the convergence of our algorithms. Our online optimization framework encompasses both gradient descent and quasi-Newton methods, and we provide a unified convergence analysis of our algorithms in a non-convex setting. We also characterize the impact of modeling errors in the system dynamics on the convergence rate of the algorithms. Finally, we evaluate our algorithms in simulations of a flexible beam, a four-legged walking robot, and in real-world experiments with a ping-pong playing robot.

As machine learning models grow in complexity and increasingly rely on publicly sourced data, such as the human-annotated labels used in training large language models, they become more vulnerable to label poisoning attacks. These attacks, in which adversaries subtly alter the labels within a training dataset, can severely degrade model performance, posing significant risks in critical applications. In this paper, we propose $\textbf{Floral}$, a novel adversarial training defense strategy based on support vector machines (SVMs) to counter these threats. Utilizing a bilevel optimization framework, we cast the training process as a non-zero-sum Stackelberg game between an $\textit{attacker}$, who strategically poisons critical training labels, and the $\textit{model}$, which seeks to recover from such attacks. Our approach accommodates various model architectures and employs a projected gradient descent algorithm with kernel SVMs for adversarial training. We provide a theoretical analysis of our algorithm’s convergence properties and empirically evaluate $\textbf{Floral}$'s effectiveness across diverse classification tasks. Compared to robust baselines and foundation models such as RoBERTa, $\textbf{Floral}$ consistently achieves higher robust accuracy under increasing attacker budgets. These results underscore the potential of $\textbf{Floral}$ to enhance the resilience of machine learning models against label poisoning threats, thereby ensuring robust classification in adversarial settings.

Generative models lack rigorous statistical guarantees with respect to their predictions. In this work, we propose Sequential Conformal Prediction for Generative Models (SCOPE-Gen), a sequential conformal prediction method producing prediction sets that satisfy a rigorous statistical guarantee called conformal admissibility control. This guarantee means that the prediction sets contain at least one admissible (or valid) example, with high probability. To this end, our method first samples an initial set of i.i.d. examples from a black box generative model. Then, this set is iteratively pruned via so-called greedy filters. As a consequence of the iterative generation procedure, admissibility of the final prediction set factorizes as a Markov chain, where each factor can be controlled separately, using conformal prediction. In comparison to prior work, our method demonstrates a large reduction in the number of admissibility evaluations during calibration. This is crucial e.g. in safety-critical applications, where these evaluations must be conducted manually by domain experts and are therefore costly and time consuming. We highlight the advantages of our method in terms of admissibility evaluations and cardinality of the prediction set through experiments in natural language generation and molecular graph extension tasks.

Partially observable environments present a considerable computational challenge in reinforcement learning due to the need to consider long histories. Learning with a finite window of observations quickly becomes intractable as the window length grows. In this work, we introduce *memory traces*. Inspired by eligibility traces, these are compact representations of the history of observations in the form of exponential moving averages. We prove sample complexity bounds for the problem of offline on-policy evaluation that quantify the return errors achieved with memory traces for the class of Lipschitz continuous value estimates. We establish a close connection to the window approach, and demonstrate that, in certain environments, learning with memory traces is significantly more sample efficient. Finally, we underline the effectiveness of memory traces empirically in online reinforcement learning experiments for both value prediction and control.

We consider a distributed learning problem, where agents minimize a global objective function by exchanging information over a network. Our approach has two distinct features: (i) It substantially reduces communication by triggering communication only when necessary, and (ii) it is agnostic to the data-distribution among the different agents. We can therefore guarantee convergence even if the local data-distributions of the agents are arbitrarily distinct. We analyze the convergence rate of the algorithm both in convex and nonconvex settings and derive accelerated convergence rates in a convex setting. We also characterize the effect of communication failures and demonstrate that our algorithm is robust to communication failures. The article concludes by presenting numerical results from distributed learning tasks on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets. The experiments underline communication savings of 35\% or more due to the event-based communication strategy, show resilience towards heterogeneous data-distributions, and highlight that our approach outperforms common baselines such as FedAvg, FedProx, SCAFFOLD and FedADMM.

Sampling from constrained statistical distributions is a fundamental task in various fields including Bayesian statistics, computational chemistry, and statistical physics. This article considers the cases where the constrained distribution is described by an unconstrained density, as well as additional equality and/or inequality constraints, which often make the constraint set nonconvex. Existing methods for nonconvex constraint set $\Sigma \subset \mathbb{R}^d$ defined by equality or inequality constraints commonly rely on costly projection steps. Moreover, they cannot handle equality and inequality constraints simultaneously as each method only specialized in one case. In addition, rigorous and quantitative convergence guarantee is often lacking. In this paper, we introduce Overdamped Langevin with LAnding (OLLA), a new framework that can design overdamped Langevin dynamics accommodating both equality and inequality constraints. The proposed dynamics also deterministically corrects trajectories along the normal direction of the constraint surface, thus obviating the need for explicit projections. We show that, under suitable regularity conditions on the target density and $\Sigma$, OLLA converges exponentially fast in $W_2$ distance to the constrained target density $\rho_\Sigma(x) \propto \exp(-f(x))d\sigma_\Sigma$. Lastly, through experiments, we demonstrate the efficiency of OLLA compared to projection-based constrained Langevin algorithms and their slack variable variants, highlighting its favorable computational cost and reasonable empirical mixing.

