The Skolem problem is a long-standing open problem in linear dynamical systems: can a linear recurrence sequence (LRS) ever reach 0 from a given initial configuration? Similarly, the positivity problem asks whether the LRS stays positive from an initial configuration. Deciding Skolem (or positivity) has been open for half a century: the best known decidability results are for LRS with special properties (e.g., low order recurrences). But these problems are easier for "uninitialized" variants, where the initial configuration is not fixed but can vary arbitrarily: checking if there is an initial configuration from which the LRS stays positive can be decided in polynomial time (Tiwari in 2004, Braverman in 2006). In this paper, we consider problems that lie between the initialized and uninitialized variants. More precisely, we ask if 0 (resp. negative numbers) can be avoided from every initial configuration in a neighborhood of a given initial configuration. This can be considered as a robust variant of the Skolem (resp. positivity) problem. We show that these problems lie at the frontier of decidability: if the neighbourhood is given as part of the input, then robust Skolem and robust positivity are Diophantine hard, i.e., solving either would entail major breakthroughs in Diophantine approximations, as happens for (non-robust) positivity. However, if one asks whether such a neighbourhood exists, then the problems turn out to be decidable with PSPACE complexity. Our techniques also allow us to tackle robustness for ultimate positivity, which asks whether there is a bound on the number of steps after which the LRS remains positive. There are two variants depending on whether we ask for a "uniform" bound on this number of steps. For the non-uniform variant, when the neighbourhood is open, the problem turns out to be tractable, even when the neighbourhood is given as input.

The Skolem problem is a long-standing open problem in linear dynamical systems: can a linear recurrence sequence (LRS) ever reach 0 from a given initial configuration? Similarly, the positivity problem asks whether the LRS stays positive from an initial configuration. Deciding Skolem (or positivity) has been open for half a century: The best known decidability results are for LRS with special properties (e.g., low order recurrences). On the other hand, these problems are much easier for "uninitialized" variants, where the initial configuration is not fixed but can vary arbitrarily: checking if there is an initial configuration from which the LRS stays positive can be decided by polynomial time algorithms (Tiwari in 2004, Braverman in 2006). In this paper, we consider problems that lie between the initialized and uninitialized variant. More precisely, we ask if 0 (resp. negative numbers) can be avoided from every initial configuration in a neighborhood of a given initial configuration. This can be considered as a robust variant of the Skolem (resp. positivity) problem. We show that these problems lie at the frontier of decidability: if the neighborhood is given as part of the input, then robust Skolem and robust positivity are Diophantine-hard, i.e., solving either would entail major breakthrough in Diophantine approximations, as happens for (non-robust) positivity. Interestingly, this is the first Diophantine-hardness result on a variant of the Skolem problem, to the best of our knowledge. On the other hand, if one asks whether such a neighborhood exists, then the problems turn out to be decidable in their full generality, with PSPACE complexity. Our analysis is based on the set of initial configurations such that positivity holds, which leads to new insights into these difficult problems, and interesting geometrical interpretations.

Learning models from observations of a system is a powerful tool with many applications. In this paper, we consider learning Discrete Time Markov Chains (DTMC), with different methods such as frequency estimation or Laplace smoothing . While models learnt with such methods converge asymptotically towards the exact system, a more practical question in the realm of trusted machine learning is how accurate a model learnt with a limited time budget is. Existing approaches provide bounds on how close the model is to the original system, in terms of bounds on local (transition) probabilities, which has unclear implication on the global behavior. In this work, we provide global bounds on the error made by such a learning process, in terms of global behaviors formalized using temporal logic . More precisely, we propose a learning process ensuring a bound on the error in the probabilities of these properties. While such learning process cannot exist for the full LTL logic, we provide one ensuring a bound that is uniform over all the formulas of CTL. Further, given one time-to-failure property, we provide an improved learning algorithm. Interestingly, frequency estimation is sufficient for the latter, while Laplace smoothing is needed to ensure non-trivial uniform bounds for the full CTL logic.

An important task in AI is one of classifying an observation as belonging to one class among several (e.g. image classification). We revisit this problem in a verification context: given k partially observable systems modeled as Hidden Markov Models (also called labeled Markov chains), and an execution of one of them, can we eventually classify which system performed this execution, just by looking at its observations? Interestingly, this problem generalizes several problems in verification and control, such as fault diagnosis and opacity. Also, classification has strong connections with different notions of distances between stochastic models. In this paper, we study a general and practical notion of classifiers, namely limit-sure classifiers, which allow misclassification, i.e. errors in classification, as long as the probability of misclassification tends to 0 as the length of the observation grows. To study the complexity of several notions of classification, we develop techniques based on a simple but powerful notion of stationary distributions for HMMs. We prove that one cannot classify among HMMs iff there is a finite separating word from their stationary distributions. This provides a direct proof that classifiability can be checked in PTIME, as an alternative to existing proofs using separating events (i.e. sets of infinite separating words) for the total variation distance. Our approach also allows us to introduce and tackle new notions of classifiability which are applicable in a security context.

We study quantitative properties of the response time in stochastic models. For instance, we are interested in quantifying bounds such that a high percentage of the runs answers a query within these bounds. To study such problems, computing probabilities on a state-space blown-up by a factor depending on the bound could be used, but this solution is not satisfactory when the bound is large. In this paper, we propose a new symbolic method to quantify bounds on the response time, using the moments of the distribution of simple stochastic systems. We prove that the distribution (and hence the bounds) is uniquely defined given its moments. We provide optimal bounds for the response time over all distributions having a pair of these moments. We explain how to symbolically compute in polynomial time any moment of the distribution of response times using adequately-defined semirings. This allows us to compute optimal bounds in parametric models and to reduce complexity for computing optimal bounds in hierarchical models. These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.