Modeling the dynamics of complex real-world systems from temporal snapshot data is crucial for understanding phenomena such as gene regulation, climate change, and financial market fluctuations. Researchers have recently proposed a few methods based either on the Schroedinger Bridge or Flow Matching to tackle this problem, but these approaches remain limited in their ability to effectively combine data from multiple time points and different experimental settings. This integration is essential in real-world scenarios where observations from certain combinations of time points and experimental conditions are missing, either because of experimental costs or sensory failure. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method named Multi-Marginal Flow Matching (MMFM). MMFM first constructs a flow using smooth spline-based interpolation across time points and conditions and regresses it with a neural network using the classifier-free guided Flow Matching framework. This framework allows for the sharing of contextual information about the dynamics across multiple trajectories. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets, including a recent single-cell genomics data set with around a hundred chemical perturbations across time points. Our results show that MMFM significantly outperforms existing methods at imputing data at missing time points.

High-content perturbation experiments allow scientists to probe biomolecular systems at unprecedented resolution, but experimental and analysis costs pose significant barriers to widespread adoption. Machine learning has the potential to guide efficient exploration of the perturbation space and extract novel insights from these data. However, current approaches neglect the semantic richness of the relevant biology, and their objectives are misaligned with downstream biological analyses. In this paper, we hypothesize that large language models (LLMs) present a natural medium for representing complex biological relationships and rationalizing experimental outcomes. We propose PerturbQA, a benchmark for structured reasoning over perturbation experiments. Unlike current benchmarks that primarily interrogate existing knowledge, PerturbQA is inspired by open problems in perturbation modeling: prediction of differential expression and change of direction for unseen perturbations, and gene set enrichment. We evaluate state-of-the-art machine learning and statistical approaches for modeling perturbations, as well as standard LLM reasoning strategies, and we find that current methods perform poorly on PerturbQA. As a proof of feasibility, we introduce Summer (SUMMarize, retrievE, and answeR, a simple, domain-informed LLM framework that matches or exceeds the current state-of-the-art. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/genentech/PerturbQA.

The study of cells and their responses to genetic or chemical perturbations promises to accelerate the discovery of therapeutics targets. However, designing adequate and insightful models for such data is difficult because the response of a cell to perturbations essentially depends on contextual covariates (e.g., genetic background or type of the cell). There is therefore a need for models that can identify interactions between drugs and contextual covariates. This is crucial for discovering therapeutics targets, as such interactions may reveal drugs that affect certain cell types but not others. We tackle this problem with a novel Factorized Causal Representation (FCR) learning method, an identifiable deep generative model that reveals causal structure in single-cell perturbation data from several cell lines. FCR learns multiple cellular representations that are disentangled, comprised of covariate-specific (Z_x), treatment-specific (Z_t) and interaction-specific (Z_tx) representations. Based on recent advances of non-linear ICA theory, we prove the component-wise identifiability of Z_tx and block-wise identifiability of Z_t and Z_x. Then, we present our implementation of FCR, and empirically demonstrate that FCR outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in various tasks across four single-cell datasets.

The continued scaling of genetic perturbation technologies combined with high-dimensional assays such as cellular microscopy and RNA-sequencing has enabled genome-scale reverse-genetics experiments that go beyond single-endpoint measurements of growth or lethality. Datasets emerging from these experiments can be combined to construct perturbative "maps of biology", in which readouts from various manipulations (e.g., CRISPR-Cas9 knockout, CRISPRi knockdown, compound treatment) are placed in unified, relatable embedding spaces allowing for the generation of genome-scale sets of pairwise comparisons. These maps of biology capture known biological relationships and uncover new associations which can be used for downstream discovery tasks. Construction of these maps involves many technical choices in both experimental and computational protocols, motivating the design of benchmark procedures to evaluate map quality in a systematic, unbiased manner. Here, we (1) establish a standardized terminology for the steps involved in perturbative map building, (2) introduce key classes of benchmarks to assess the quality of such maps, (3) construct 18 maps from four genome-scale datasets employing different cell types, perturbation technologies, and data readout modalities, (4) generate benchmark metrics for the constructed maps and investigate the reasons for performance variations, and (5) demonstrate utility of these maps to discover new biology by suggesting roles for two largely uncharacterized genes.

