Graph convolutional networks (GCNs) have been proved to be very practical to handle various graph-related tasks. It has attracted considerable research interest to study deep GCNs, due to their potential superior performance compared with shallow ones. However, simply increasing network depth will, on the contrary, hurt the performance due to the over-smoothing problem. Adding residual connection is proved to be effective for learning deep convolutional neural networks (deep CNNs), it is not trivial when applied to deep GCNs. Recent works proposed an initial residual mechanism that did alleviate the over-smoothing problem in deep GCNs. However, according to our study, their algorithms are quite sensitive to different datasets. In their setting, the personalization (dynamic) and correlation (evolving) of how residual applies are ignored. To this end, we propose a novel model called Dynamic evolving initial Residual Graph Convolutional Network (DRGCN). Firstly, we use a dynamic block for each node to adaptively fetch information from the initial representation. Secondly, we use an evolving block to model the residual evolving pattern between layers. Our experimental results show that our model effectively relieves the problem of over-smoothing in deep GCNs and outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods on various benchmark datasets. Moreover, we develop a mini-batch version of DRGCN which can be applied to large-scale data. Coupling with several fair training techniques, our model reaches new SOTA results on the large-scale ogbn-arxiv dataset of Open Graph Benchmark (OGB). Our reproducible code is available on GitHub.

The era of big data has witnessed an increasing availability of observational data from mobile and social networking, online advertising, web mining, healthcare, education, public policy, marketing campaigns, and so on, which facilitates the development of causal effect estimation. Although significant advances have been made to overcome the challenges in the academic area, such as missing counterfactual outcomes and selection bias, they only focus on source-specific and stationary observational data, which is unrealistic in most industrial applications. In this paper, we investigate a new industrial problem of causal effect estimation from incrementally available observational data and present three new evaluation criteria accordingly, including extensibility, adaptability, and accessibility. We propose a Continual Causal Effect Representation Learning method for estimating causal effects with observational data, which are incrementally available from non-stationary data distributions. Instead of having access to all seen observational data, our method only stores a limited subset of feature representations learned from previous data. Combining selective and balanced representation learning, feature representation distillation, and feature transformation, our method achieves the continual causal effect estimation for new data without compromising the estimation capability for original data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of continual causal effect estimation and the effectiveness of our method.

Simpson's paradox is a well-known statistical phenomenon that has captured the attention of statisticians, mathematicians, and philosophers for more than a century. The paradox often confuses people when it appears in data, and ignoring it may lead to incorrect decisions. Recent studies have found many examples of Simpson's paradox in social data and proposed a few methods to detect the paradox automatically. However, these methods suffer from many limitations, such as being only suitable for categorical variables or one specific paradox. To address these problems, we develop a learning-based approach to discover various Simpson's paradoxes. Firstly, we propose a framework from a statistical perspective that unifies multiple variants of Simpson's paradox currently known. Secondly, we present a novel loss function, Multi-group Pearson Correlation Coefficient (MPCC), to calculate the association strength of two variables of multiple subgroups. Then, we design a neural network model, coined SimNet, to automatically disaggregate data into multiple subgroups by optimizing the MPCC loss. Experiments on various datasets demonstrate that SimNet can discover various Simpson's paradoxes caused by discrete and continuous variables, even hidden variables. The code is available at https://github.com/ant-research/Learning-to-Discover-Various-Simpson-Paradoxes.

Next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation task focuses on predicting the immediate next position a user would visit, thus providing appealing location advice. In light of this, graph neural networks (GNNs) based models have recently been emerging as breakthroughs for this task due to their ability to learn global user preferences and alleviate cold-start challenges. Nevertheless, most existing methods merely focus on the relations between POIs, neglecting the higher-order information including user trajectories and the collaborative relations among trajectories. In this paper, we propose the Spatio-Temporal HyperGraph Convolutional Network (STHGCN). This model leverages a hypergraph to capture the trajectory-grain information and learn from user's historical trajectories (intra-user) as well as collaborative trajectories from other users (inter-user). Furthermore, a novel hypergraph transformer is introduced to effectively combine the hypergraph structure encoding with spatio-temporal information. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods and further analysis confirms the effectiveness in alleviating cold-start issues and achieving improved performance for both short and long trajectories.

Accurate estimation of post-click conversion rate is critical for building recommender systems, which has long been confronted with sample selection bias and data sparsity issues. Methods in the Entire Space Multi-task Model (ESMM) family leverage the sequential pattern of user actions, \ie $impression\rightarrow click \rightarrow conversion$ to address data sparsity issue. However, they still fail to ensure the unbiasedness of CVR estimates. In this paper, we theoretically demonstrate that ESMM suffers from the following two problems: (1) Inherent Estimation Bias (IEB) for CVR estimation, where the CVR estimate is inherently higher than the ground truth; (2) Potential Independence Priority (PIP) for CTCVR estimation, where ESMM might overlook the causality from click to conversion. To this end, we devise a principled approach named Entire Space Counterfactual Multi-task Modelling (ESCM$^2$), which employs a counterfactual risk miminizer as a regularizer in ESMM to address both IEB and PIP issues simultaneously. Extensive experiments on offline datasets and online environments demonstrate that our proposed ESCM$^2$ can largely mitigate the inherent IEB and PIP issues and achieve better performance than baseline models.