Graph structured data are abundant in the real world. Among different graph types, directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are of particular interest to machine learning researchers, as many machine learning models are realized as computations on DAGs, including neural networks and Bayesian networks. In this paper, we study deep generative models for DAGs, and propose a novel DAG variational autoencoder (D-VAE). To encode DAGs into the latent space, we leverage graph neural networks. We propose an asynchronous message passing scheme that allows encoding the computations on DAGs, rather than using existing simultaneous message passing schemes to encode local graph structures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed DVAE through two tasks: neural architecture search and Bayesian network structure learning. Experiments show that our model not only generates novel and valid DAGs, but also produces a smooth latent space that facilitates searching for DAGs with better performance through Bayesian optimization.

This paper addresses the hyperlink prediction problem in hypernetworks. Different from the traditional link prediction problem where only pairwise relations are considered as links, our task here is to predict the linkage of multiple nodes, i.e., hyperlink. Each hyperlink is a set of an arbitrary number of nodes which together form a multiway relationship. Hyperlink prediction is challenging---since the cardinality of a hyperlink is variable, existing classifiers based on a fixed number of input features become infeasible. Heuristic methods, such as the common neighbors and Katz index, do not work for hyperlink prediction, since they are restricted to pairwise similarities. In this paper, we formally define the hyperlink prediction problem, and propose a new algorithm called Coordinated Matrix Minimization (CMM), which alternately performs nonnegative matrix factorization and least square matching in the vertex adjacency space of the hypernetwork, in order to infer a subset of candidate hyperlinks that are most suitable to fill the training hypernetwork. We evaluate CMM on two novel tasks: predicting recipes of Chinese food, and finding missing reactions of metabolic networks. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our method over many seemingly promising baselines.

Neural networks are typically designed to deal with data in tensor forms. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network architecture accepting graphs of arbitrary structure. Given a dataset containing graphs in the form of (G,y) where G is a graph and y is its class, we aim to develop neural networks that read the graphs directly and learn a classification function. There are two main challenges: 1) how to extract useful features characterizing the rich information encoded in a graph for classification purpose, and 2) how to sequentially read a graph in a meaningful and consistent order. To address the first challenge, we design a localized graph convolution model and show its connection with two graph kernels. To address the second challenge, we design a novel SortPooling layer which sorts graph vertices in a consistent order so that traditional neural networks can be trained on the graphs. Experiments on benchmark graph classification datasets demonstrate that the proposed architecture achieves highly competitive performance with state-of-the-art graph kernels and other graph neural network methods. Moreover, the architecture allows end-to-end gradient-based training with original graphs, without the need to first transform graphs into vectors.

With increased use of electronic medical records (EMRs), data mining on medical data has great potential to improve the quality of hospital treatment and increase the survival rate of patients. Early readmission prediction enables early intervention, which is essential to preventing serious or life-threatening events, and act as a substantial contributor to reduce healthcare costs. Existing works on predicting readmission often focus on certain vital signs and diseases by extracting statistical features. They also fail to consider skewness of class labels in medical data and different costs of misclassification errors. In this paper, we recur to the merits of convolutional neural networks (CNN) to automatically learn features from time series of vital sign, and categorical feature embedding to effectively encode feature vectors with heterogeneous clinical features, such as demographics, hospitalization history, vital signs, and laboratory tests. Then, both learnt features via CNN and statistical features via feature embedding are fed into a multilayer perceptron (MLP) for prediction. We use a cost-sensitive formulation to train MLP during prediction to tackle the imbalance and skewness challenge. We validate the proposed approach on two real medical datasets from Barnes-Jewish Hospital, and all data is taken from historical EMR databases and reflects the kinds of data that would realistically be available at the clinical prediction system in hospitals. We find that early prediction of readmission is possible and when compared with state-of-the-art existing methods used by hospitals, our methods perform significantly better. For example, using the general hospital wards data for 30-day readmission prediction, the area under the curve (AUC) for the proposed model was 0.70, significantly higher than all the baseline methods. Based on these results, a system is being deployed in hospital settings with the proposed forecasting algorithms to support treatment.

Additive tree models (ATMs) are widely used for data mining and machine learning. Important examples of ATMs include random forest, adaboost (with decision trees as weak learners), and gradient boosted trees, and they are often referred to as the best off-the-shelf classifiers. Though capable of attaining high accuracy, ATMs are not well interpretable in the sense that they do not provide actionable knowledge for a given instance. This greatly limits the potential of ATMs on many applications such as medical prediction and business intelligence, where practitioners need suggestions on actions that can lead to desirable outcomes with minimum costs.