In many scenarios of practical interest, labeled data from a target distribution are scarce while labeled data from a related source distribution are abundant. One particular setting of interest arises when the target label space is a subset of the source label space, leading to the framework of partial domain adaptation (PDA). Typical approaches to PDA involve minimizing a domain alignment term and a weighted empirical loss on the source data, with the aim of transferring knowledge between domains. However, a theoretical basis for this procedure is lacking, and in particular, most existing weighting schemes are heuristic. In this work, we derive generalization bounds for the PDA problem based on partial optimal transport. These bounds corroborate the use of the partial Wasserstein distance as a domain alignment term, and lead to theoretically motivated explicit expressions for the empirical source loss weights. Inspired by these bounds, we devise a practical algorithm for PDA, termed WARMPOT. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that WARMPOT is competitive with recent approaches, and that our proposed weights improve on existing schemes.

Predictive models are often required to produce reliable predictions under statistical conditions that are not matched to the training data. A common type of training-testing mismatch is covariate shift, where the conditional distribution of the target variable given the input features remains fixed, while the marginal distribution of the inputs changes. Weighted conformal risk control (W-CRC) uses data collected during the training phase to convert point predictions into prediction sets with valid risk guarantees at test time despite the presence of a covariate shift. However, while W-CRC provides statistical reliability, its efficiency - measured by the size of the prediction sets - can only be assessed at test time. In this work, we relate the generalization properties of the base predictor to the efficiency of W-CRC under covariate shifts. Specifically, we derive a bound on the inefficiency of the W-CRC predictor that depends on algorithmic hyperparameters and task-specific quantities available at training time. This bound offers insights on relationships between the informativeness of the prediction sets, the extent of the covariate shift, and the size of the calibration and training sets. Experiments on fingerprinting-based localization validate the theoretical results.

We derive generic information-theoretic and PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds involving an arbitrary convex comparator function, which measures the discrepancy between the training loss and the population loss. The bounds hold under the assumption that the cumulant-generating function (CGF) of the comparator is upper-bounded by the corresponding CGF within a family of bounding distributions. We show that the tightest possible bound is obtained with the comparator being the convex conjugate of the CGF of the bounding distribution, also known as the Cramér function. This conclusion applies more broadly to generalization bounds with a similar structure. This confirms the near-optimality of known bounds for bounded and sub-Gaussian losses and leads to novel bounds under other bounding distributions.

The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal prediction (CP), which transforms an arbitrary base predictor into a set predictor with coverage guarantees. While CP certifies the predicted set to contain the target quantity with a user-defined tolerance, it does not provide control over the average size of the predicted sets, i.e., over the informativeness of the prediction. In this work, a theoretical connection is established between the generalization properties of the base predictor and the informativeness of the resulting CP prediction sets. To this end, an upper bound is derived on the expected size of the CP set predictor that builds on generalization error bounds for the base predictor. The derived upper bound provides insights into the dependence of the average size of the CP set predictor on the amount of calibration data, the target reliability, and the generalization performance of the base predictor. The theoretical insights are validated using simple numerical regression and classification tasks.

We consider online prediction of a binary sequence with expert advice. For this setting, we devise label-efficient forecasting algorithms, which use a selective sampling scheme that enables collecting much fewer labels than standard procedures. For the general case without a perfect expert, we prove best-of-both-worlds guarantees, demonstrating that the proposed forecasting algorithm always queries sufficiently many labels in the worst case to obtain optimal regret guarantees, while simultaneously querying much fewer labels in more benign settings. Specifically, for a scenario where one expert is strictly better than the others in expectation, we show that the label complexity of the label-efficient forecaster is roughly upper-bounded by the square root of the number of rounds. Finally, we present numerical experiments empirically showing that the normalized regret of the label-efficient forecaster can asymptotically match known minimax rates for pool-based active learning, suggesting it can optimally adapt to benign settings.