Learning causal relationships between variables is a well-studied problem in statistics, with many important applications in science. However, modeling real-world systems remain challenging, as most existing algorithms assume that the underlying causal graph is acyclic. While this is a convenient framework for developing theoretical developments about causal reasoning and inference, the underlying modeling assumption is likely to be violated in real systems, because feedback loops are common (e.g., in biological systems). Although a few methods search for cyclic causal models, they usually rely on some form of linearity, which is also limiting, or lack a clear underlying probabilistic model. In this work, we propose a novel framework for learning nonlinear cyclic causal graphical models from interventional data, called NODAGS-Flow. We perform inference via direct likelihood optimization, employing techniques from residual normalizing flows for likelihood estimation. Through synthetic experiments and an application to single-cell high-content perturbation screening data, we show significant performance improvements with our approach compared to state-of-the-art methods with respect to structure recovery and predictive performance.

A common theme in causal inference is learning causal relationships between observed variables, also known as causal discovery. This is usually a daunting task, given the large number of candidate causal graphs and the combinatorial nature of the search space. Perhaps for this reason, most research has so far focused on relatively small causal graphs, with up to hundreds of nodes. However, recent advances in fields like biology enable generating experimental data sets with thousands of interventions followed by rich profiling of thousands of variables, raising the opportunity and urgent need for large causal graph models. Here, we introduce the notion of factor directed acyclic graphs ($f$-DAGs) as a way to restrict the search space to non-linear low-rank causal interaction models. Combining this novel structural assumption with recent advances that bridge the gap between causal discovery and continuous optimization, we achieve causal discovery on thousands of variables. Additionally, as a model for the impact of statistical noise on this estimation procedure, we study a model of edge perturbations of the $f$-DAG skeleton based on random graphs and quantify the effect of such perturbations on the $f$-DAG rank. This theoretical analysis suggests that the set of candidate $f$-DAGs is much smaller than the whole DAG space and thus may be more suitable as a search space in the high-dimensional regime where the underlying skeleton is hard to assess. We propose Differentiable Causal Discovery of Factor Graphs (DCD-FG), a scalable implementation of $f$-DAG constrained causal discovery for high-dimensional interventional data. DCD-FG uses a Gaussian non-linear low-rank structural equation model and shows significant improvements compared to state-of-the-art methods in both simulations as well as a recent large-scale single-cell RNA sequencing data set with hundreds of genetic interventions.

Causal models are fundamental tools to understand complex systems and predict the effect of interventions on such systems. However, despite an extensive literature in the population (or infinite-sample) case, where distributions are assumed to be known, little is known about the statistical rates of convergence of various methods, even for the simplest models. In this work, allowing for cycles, we study linear structural equations models with homoscedastic Gaussian noise and in the presence of interventions that make the model identifiable. More specifically, we present statistical rates of estimation for both the LLC estimator introduced by Hyttinen, Eberhardt and Hoyer and a novel two-step penalized maximum likelihood estimator. We establish asymptotic near minimax optimality for the maximum likelihood estimator over a class of sparse causal graphs in the case of near-optimally chosen interventions. Moreover, we find evidence for practical advantages of this estimator compared to LLC in synthetic numerical experiments.

We propose a new method to estimate Wasserstein distances and optimal transport plans between two probability distributions from samples in high dimension. Unlike plug-in rules that simply replace the true distributions by their empirical counterparts, our method promotes couplings with low transport rank, a new structural assumption that is similar to the nonnegative rank of a matrix. Regularizing based on this assumption leads to drastic improvements on high-dimensional data for various tasks, including domain adaptation in single-cell RNA sequencing data. These findings are supported by a theoretical analysis that indicates that the transport rank is key in overcoming the curse of dimensionality inherent to data-driven optimal transport.