Large language models (LLMs) are quickly being adopted in a wide range of learning experiences, especially via ubiquitous and broadly accessible chat interfaces like ChatGPT. This type of interface is readily available to students and teachers around the world. Coding education is an interesting test case, both because LLMs have strong performance on coding tasks, and because LLM-powered support tools are rapidly becoming part of the workflow of professional software engineers. To help understand the impact of generic LLM use on coding education, we conducted a large-scale randomized control trial with 5,831 students from 146 countries in an online coding class in which we provided some students with access to a chat interface with GPT-4. Under some assumptions, we estimate positive benefits on exam performance for adopters, the students who used the tool, but over all students, the advertisement of GPT-4 led to a significant average decrease in exam participation. We observe similar decreases in other forms of course engagement. However, this decrease is modulated by the student's country of origin. Offering access to LLMs to students from low human development index countries increased their exam participation rate on average. Our results suggest there may be promising benefits to using LLMs in an introductory coding class, but also potential harms for engagement, which makes their longer term impact on student success unclear. Our work highlights the need for additional investigations to help understand the potential impact of future adoption and integration of LLMs into classrooms.

A/B tests are often required to be conducted on subjects that might have social connections. For e.g., experiments on social media, or medical and social interventions to control the spread of an epidemic. In such settings, the SUTVA assumption for randomized-controlled trials is violated due to network interference, or spill-over effects, as treatments to group A can potentially also affect the control group B. When the underlying social network is known exactly, prior works have demonstrated how to conduct A/B tests adequately to estimate the global average treatment effect (GATE). However, in practice, it is often impossible to obtain knowledge about the exact underlying network. In this paper, we present UNITE: a novel estimator that relax this assumption and can identify GATE while only relying on knowledge of the superset of neighbors for any subject in the graph. Through theoretical analysis and extensive experiments, we show that the proposed approach performs better in comparison to standard estimators.

Yannis Flet-Berliac, Nathan Grinsztajn, Florian Strub, Eugene Choi, Bill Wu, Chris Cremer, Arash Ahmadian, Yash Chandak, Mohammad Gheshlaghi Azar, Olivier Pietquin, Matthieu Geist. Proceedings of the 2024 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. 2024.

Indirect experiments provide a valuable framework for estimating treatment effects in situations where conducting randomized control trials (RCTs) is impractical or unethical. Unlike RCTs, indirect experiments estimate treatment effects by leveraging (conditional) instrumental variables, enabling estimation through encouragement and recommendation rather than strict treatment assignment. However, the sample efficiency of such estimators depends not only on the inherent variability in outcomes but also on the varying compliance levels of users with the instrumental variables and the choice of estimator being used, especially when dealing with numerous instrumental variables. While adaptive experiment design has a rich literature for \textit{direct} experiments, in this paper we take the initial steps towards enhancing sample efficiency for \textit{indirect} experiments by adaptively designing a data collection policy over instrumental variables. Our main contribution is a practical computational procedure that utilizes influence functions to search for an optimal data collection policy, minimizing the mean-squared error of the desired (non-linear) estimator. Through experiments conducted in various domains inspired by real-world applications, we showcase how our method can significantly improve the sample efficiency of indirect experiments.

There has been considerable work in classifying and predicting unproductive persistence, but much less in understanding its causal impact on downstream outcomes of interest, like external assessments. In general, it is experimentally challenging to understand the causal impact because, unlike in many other settings, we cannot directly intervene (to conduct a randomized control trial) and cause students to struggle unproductively in an authentic manner. In this work, we use data from a prior study that used virtual reality headsets to alert teacher’s attention to students who were unproductively struggling. We show that we can use this as an instrumental variable, and use a two-stage least squares analysis to provide a causal estimate of the treatment effect of unproductive persistence on post-test performance. Our results further strengthen the importance of unproductive struggle and highlight the potential of leveraging instruments to identify causal treatment effects of student behaviors during the use of educational technology.

