We investigate variability overweighting, a previously undocumented bias in line graphs, where estimates of average value are biased toward areas of higher variability in that line. We found this effect across two preregistered experiments with 140 and 420 participants. These experiments also show that the bias is reduced when using a dot encoding of the same series. We can model the bias with the average of the data series and the average of the points drawn along the line. This bias might arise because higher variability leads to stronger weighting in the average calculation, either due to the longer line segments (even though those segments contain the same number of data values) or line segments with higher variability being otherwise more visually salient. Understanding and predicting this bias is important for visualization design guidelines, recommendation systems, and tool builders, as the bias can adversely affect estimates of averages and trends.

Abstract Visualization system designers must decide whether and how to aggregate data by default. Aggregating distributional information in a single summary mark like a mean or sum simplifies interpretation, but may lead untrained users to overlook distributional features. We ask, How are the conclusions drawn by untrained visualization users affected by aggregation strategy? We present two controlled experiments comparing generalizations of a population that untrained users made from visualizations that summarized either a 1000 record or 50 record sample with either single mean summary mark, a disaggregated view with one mark per observation or a view overlaying a mean summary mark atop a disaggregated view. While we observe no reliable effect of aggregation strategy on generalization accuracy at either sample size, users of purely disaggregated views were slightly less confident in their generalizations on average than users whose views show a single mean summary mark, and less likely to engage in dichotomous thinking about effects as either present or absent. Comparing results from 1000 record to 50 record data set, we see a considerably larger decrease in the number of generalizations produced and reported confidence in generalizations among viewers who saw disaggregated data relative to those who saw only mean summary marks.

BACKGROUND: We introduce BPG, a framework for generating publication-quality, highly-customizable plots in the R statistical environment. RESULTS: This open-source package includes multiple methods of displaying high-dimensional datasets and facilitates generation of complex multi-panel figures, making it suitable for complex datasets. A web-based interactive tool allows online figure customization, from which R code can be downloaded for integration with computational pipelines. CONCLUSION: BPG provides a new approach for linking interactive and scripted data visualization and is available at http://labs.oicr.on.ca/boutros-lab/software/bpg or via CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/BoutrosLab.plotting.general.

Animated representations of outcomes drawn from distributions (hypothetical outcome plots, or HOPs) are used in the media and other public venues to communicate uncertainty. HOPs greatly improve multivariate probability estimation over conventional static uncertainty visualizations and leverage the ability of the visual system to quickly, accurately, and automatically process the summary statistical properties of ensembles. However, it is unclear how well HOPs support applied tasks resembling real world judgments posed in uncertainty communication. We identify and motivate an appropriate task to investigate realistic judgments of uncertainty in the public domain through a qualitative analysis of uncertainty visualizations in the news. We contribute two crowdsourced experiments comparing the effectiveness of HOPs, error bars, and line ensembles for supporting perceptual decision-making from visualized uncertainty. Participants infer which of two possible underlying trends is more likely to have produced a sample of time series data by referencing uncertainty visualizations which depict the two trends with variability due to sampling error. By modeling each participant's accuracy as a function of the level of evidence presented over many repeated judgments, we find that observers are able to correctly infer the underlying trend in samples conveying a lower level of evidence when using HOPs rather than static aggregate uncertainty visualizations as a decision aid. Modeling approaches like ours contribute theoretically grounded and richly descriptive accounts of user perceptions to visualization evaluation.

It can be difficult to understand physical measurements (e.g., 28 lb, 600 gallons) that appear in news stories, data reports, and other documents. We develop tools that automatically re-express unfamiliar measurements using the measurements of familiar objects. Our work makes three contributions: (1) we identify effectiveness criteria for objects used in concrete measurement re-expressions; (2) we operationalize these criteria in a scalable method for mining a large dataset of concrete familiar objects with their physical dimensions from Amazon and Wikipedia; and (3) we develop automated concrete re-expression tools that implement three common re-expression strategies (adding familiar context, reunitization and proportional analogy) as energy minimization algorithms. Crowdsourced evaluations of our tools indicate that people find news articles with re-expressions more helpful and re- expressions help them to better estimate new measurements.

BACKGROUND: Tumour samples containing distinct sub-populations of cancer and normal cells present challenges in the development of reproducible biomarkers, as these biomarkers are based on bulk signals from mixed tumour profiles. ISOpure is the only mRNA computational purification method to date that does not require a paired tumour-normal sample, provides a personalized cancer profile for each patient, and has been tested on clinical data. Replacing mixed tumour profiles with ISOpure-preprocessed cancer profiles led to better prognostic gene signatures for lung and prostate cancer. RESULTS: To simplify the integration of ISOpure into standard R-based bioinformatics analysis pipelines, the algorithm has been implemented as an R package. The ISOpureR package performs analogously to the original code in estimating the fraction of cancer cells and the patient cancer mRNA abundance profile from tumour samples in four cancer datasets. CONCLUSIONS: The ISOpureR package estimates the fraction of cancer cells and personalized patient cancer mRNA abundance profile from a mixed tumour profile. This open-source R implementation enables integration into existing computational pipelines, as well as easy testing, modification and extension of the model.