Several previous approaches attempted to predict bursty topics on Twitter. Such approaches have usually reported that the time information (e.g. the topic popularity over time) of hashtag topics contribute the most to the prediction of bursty topics. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to use time features to predict bursty topics on Twitter. We model the popularity of topics as density curves described by the density function of a beta distribution with different parameters. We then propose various approaches to predict/classify the bursty topics by estimating the parameters of topics, using estimators such as Gradient Decent or Likelihood Maximization. In our experiments, we show that the estimated parameters of topics have a positive effect on classifying bursty topics. In particular, our estimators when combined together improve the bursty topic classification by 6.9 in terms of micro F1 compared to a baseline classifier using hashtag content features.

Topic modelling approaches help scholars to examine the topics discussed in a corpus. Due to the popularity of Twitter, two distinct methods have been proposed to accommodate the brevity of tweets: the tweet pooling method and Twitter LDA. Both of these methods demonstrate a higher performance in producing more interpretable topics than the standard Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) when applied on tweets. However, while various metrics have been proposed to estimate the coherence of the generated topics from tweets, the coherence of the top ranked topics, those that are most likely to be examined by users, has not been investigated. In addition, the effect of the number of generated topics K on the topic coherence scores has not been studied. In this paper, we conduct large-scale experiments using three topic modelling approaches over two Twitter datasets, and apply a state-of-the-art coherence metric to study the coherence of the top ranked topics and how K affects such coherence. Inspired by ranking metrics such as precision at n, we use coherence at n to assess the coherence of a topic model. To verify our results, we conduct a pairwise user study to obtain human preferences over topics. Our findings are threefold: we find evidence that Twitter LDA outperforms both LDA and the tweet pooling method because the top ranked topics it generates have more coherence; we demonstrate that a larger number of topics (K) helps to generate topics with more coherence; and finally, we show that coherence at n is more effective when evaluating the coherence of a topic model than the average coherence score.

Scholars often seek to understand topics discussed on Twitter using topic modelling approaches. Several coherence metrics have been proposed for evaluating the coherence of the topics generated by these approaches, including the pre-calculated Pointwise Mutual Information (PMI) of word pairs and the Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) word representation vectors. As Twitter data contains abbreviations and a number of peculiarities (e.g. hashtags), it can be challenging to train effective PMI data or LSA word representation. Recently, Word Embedding (WE) has emerged as a particularly effective approach for capturing the similarity among words. Hence, in this paper, we propose new Word Embedding-based topic coherence metrics. To determine the usefulness of these new metrics, we compare them with the previous PMI/LSA-based metrics. We also conduct a large-scale crowdsourced user study to determine whether the new Word Embedding-based metrics better align with human preferences. Using two Twitter datasets, our results show that the WE-based metrics can capture the coherence of topics in tweets more robustly and efficiently than the PMI/LSA-based ones.

In the recent Scottish Independence Referendum (hereafter, IndyRef), Twitter offered a broad platform for people to express their opinions, with millions of IndyRef tweets posted over the campaign period. In this paper, we aim to classify people's voting intentions by the content of their tweets---their short messages communicated on Twitter. By observing tweets related to the IndyRef, we find that people not only discussed the vote, but raised topics related to an independent Scotland including oil reserves, currency, nuclear weapons, and national debt. We show that the views communicated on these topics can inform us of the individuals' voting intentions ("Yes"--in favour of Independence vs. "No"--Opposed). In particular, we argue that an accurate classifier can be designed by leveraging the differences in the features' usage across different topics related to voting intentions. We demonstrate improvements upon a Naive Bayesian classifier using the topics enrichment method. Our new classifier identifies the closest topic for each unseen tweet, based on those topics identified in the training data. Our experiments show that our Topics-Based Naive Bayesian classifier improves accuracy by 7.8% over the classical Naive Bayesian baseline.