Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) describe dynamical systems where deterministic flows, governed by a drift function, are superimposed with random fluctuations, dictated by a diffusion function. The accurate estimation (*or discovery*) of these functions from data is a central problem in machine learning, with wide application across the natural and social sciences. Yet current solutions either rely heavily on prior knowledge of the dynamics or involve intricate training procedures. We introduce FIM-SDE (Foundation Inference Model for SDEs), a pretrained recognition model that delivers accurate *in-context* (or zero-shot) estimation of the drift and diffusion functions of *low-dimensional* SDEs, from noisy time series data, and allows rapid *finetuning* to target datasets. Leveraging concepts from amortized inference and neural operators, we (pre)train FIM-SDE in a supervised fashion to map a large set of noisy, discretely observed SDE paths onto the space of drift and diffusion functions. We demonstrate that FIM-SDE achieves robust *in-context* function estimation across a wide range of synthetic and real-world processes --- from canonical SDE systems (*e.g*., double-well dynamics or weakly perturbed Lorenz attractors) to stock price recordings and oil-price and wind-speed fluctuations --- while matching the performance of symbolic, Gaussian process and Neural SDE baselines trained on the target datasets. When *finetuned* to the target processes, we show that FIM-SDE consistently outperforms all these baselines.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for *zero-shot inference* of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observations. Second, a neural recognition model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that *one and the same* (pretrained) recognition model can infer, *in a zero-shot fashion*, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are trained on the target datasets. Our pretrained model is available online.

Topic models and all their variants analyse text by learning meaningful representations through word co-occurrences. As pointed out by previous work, such models implicitly assume that the probability of a topic to be active and its proportion within each document are positively correlated. This correlation can be strongly detrimental in the case of documents created over time, simply because recent documents are likely better described by new and hence rare topics. In this work we leverage recent advances in neural variational inference and present an alternative neural approach to the dynamic Focused Topic Model. Indeed, we develop a neural model for topic evolution which exploits sequences of Bernoulli random variables in order to track the appearances of topics, thereby decoupling their activities from their proportions. We evaluate our model on three different datasets (the UN general debates, the collection of NeurIPS papers, and the ACL Anthology dataset) and show that it (i) outperforms state-of-the-art topic models in generalization tasks and (ii) performs comparably to them on prediction tasks, while employing roughly the same number of parameters, and converging about two times faster.

Ramses Sanchez, Lukas Conrads, Pascal Welke, Kostadin Cvejoski, Cesar Ojeda Marin. Proceedings of the 61st Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2023.

Modern society is heavily dependent on large scale client-server systems with applications ranging from Internet and Communication Services to sophisticated logistics and deployment of goods. To maintain and improve such a system, a careful study of client and server dynamics is needed – e.g. response/service times, aver-age number of clients at given times, etc. To this end, one traditionally relies, within the queuing theory formalism,on parametric analysis and explicit distribution forms.However, parametric forms limit the model’s expressiveness and could struggle on extensively large datasets. We propose a novel data-driven approach towards queuing systems: the Deep Generative Service Times. Our methodology delivers a flexible and scalable model for service and response times. We leverage the representation capabilities of Recurrent Marked Point Processes for the temporal dynamics of clients, as well as Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network techniques, to learn deep generative models which are able to represent complex conditional service time distributions. We provide extensive experimental analysis on both empirical and synthetic datasets, showing the effectiveness of the proposed models

The problem of uncovering different dynamical regimes is of pivotal importance in time series analysis. Switching dynamical systems provide a solution for modeling physical phenomena whose time series data exhibit different dynamical modes. In this work we propose a novel variational RNN model for switching dynamics allowing for both non-Markovian and nonlinear dynamical behavior between and within dynamic modes. Attention mechanisms are provided to inform the switching distribution. We evaluate our model on synthetic and empirical datasets of diverse nature and successfully uncover different dynamical regimes and predict the switching dynamics.

In this paper we ask for the main factors that determine a classifier's decision making process and uncover such factors by studying latent codes produced by auto-encoding frameworks. To deliver an explanation of a classifier's behaviour, we propose a method that provides series of examples highlighting semantic differences between the classifier's decisions. These examples are generated through interpolations in latent space. We introduce and formalize the notion of a semantic stochastic path, as a suitable stochastic process defined in feature (data) space via latent code interpolations. We then introduce the concept of semantic Lagrangians as a way to incorporate the desired classifier's behaviour and find that the solution of the associated variational problem allows for highlighting differences in the classifier decision. Very importantly, within our framework the classifier is used as a black-box, and only its evaluation is required.

Deep neural network models represent the state-of-the-art methodologies for natural language processing. Here we build on top of these methodologies to incorporate temporal information and model how review data changes with time. Specifically, we use the dynamic representations of recurrent point process models, which encode the history of how business or service reviews are received in time, to generate instantaneous language models with improved prediction capabilities. Simultaneously, our methodologies enhance the predictive power of our point process models by incorporating summarized review content representations. We provide recurrent network and temporal convolution solutions for modeling the review content. We deploy our methodologies in the context of recommender systems, effectively characterizing the change in preference and taste of users as time evolves. Source code is available at [1].