Offline policy evaluation (OPE) allows us to evaluate and estimate a new sequential decision-making policy's performance by leveraging historical interaction data collected from other policies. Evaluating a new policy online without a confident estimate of its performance can lead to costly, unsafe, or hazardous outcomes, especially in education and healthcare. Several OPE estimators have been proposed in the last decade, many of which have hyperparameters and require training. Unfortunately, choosing the best OPE algorithm for each task and domain is still unclear. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that adaptively blends a set of OPE estimators given a dataset without relying on an explicit selection using a statistical procedure. We prove that our estimator is consistent and satisfies several desirable properties for policy evaluation. Additionally, we demonstrate that when compared to alternative approaches, our estimator can be used to select higher-performing policies in healthcare and robotics. Our work contributes to improving ease of use for a general-purpose, estimator-agnostic, off-policy evaluation framework for offline RL.

We consider the task of evaluating a policy for a Markov decision process (MDP). The standard unbiased technique for evaluating a policy is to deploy the policy and observe its performance. We show that the data collected from deploying a different policy, commonly called the behavior policy, can be used to produce unbiased estimates with lower mean squared error than this standard technique. We derive an analytic expression for a minimal variance behavior policy -- a behavior policy that minimizes the mean squared error of the resulting estimates. Because this expression depends on terms that are unknown in practice, we propose a novel policy evaluation sub-problem, behavior policy search: searching for a behavior policy that reduces mean squared error. We present two behavior policy search algorithms and empirically demonstrate their effectiveness in lowering the mean squared error of policy performance estimates.

In this work, we consider the off-policy policy evaluation problem for contextual bandits and finite horizon reinforcement learning in the nonstationary setting. Reusing old data is critical for policy evaluation, but existing estimators that reuse old data introduce large bias such that we can not obtain a valid confidence interval. Inspired from a related field called survey sampling, we introduce a variant of the doubly robust (DR) estimator, called the regression-assisted DR estimator, that can incorporate the past data without introducing a large bias. The estimator unifies several existing off-policy policy evaluation methods and improves on them with the use of auxiliary information and a regression approach. We prove that the new estimator is asymptotically unbiased, and provide a consistent variance estimator to a construct a large sample confidence interval. Finally, we empirically show that the new estimator improves estimation for the current and future policy values, and provides a tight and valid interval estimation in several nonstationary recommendation environments.

Representation learning and exploration are among the key challenges for any deep reinforcement learning agent. In this work, we provide a singular value decomposition based method that can be used to obtain representations that preserve the underlying transition structure in the domain. Perhaps interestingly, we show that these representations also capture the relative frequency of state visitations, thereby providing an estimate for pseudo-counts for free. To scale this decomposition method to large-scale domains, we provide an algorithm that never requires building the transition matrix, can make use of deep networks, and also permits mini-batch training. Further, we draw inspiration from predictive state representations and extend our decomposition method to partially observable environments. With experiments on multi-task settings with partially observable domains, we show that the proposed method can not only learn useful representation on DM-Lab-30 environments (that have inputs involving language instructions, pixel images, rewards, among others) but it can also be effective at hard exploration tasks in DM-Hard-8 environments.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Large transformer models trained on diverse datasets have shown a remarkable ability to learn in-context, achieving high few-shot performance on tasks they were not explicitly trained to solve. In this paper, we study the in-context learning capabilities of transformers in decision-making problems, i.e., reinforcement learning (RL) for bandits and Markov decision processes. To do so, we introduce and study the Decision-Pretrained Transformer (DPT), a supervised pretraining method where a transformer predicts an optimal action given a query state and an in-context dataset of interactions from a diverse set of tasks. While simple, this procedure produces a model with several surprising capabilities. We find that the trained transformer can solve a range of RL problems in-context, exhibiting both exploration online and conservatism offline, despite not being explicitly trained to do so. The model also generalizes beyond the pretraining distribution to new tasks and automatically adapts its decision-making strategies to unknown structure. Theoretically, we show DPT can be viewed as an efficient implementation of Bayesian posterior sampling, a provably sample-efficient RL algorithm. We further leverage this connection to provide guarantees on the regret of the in-context algorithm yielded by DPT, and prove that it can learn faster than algorithms used to generate the pretraining data. These results suggest a promising yet simple path towards instilling strong in-context decision-making abilities in transformers.

