In the literature, two series of models have been proposed to address prediction problems including classification and regression. Simple models, such as generalized linear models, have ordinary performance but strong interpretability on a set of simple features. The other series, including tree-based models, organize numerical, categorical and high dimensional features into a comprehensive structure with rich interpretable information in the data. In this paper, we propose a novel Discriminative Pattern-based Prediction framework (DPPred) to accomplish the prediction tasks by taking their advantages of both effectiveness and interpretability. Specifically, DPPred adopts the concise discriminative patterns that are on the prefix paths from the root to leaf nodes in the tree-based models. DPPred selects a limited number of the useful discriminative patterns by searching for the most effective pattern combination to fit generalized linear models. Extensive experiments show that in many scenarios, DPPred provides competitive accuracy with the state-of-the-art as well as the valuable interpretability for developers and experts. In particular, taking a clinical application dataset as a case study, our DPPred outperforms the baselines by using only 40 concise discriminative patterns out of a potentially exponentially large set of patterns.

We present the EKNOT system that automatically discovers major events from online news articles, connects each event to its discussion in Twitter, and provides a comprehensive summary of the events from both news media and social media's point of view. EKNOT takes a time period as input and outputs a complete picture of the events within the given time range along with the public opinions. For each event, EKNOT provides multi-dimensional summaries: a) a summary from news for an objective description; b) a summary from tweets containing opinions/sentiments; c) an entity graph which illustrates the major players involved and their correlations; d) the time span of the event; and e) an opinion (sentiment) distribution. Also, if a user is interested in a particular event, he/she can zoom into this event to investigate its aspects (sub-events) summarized in the same manner. EKNOT is built on real-time crawled news articles and tweets, allowing users to explore the dynamics of major events with minimal delays.

Pattern-based classification was originally proposed to improve the accuracy using selected frequent patterns, where many efforts were paid to prune a huge number of non-discriminative frequent patterns. On the other hand, tree-based models have shown strong abilities on many classification tasks since they can easily build high-order interactions between different features and also handle both numerical and categorical features as well as high dimensional features. By taking the advantage of both modeling methodologies, we propose a natural and effective way to resolve pattern-based classification by adopting discriminative patterns which are the prefix paths from root to nodes in tree-based models (e.g., random forest). Moreover, we further compress the number of discriminative patterns by selecting the most effective pattern combinations that fit into a generalized linear model. As a result, our discriminative pattern-based classification framework (DPClass) could perform as good as previous state-of-the-art algorithms, provide great interpretability by utilizing only very limited number of discriminative patterns, and predict new data extremely fast. More specifically, in our experiments, DPClass could gain even better accuracy by only using top-20 discriminative patterns. The framework so generated is very concise and highly explanatory to human experts.

A major event often has repercussions on both news media and microblogging sites such as Twitter. Reports from mainstream news agencies and discussions from Twitter complement each other to form a complete picture. An event can have multiple aspects (sub-events) describing it from multiple angles, each of which attracts opinions/comments posted on Twitter. Mining such reflections is interesting to both policy makers and ordinary people seeking information. In this paper, we propose a unified framework to mine multi-aspect reflections of news events in Twitter. We propose a novel and efficient dynamic hierarchical entity-aware event discovery model to learn news events and their multiple aspects. The aspects of an event are linked to their reflections in Twitter by a bootstrapped dataless classification scheme, which elegantly handles the challenges of selecting informative tweets under overwhelming noise and bridging the vocabularies of news and tweets. In addition, we demonstrate that our framework naturally generates an informative presentation of each event with entity graphs, time spans, news summaries and tweet highlights to facilitate user digestion.

When integrating information from multiple sources, it is common to encounter conflicting answers to the same question. Truth discovery is to infer the most accurate and complete integrated answers from conflicting sources. In some cases, there exist questions for which the true answers are excluded from the candidate answers provided by all sources. Without any prior knowledge, these questions, named no-truth questions, are difficult to be distinguished from the questions that have true answers, named has-truth questions. In particular, these no-truth questions degrade the precision of the answer integration system. We address such a challenge by introducing source quality, which is made up of three fine-grained measures: silent rate, false spoken rate and true spoken rate. By incorporating these three measures, we propose a probabilistic graphical model, which simultaneously infers truth as well as source quality without any a priori training involving ground truth answers. Moreover, since inferring this graphical model requires parameter tuning of the prior of truth, we propose an initialization scheme based upon a quantity named truth existence score, which synthesizes two indicators, namely, participation rate and consistency rate. Compared with existing methods, our method can effectively filter out no-truth questions, which results in more accurate source quality estimation. Consequently, our method provides more accurate and complete answers to both has-truth and no-truth questions. Experiments on three real-world datasets illustrate the notable advantage of our method over existing state-of-the-art truth discovery methods.

This paper instantly infers the gas consumption and pollution emission of vehicles traveling on a city's road network in a current time slot, using GPS trajectories from a sample of vehicles (e.g., taxicabs). The knowledge can be used to suggest cost-efficient driving routes as well as identifying road segments where gas has been wasted significantly. The instant estimation of the emissions from vehicles can enable pollution alerts and help diagnose the root cause of air pollution in the long run. In our method, we first compute the travel speed of each road segment using the GPS trajectories received recently. As many road segments are not traversed by trajectories (i.e., data sparsity), we propose a Travel Speed Estimation (TSE) model based on a context-aware matrix factorization approach. TSE leverages features learned from other data sources, e.g., map data and historical trajectories, to deal with the data sparsity problem. We then propose a Traffic Volume Inference (TVI) model to infer the number of vehicles passing each road segment per minute. TVI is an unsupervised Bayesian Network that incorporates multiple factors, such as travel speed, weather conditions and geographical features of a road. Given the travel speed and traffic volume of a road segment, gas consumption and emissions can be calculated based on existing environmental theories. We evaluate our method based on extensive experiments using GPS trajectories generated by over 32,000 taxis in Beijing over a period of two months. The results demonstrate the advantages of our method over baselines, validating the contribution of its components and finding interesting discoveries for the benefit of society.