Policy inference plays an essential role in the contextual bandit problem. In this paper, we use empirical likelihood to develop a Bayesian inference method for the joint analysis of multiple contextual bandit policies in finite sample regimes. The proposed inference method is robust to small sample sizes and is able to provide accurate uncertainty measurements for policy value evaluation. In addition, it allows for flexible inferences on policy comparison with full uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed inference method using Monte Carlo simulations and its application to an adolescent body mass index data set.

The density ratio of two probability distributions is one of the fundamental tools in mathematical and computational statistics and machine learning, and it has a variety of known applications. Therefore, density ratio estimation from finite samples is a very important task, but it is known to be unstable when the distributions are distant from each other. One approach to address this problem is density ratio estimation using incremental mixtures of the two distributions. We geometrically reinterpret existing methods for density ratio estimation based on incremental mixtures. We show that these methods can be regarded as iterating on the Riemannian manifold along a particular curve between the two probability distributions. Making use of the geometry of the manifold, we propose to consider incremental density ratio estimation along generalized geodesics on this manifold. To achieve such a method requires Monte Carlo sampling along geodesics via transformations of the two distributions. We show how to implement an iterative algorithm to sample along these geodesics and show how changing the distances along the geodesic affect the variance and accuracy of the estimation of the density ratio.

Score-based generative models are essential in various machine learning applications, with strong capabilities in generation quality. In particular, high-order derivatives (scores) of data density offer deep insights into data distributions, building on the proven effectiveness of first-order scores for modeling and generating synthetic data, unlocking new possibilities for applications. However, learning them typically requires complete data, which is often unavailable in domains such as healthcare and finance due to data corruption, acquisition constraints, or incomplete records. To tackle this challenge, we introduce MissScore, a novel framework for estimating high-order scores in the presence of missing data. We derive objective functions for estimating high-order scores under different missing data mechanisms and propose a new algorithm specifically designed to handle missing data effectively. Our empirical results demonstrate that MissScore accurately and efficiently learns the high-order scores from incomplete data and generates high-quality samples, resulting in strong performance across a range of downstream tasks.

Estimating treatment effects has numerous real-world applications in various fields, such as epidemiology and political science. While much attention has been devoted to addressing the challenge using fully observational data, there has been comparatively limited exploration of this issue in cases when the treatment is not directly observed. In this paper, we tackle this problem by developing a general variational framework, which is flexible to integrate with advanced neural network-based approaches, to identify the average dose-response function (ADRF) with the continuously valued error-contaminated treatment. Our approach begins with the formulation of a probabilistic data generation model, treating the unobserved treatment as a latent variable. In this model, we leverage a learnable density estimation neural network to derive its prior distribution conditioned on covariates. This module also doubles as a generalized propensity score estimator, effectively mitigating selection bias arising from observed confounding variables. Subsequently, we calculate the posterior distribution of the treatment, taking into account the observed measurement and outcome. To mitigate the impact of treatment error, we introduce a re-parametrized treatment value, replacing the error-affected one, to make more accurate predictions regarding the outcome. To demonstrate the adaptability of our framework, we incorporate two state-of-the-art ADRF estimation methods and rigorously assess its efficacy through extensive simulations and experiments using semi-synthetic data.

State-of-the-art causal discovery methods usually assume that the observational data is complete. However, the missing data problem is pervasive in many practical scenarios such as clinical trials, economics, and biology. One straightforward way to address the missing data problem is first to impute the data using off-the-shelf imputation methods and then apply existing causal discovery methods. However, such a two-step method may suffer from suboptimality, as the imputation algorithm may introduce bias for modeling the underlying data distribution. In this paper, we develop a general method, which we call MissDAG, to perform causal discovery from data with incomplete observations. Focusing mainly on the assumptions of ignorable missingness and the identifiable additive noise models (ANMs), MissDAG maximizes the expected likelihood of the visible part of observations under the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. In the E-step, in cases where computing the posterior distributions of parameters in closed-form is not feasible, Monte Carlo EM is leveraged to approximate the likelihood. In the M-step, MissDAG leverages the density transformation to model the noise distributions with simpler and specific formulations by virtue of the ANMs and uses a likelihood-based causal discovery algorithm with directed acyclic graph constraint. We demonstrate the flexibility of MissDAG for incorporating various causal discovery algorithms and its efficacy through extensive simulations and real data experiments.

This paper studies outlier detection and robust estimation for nonparametric regression problems. We propose to include a subject-specific mean shift parameter for each data point such that a nonzero parameter will identify its corresponding data point as an outlier. We adopt a regularization approach by imposing a roughness penalty on the regression function and a shrinkage penalty on the mean shift parameter. An efficient algorithm has been proposed to solve the double penalized regression problem. We discuss a data-driven simultaneous choice of two regularization parameters based on a combination of generalized cross validation and modified Bayesian information criterion. We show that the proposed method can consistently detect the outliers. In addition, we obtain minimax-optimal convergence rates for both the regression function and the mean shift parameter under regularity conditions. The estimation procedure is shown to enjoy the oracle property in the sense that the convergence rates agree with the minimax-optimal rates when the outliers (or regression function) are known in advance. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method has desired performance in identifying outliers under different scenarios.