Current transformer-based imitation learning approaches introduce discrete action representations and train an autoregressive transformer decoder on the resulting latent code. However, the initial quantization breaks the continuous structure of the action space thereby limiting the capabilities of the generative model. We propose a quantization-free method instead that leverages Generative Infinite-Vocabulary Transformers (GIVT) as a direct, continuous policy parametrization for autoregressive transformers. This simplifies the imitation learning pipeline while achieving state-of-the-art performance on a variety of popular simulated robotics tasks. We enhance our policy roll-outs by carefully studying sampling algorithms, further improving the results.

Zeroth-order methods are extensively used in machine learning applications where gradients are infeasible or expensive to compute, such as black-box attacks, reinforcement learning, and language model fine-tuning. Existing optimization theory focuses on convergence to an arbitrary stationary point, but less is known on the implicit regularization that provides a fine-grained characterization on which particular solutions are finally reached. We show that zeroth-order optimization with the standard two-point estimator favors solutions with small trace of Hessian, which is widely used in previous work to distinguish between sharp and flat minima. We further provide convergence rates of zeroth-order optimization to approximate flat minima for convex and sufficiently smooth functions, where flat minima are defined as the minimizers that achieve the smallest trace of Hessian among all optimal solutions. Experiments on binary classification tasks with convex losses and language model fine-tuning support our theoretical findings.

We consider the problem of minimizing a non-convex function over a smooth manifold M. We propose a novel algorithm, the Orthogonal Directions Constrained Gradient Method (ODCGM), which only requires computing a projection onto a vector space. ODCGM is infeasible but the iterates are constantly pulled towards the manifold, ensuring the convergence of ODCGM towards M. ODCGM is much simpler to implement than the classical methods which require the computation of a retraction. Moreover, we show that ODCGM exhibits the near-optimal oracle complexities O(1/ε^{-2}) and O(1/ε^{-4}) in the deterministic and stochastic cases, respectively. Furthermore, we establish that, under an appropriate choice of the projection metric, our method recovers the landing algorithm of Ablin and Peyré (2022), a recently introduced algorithm for optimization over the Stiefel manifold. As a result, we significantly extend the analysis of Ablin and Peyré (2022), establishingnear-optimal rates both in deterministic and stochastic frameworks. Finally, we perform numerical experiments, which shows the efficiency of ODCGM in a high-dimensional setting.

We present an implementation of an online op-timization algorithm for hitting a predefined target when returning ping-pong balls with a table tennis robot. The online algorithm optimizes over so-called interception policies, which define the manner in which the robot arm intercepts the ball. In our case, these are composed of the state of the robot arm (position and velocity) at interception time. Gradient information is provided to the optimization algorithm via the mapping from the interception policy to the landing point of the ball on the table, which is approximated with a black-box and a grey-box approach. Our algorithm is applied to a robotic arm with four degrees of freedom that is driven by pneumatic artificial muscles. As a result, the robot arm is able to return the ball onto any predefined target on the table after about 2–5 iterations. We highlight the robustness of our approach by showing rapid convergence with both the black-box and the grey-box gradients. In addition, the small number of iterations required to reach close proximity to the target also underlines the sample efficiency. A demonstration video can be found here: https://youtu.be/VC3KJoCss0k.

In many applications, learning systems are required to process continuous non-stationary data streams. We study this problem in an online learning framework and propose an algorithm that can deal with adversarial time-varying and nonlinear constraints. As we show in our work, the algorithm called Constraint Violation Velocity Projection (CVV-Pro) achieves $\sqrt{T}$ regret and converges to the feasible set at a rate of $1/\sqrt{T}$, despite the fact that the feasible set is slowly time-varying and a priori unknown to the learner. CVV-Pro only relies on local sparse linear approximations of the feasible set and therefore avoids optimizing over the entire set at each iteration, which is in sharp contrast to projected gradients or Frank-Wolfe methods. We also empirically evaluate our algorithm on two-player games, where the players are subjected to a shared constraint.

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can be improved by combining estimators arising from both the observational and interventional setting. To this end, we derive methods based on matrix weighted linear estimators and prove that our methods are asymptotically unbiased in the infinite sample limit. This is an important improvement compared to the pooled estimator using the union of interventional and observational data, for which the bias only vanishes if the ratio of observational to interventional data tends to zero. Studies on synthetic data confirm our theoretical findings. In settings where confounding is substantial and the ratio of observational to interventional data is large, our estimators outperform a Stein-type estimator and various other baselines.

