Bias evaluation is fundamental to trustworthy AI, both in terms of checking data quality and in terms of checking the outputs of AI systems.In testing data quality, for example, one may study the distance of a given dataset, viewed as a distribution, to a given ground-truth reference dataset.However, classical metrics, such as the Total Variation and the Wasserstein distances, are known to have high sample complexities and, therefore, may fail to provide a meaningful distinction in many practical scenarios.In this paper, we propose a new notion of distance, the Maximum Subgroup Discrepancy (MSD).In this metric, two distributions are close if, roughly, discrepancies are low for all feature subgroups.While the number of subgroups may be exponential, we show that the sample complexity is linear in the number of features, thus making it feasible for practical applications.Moreover, we provide a practical algorithm for evaluating the distance based on Mixedinteger optimization (MIO).We also note that the proposed distance is easily interpretable, thus providing clearer paths to fixing the biases once they have been identified.Finally, we describe a natural general bias detection framework, termed MSDD distances, and show that MSD aligns well with this framework.We empirically evaluate MSD by comparing it with other metrics and by demonstrating the above properties of MSD on real-world datasets.

There is a well known intrinsic trade-off between the fairness of a representation and the performance of classifiers derived from the representation. In this paper we propose a new method to compute the optimal Pareto front of this trade off. In contrast to the existing methods, this approach does not require the training of complex fair representation models. Our approach is derived through three main steps: We analyze fair representations theoretically, and derive several structural properties of optimal representations. We then show that these properties enable a reduction of the computation of the Pareto Front to a compact discrete problem. Finally, we show that these compact approximating problems can be efficiently solved via off-the shelf concave-convex programming methods. In addition to representations, we show that the new methods may also be used to directly compute the Pareto front of fair classification problems. Moreover, the proposed methods may be used with any concave performance measure. This is in contrast to the existing reduction approaches, developed recently in fair classification, which rely explicitly on the structure of the non-differentiable accuracy measure, and are thus unlikely to be extendable. The approach was evaluated on several real world benchmark datasets and compares favorably to a number of recent state of the art fair representation and classification methods.

We propose a new approach to non-parametric density estimation that is based on regularizing a Sobolev norm of the density. This method is statistically consistent, and makes the inductive bias of the model clear and interpretable. While there is no closed analytic form for the associated kernel, we show that one can approximate it using sampling. The optimization problem needed to determine the density is non-convex, and standard gradient methods do not perform well. However, we show that with an appropriate initialization and using natural gradients, one can obtain well performing solutions. Finally, while the approach provides pre-densities (i.e. not necessarily integrating to 1), which prevents the use of log-likelihood for cross validation, we show that one can instead adapt Fisher divergence based score matching methods for this task. We evaluate the resulting method on the comprehensive recent anomaly detection benchmark suite, ADBench, and find that it ranks second best, among more than 15 algorithms.

The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the most widely used statistical models for sequential data analysis. One of the key reasons for this versatility is the ability of HMM to deal with missing data. However, standard HMM learning algorithms rely crucially on the assumption that the positions of the missing observations *within the observation sequence* are known. In the natural sciences, where this assumption is often violated, special variants of HMM, commonly known as Silent-state HMMs (SHMMs), are used. Despite their widespread use, these algorithms strongly rely on specific structural assumptions of the underlying chain, such as acyclicity, thus limiting the applicability of these methods. Moreover, even in the acyclic case, it has been shown that these methods can lead to poor reconstruction. In this paper we consider the general problem of learning an HMM from data with unknown missing observation locations. We provide reconstruction algorithms that do not require any assumptions about the structure of the underlying chain, and can also be used with limited prior knowledge, unlike SHMM. We evaluate and compare the algorithms in a variety of scenarios, measuring their reconstruction precision, and robustness under model miss-specification. Notably, we show that under proper specifications one can reconstruct the process dynamics as well as if the missing observations positions were known.

