Learning representations through deep generative modeling is a powerful approach for dynamical modeling to discover the most simplified and compressed underlying description of the data, to then use it for other tasks such as prediction. Most learning tasks have intrinsic symmetries, i.e., the input transformations leave the output unchanged, or the output undergoes a similar transformation. The learning process is, however, usually uninformed of these symmetries. Therefore, the learned representations for individually transformed inputs may not be meaningfully related. In this paper, we propose an SO(3) equivariant deep dynamical model (EqDDM) for motion prediction that learns a structured representation of the input space in the sense that the embedding varies with symmetry transformations. EqDDM is equipped with equivariant networks to parameterize the state-space emission and transition models. We demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the proposed model on various motion data.

We propose an epidemic analysis framework for the outbreak prediction in the livestock industry, focusing on the study of the most costly and viral infectious disease in the swine industry – the PRRS virus. Using this framework, we can predict the PRRS outbreak in all farms of a swine production system by capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of infection transmission based on the intra-farm pig-level virus transmission dynamics, and inter-farm pig shipment network. We simulate a PRRS infection epidemic based on the shipment network and the SEIR epidemic model using the statistics extracted from real data provided by the swine industry. We develop a hierarchical factorized deep generative model that approximates high dimensional data by a product between time-dependent weights and spatially dependent low dimensional factors to perform per farm time series prediction. The prediction results demonstrate the ability of the model in forecasting the virus spread progression with average error of NRMSE = 2.5%.

We introduce deep switching auto-regressive factorization (DSARF), a deep generative model for spatio-temporal data with the capability to unravel recurring patterns in the data and perform robust short- and long-term predictions. Similar to other factor analysis methods, DSARF approximates high dimensional data by a product between time dependent weights and spatially dependent factors. These weights and factors are in turn represented in terms of lower dimensional latent variables that are inferred using stochastic variational inference. DSARF is different from the state-of-the-art techniques in that it parameterizes the weights in terms of a deep switching vector auto-regressive likelihood governed with a Markovian prior, which is able to capture the non-linear inter-dependencies among weights to characterize multimodal temporal dynamics. This results in a flexible hierarchical deep generative factor analysis model that can be extended to (i) provide a collection of potentially interpretable states abstracted from the process dynamics, and (ii) perform short- and long-term vector time series prediction in a complex multi-relational setting. Our extensive experiments, which include simulated data and real data from a wide range of applications such as climate change, weather forecasting, traffic, infectious disease spread and nonlinear physical systems attest the superior performance of DSARF in terms of long- and short-term prediction error, when compared with the state-of-the-art methods.