We present a new family of information-theoretic generalization bounds, in which the training loss and the population loss are compared through a jointly convex function. This function is upper-bounded in terms of the disintegrated, samplewise, evaluated conditional mutual information (CMI), an information measure that depends on the losses incurred by the selected hypothesis, rather than on the hypothesis itself, as is common in probably approximately correct (PAC)-Bayesian results. We demonstrate the generality of this framework by recovering and extending previously known information-theoretic bounds. Furthermore, using the evaluated CMI, we derive a samplewise, average version of Seeger's PAC-Bayesian bound, where the convex function is the binary KL divergence. In some scenarios, this novel bound results in a tighter characterization of the population loss of deep neural networks than previous bounds. Finally, we derive high-probability versions of some of these average bounds. We demonstrate the unifying nature of the evaluated CMI bounds by using them to recover average and high-probability generalization bounds for multiclass classification with finite Natarajan dimension.

Recent work has established that the conditional mutual information (CMI) framework of Steinke and Zakynthinou (2020) is expressive enough to capture generalization guarantees in terms of algorithmic stability, VC dimension, and related complexity measures for conventional learning (Harutyunyan et al., 2021, Haghifam et al., 2021). Hence, it provides a unified method for establishing generalization bounds. In meta learning, there has so far been a divide between information-theoretic results and results from classical learning theory. In this work, we take a first step toward bridging this divide. Specifically, we present novel generalization bounds for meta learning in terms of the evaluated CMI (e-CMI). To demonstrate the expressiveness of the e-CMI framework, we apply our bounds to a representation learning setting, with $n$ samples from $\hat n$ tasks parameterized by functions of the form $f_i \circ h$. Here, each $f_i \in \mathcal F$ is a task-specific function, and $h \in \mathcal H$ is the shared representation. For this setup, we show that the e-CMI framework yields a bound that scales as $\sqrt{ \mathcal C(\mathcal H)/(n\hat n) + \mathcal C(\mathcal F)/n} $, where $\mathcal C(\cdot)$ denotes a complexity measure of the hypothesis class. This scaling behavior coincides with the one reported in Tripuraneni et al. (2020) using Gaussian complexity.

We present a framework to derive bounds on the test loss of randomized learning algorithms for the case of bounded loss functions. Drawing from Steinke & Zakynthinou (2020), this framework leads to bounds that depend on the conditional information density between the output hypothesis and the choice of the training set, given a larger set of data samples from which the training set is formed. Furthermore, the bounds pertain to the average test loss as well as to its tail probability, both for the PAC-Bayesian and the single-draw settings. If the conditional information density is bounded uniformly in the size$n$of the training set, our bounds decay as 1/n, This is in contrast with the tail bounds involving conditional information measures available in the literature, which have a less benign 1/√n dependence. We demonstrate the usefulness of our tail bounds by showing that they lead to nonvacuous estimates of the test loss achievable with some neural network architectures trained on MNIST and Fashion-MNIST.

We present a general approach to deriving bounds on the generalization error of randomized learning algorithms. Our approach can be used to obtain bounds on the average generalization error as well as bounds on its tail probabilities, both for the case in which a new hypothesis is randomly generated every time the algorithm is used-as often assumed in the probably approximately correct (PAC)-Bayesian literature-and in the single-draw case, where the hypothesis is extracted only once.For this last scenario, we present a novel bound that is explicit in the central moments of the information density. The bound reveals that the higher the order of the information density moment that can be controlled, the milder the dependence of the generalization bound on the desired confidence level.Furthermore, we use tools from binary hypothesis testing to derive a second bound, which is explicit in the tail of the information density. This bound confirms that a fast decay of the tail of the information density yields a more favorable dependence of the generalization bound on the confidence level.

Electric cars are a promising alternative to combustion engine cars to lower emissions and fossil fuel dependencies. However, many are skeptical to this unfamiliar technology and the limited driving range of these vehicles. Therefore, people disregard this option without properly knowing if it is a good practical alternative. This is unfortunate, as electric cars according to studies should cover most people's needs. In this paper, we will share our results from a real-world study where 8 participants used an app designed to simulate the battery of electric cars using a regular combustion engine car. In this way it is intended to let people assess their real needs in their real context. Our results show that this might be an effective tool to overcome psychological barriers associated with electric cars, as they do not only assess electric cars and infrastructure, but also their own needs and habits. We also suggest a shift from a kWh and bar perspective to a percentage-perspective as our users easily could work with percentage to figure out the driving range and plan ahead. Our study also elevated a number of uncertainties causing unnecessary worries among our participants.