We consider the dynamic linear regression problem, where the predictor vector may vary with time. This problem can be modeled as a linear dynamical system, with non-constant observation operator, where the parameters that need to be learned are the variance of both the process noise and the observation noise. While variance estimation for dynamic regression is a natural problem, with a variety of applications, existing approaches to this problem either lack guarantees altogether, or only have asymptotic guarantees without explicit rates. In particular, existing literature does not provide any clues to the following fundamental question: In terms of data characteristics, what does the convergence rate depend on? In this paper we study the global system operator -- the operator that maps the noise vectors to the output. We obtain estimates on its spectrum, and as a result derive the first known variance estimators with finite sample complexity guarantees. The proposed bounds depend on the shape of a certain spectrum related to the system operator, and thus provide the first known explicit geometric parameter of the data that can be used to bound estimation errors. In addition, the results hold for arbitrary sub Gaussian distributions of noise terms. We evaluate the approach on synthetic and real-world benchmarks.

In this paper we introduce a new approach to topic modelling that scales to large datasets by using a compact representation of the data and by leveraging the GPU architecture. In this approach, topics are learned directly from the co-occurrence data of the corpus. In particular, we introduce a novel mixture model which we term the Full Dependence Mixture (FDM) model. FDMs model second moment under general generative assumptions on the data. While there is previous work on topic modeling using second moments, we develop a direct stochastic optimization procedure for fitting an FDM with a single Kullback Leibler objective. Moment methods in general have the benefit that an iteration no longer needs to scale with the size of the corpus. Our approach allows us to leverage standard optimizers and GPUs for the problem of topic modeling. In particular, we evaluate the approach on two large datasets, NeurIPS papers and a Twitter corpus, with a large number of topics, and show that the approach performs comparably or better than the standard benchmarks.

The Kalman filter is a key tool for time-series forecasting and analysis. We show that the dependence of a prediction of Kalman filter on the past is decaying exponentially, whenever the process noise is non-degenerate. Therefore, Kalman filter may be approximated by regression on a few recent observations. Surprisingly, we also show that having some process noise is essential for the exponential decay. With no process noise, it may happen that the forecast depends on all of the past uniformly, which makes forecasting more difficult.Based on this insight, we devise an on-line algorithm for improper learning of a linear dynamical system (LDS), which considers only a few most recent observations. We use our decay results to provide the first regret bounds w.r.t. to Kalman filters within learning an LDS. That is, we compare the results of our algorithm to the best, in hindsight, Kalman filter for a given signal. Also, the algorithm is practical: its per-update run-time is linear in the regression depth.

Suppose that we are given a time series where consecutive samples are believed to come from a probabilistic source, that the source changes from time to time and that the total number of sources is fixed. Our objective is to estimate the distributions of the sources. A standard approach to this problem is to model the data as a hidden Markov model (HMM). However, since the data often lacks the Markov or the stationarity properties of an HMM, one can ask whether this approach is still suitable or perhaps another approach is required. In this paper, we show that a maximum likelihood HMM estimator can be used to approximate the source distributions in a much larger class of models than HMMs. Specifically, we propose a natural and fairly general non-stationary model of the data, where the only restriction is that the sources do not change too often. Our main result shows that for this model, a maximum-likelihood HMM estimator produces the correct second moment of the data, and the results can be extended to higher moments.

We present a new algorithm for community detection. The algorithm uses random walks to embed the graph in a space of measures, after which a modification of $k$-means in that space is applied. The algorithm is therefore fast and easily parallelizable. We evaluate the algorithm on standard random graph benchmarks, including some overlapping community benchmarks, and find its performance to be better or at least as good as previously known algorithms. We also prove a linear time (in number of edges) guarantee for the algorithm on a $p,q$-stochastic block model with where $p \geq c\cdot N^{-\half + \epsilon}$ and $p-q \geq c' \sqrt{p N^{-\half + \epsilon} \log N}$.