Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Safely deploying machine learning models to the real world is often a challenging process. For example, models trained with data obtained from a specific geographic location tend to fail when queried with data obtained elsewhere, agents trained in a simulation can struggle to adapt when deployed in the real world or novel environments, and neural networks that are fit to a subset of the population might carry some selection bias into their decision process.In this work, we describe the problem of data shift from an information-theoretic perspective by (i) identifying and describing the different sources of error, (ii) comparing some of the most promising objectives explored in the recent domain generalization and fair classification literature. From our theoretical analysis and empirical evaluation, we conclude that the model selection procedure needs to be guided by careful considerations regarding the observed data, the factors used for correction, and the structure of the data-generating process.