We analyze the convergence rates of stochastic gradient algorithms for smooth finite-sum minimax optimization and show that, for many such algorithms, sampling the data points \emph{without replacement} leads to faster convergence compared to sampling with replacement. For the smooth and strongly convex-strongly concave setting, we consider gradient descent ascent and the proximal point method, and present a unified analysis of two popular without-replacement sampling strategies, namely \emph{Random Reshuffling} (RR), which shuffles the data every epoch, and \emph{Single Shuffling} or \emph{Shuffle Once} (SO), which shuffles only at the beginning. We obtain tight convergence rates for RR and SO and demonstrate that these strategies lead to faster convergence than uniform sampling. Moving beyond convexity, we obtain similar results for smooth nonconvex-nonconcave objectives satisfying a two-sided Polyak-\L{}ojasiewicz inequality. Finally, we demonstrate that our techniques are general enough to analyze the effect of \emph{data-ordering attacks}, where an adversary manipulates the order in which data points are supplied to the optimizer. Our analysis also recovers tight rates for the \emph{incremental gradient} method, where the data points are not shuffled at all.

We introduce a class of first-order methods for smooth constrained optimization that are based on an analogy to non-smooth dynamical systems. Two distinctive features of our approach are that (i) projections or optimizations over the entire feasible set are avoided, in stark contrast to projected gradient methods or the Frank-Wolfe method, and (ii) iterates are allowed to become infeasible, which differs from active set or feasible direction methods, where the descent motion stops as soon as a new constraint is encountered. The resulting algorithmic procedure is simple to implement even when constraints are nonlinear, and is suitable for large-scale constrained optimization problems in which the feasible set fails to have a simple structure. The key underlying idea is that constraints are expressed in terms of velocities instead of positions, which has the algorithmic consequence that optimizations over feasible sets at each iteration are replaced with optimizations over local, sparse convex approximations. In particular, this means that at each iteration only constraints that are violated are taken into account. The result is a simplified suite of algorithms and an expanded range of possible applications in machine learning.

We analyze the convergence rate of various momentum-based optimization algorithms from a dynamical systems point of view. Our analysis exploits fundamental topological properties, such as the continuous dependence of iterates on their initial conditions, to provide a simple characterization of convergence rates. In many cases, closed-form expressions are obtained that relate algorithm parameters to the convergence rate. The analysis encompasses discrete time and continuous time, as well as time-invariant and time-variant formulations, and is not limited to a convex or Euclidean setting. In addition, the article rigorously establishes why symplectic discretization schemes are important for momentum-based optimization algorithms, and provides a characterization of algorithms that exhibit accelerated convergence.

This article derives lower bounds on the convergence rate of continuous-time gradient-based optimization algorithms. The algorithms are subjected to a time-normalization constraint that avoids a reparametrization of time in order to make the discussion of continuous-time convergence rates meaningful. We reduce the multi-dimensional problem to a single dimension, recover well-known lower bounds from the discrete-time setting, and provide insight into why these lower bounds occur. We present algorithms that achieve the proposed lower bounds, even when the function class under consideration includes certain nonconvex functions.

We present a dynamical system framework for understanding Nesterov’s accelerated gradient method. In contrast to earlier work, our derivation does not rely on a vanishing step size argument. We show that Nesterov acceleration arises from discretizing an ordinary differential equation with a semi-implicit Euler integration scheme. We analyze both the underlying differential equation as well as the discretization to obtain insights into the phenomenon of acceleration. The analysis suggests that a curvature-dependent damping term lies at the heart of the phenomenon. We further establish connections between the discretized and the continuous-time dynamics.

This article discusses the implementation of an infinite-horizon model predictive control approach that is based on representing input and state trajectories by a linear combination of basis functions. An iterative constraint sampling strategy is presented for guaranteeing constraint satisfaction over all times. It will be shown that the proposed method converges. In addition, we will discuss the implementation of the resulting (online) model predictive control algorithm on an unmanned aerial vehicle and provide experimental results. The computational efficiency of the algorithm is highlighted by the fact that a sampling rate of 100 Hz was achieved on an embedded platform.

An approximate model predictive control approach is applied on an unmanned aerial vehicle with limited computational resources. A novel method using a continuous time parametrization of the state and input trajectory is used to derive a compact description of the optimal control problem. Different first order methods for the online optimization are discussed in terms of memory requirements and execution time. The generalized fast dual gradient method is implemented on the aerial vehicle. The approximate model predictive control algorithm runs on an embedded platform with a STM32 Cortex M4 processor. Simulation studies show that the model predictive controller outperforms a linear quadratic regulator in aggressive maneuvers. The model predictive control approach is evaluated in practice and shown to yield satisfactory flight behavior.