Designing reward functions for efficiently guiding reinforcement learning (RL) agents toward specific behaviors is a complex task. This is challenging since it requires the identification of reward structures that are not sparse and that avoid inadvertently inducing undesirable behaviors. Naively modifying the reward structure to offer denser and more frequent feedback can lead to unintended outcomes and promote behaviors that are not aligned with the designer's intended goal. Although potential-based reward shaping is often suggested as a remedy, we systematically investigate settings where deploying it often significantly impairs performance. To address these issues, we introduce a new framework that uses a bi-level objective to learn \emph{behavior alignment reward functions}. These functions integrate auxiliary rewards reflecting a designer's heuristics and domain knowledge with the environment's primary rewards. Our approach automatically determines the most effective way to blend these types of feedback, thereby enhancing robustness against heuristic reward misspecification. Remarkably, it can also adapt an agent's policy optimization process to mitigate suboptimalities resulting from limitations and biases inherent in the underlying RL algorithms. We evaluate our method's efficacy on a diverse set of tasks, from small-scale experiments to high-dimensional control challenges. We investigate heuristic auxiliary rewards of varying quality---some of which are beneficial and others detrimental to the learning process. Our results show that our framework offers a robust and principled way to integrate designer-specified heuristics. It not only addresses key shortcomings of existing approaches but also consistently leads to high-performing solutions, even when given misaligned or poorly-specified auxiliary reward functions.

Shared autonomy refers to approaches for enabling an autonomous agent to collaborate with a human with the aim of improving human performance. However, besides improving performance, it may often also be beneficial that the agent concurrently accounts for preserving the user’s experience or satisfaction of collaboration. In order to address this additional goal, we examine approaches for improving the user experience by constraining the number of interventions by the autonomous agent. We propose two model-free reinforcement learning methods that can account for both hard and soft constraints on the number of interventions. We show that not only does our method outperform the existing baseline, but also eliminates the need to manually tune a black-box hyperparameter for controlling the level of assistance. We also provide an in-depth analysis of intervention scenarios in order to further illuminate system understanding.

Methods for sequential decision-making are often built upon a foundational assumption that the underlying decision process is stationary. This limits the application of such methods because real-world problems are often subject to changes due to external factors (\textit{passive} non-stationarity), changes induced by interactions with the system itself (\textit{active} non-stationarity), or both (\textit{hybrid} non-stationarity). In this work, we take the first steps towards the fundamental challenge of on-policy and off-policy evaluation amidst structured changes due to active, passive, or hybrid non-stationarity. Towards this goal, we make a \textit{higher-order stationarity} assumption such that non-stationarity results in changes over time, but the way changes happen is fixed. We propose, OPEN, an algorithm that uses a double application of counterfactual reasoning and a novel importance-weighted instrument-variable regression to obtain both a lower bias and a lower variance estimate of the structure in the changes of a policy's past performances. Finally, we show promising results on how OPEN can be used to predict future performances for several domains inspired by real-world applications that exhibit non-stationarity.

While there has been extensive work on learning from offline data for contextual multi-armed bandit settings, existing methods typically assume there is no environment shift: that the learned policy will operate in the same environmental process as that of data collection. However, this assumption may limit the use of these methods for many practical situations where there may be distribution shifts. In this work we propose Factored Distributionally Robust Optimization (Factored-DRO), which is able to separately handle distribution shifts in the context distribution and shifts in the reward generating process. Prior work that either ignores potential shifts in the context, or considers them jointly, can lead to performance that is too conservative, especially under certain forms of reward feedback. Our Factored-DRO objective mitigates this by considering the shifts separately, and our proposed estimators are consistent and converge asymptotically. We also introduce a practical algorithm and demonstrate promising empirical results in environments based on real-world datasets, such as voting outcomes and scene classification.

We present several classes of reinforcement learning algorithms that safely generalize to Markov decision processes (MDPs) not seen during training. Specifically, we study the setting in which some set of MDPs is accessible for training. The goal is to generalize safely to MDPs that are sampled from the same distribution, but which may not be in the set accessible for training. For various definitions of safety, our algorithms give probabilistic guarantees that agents can safely generalize to MDPs that are sampled from the same distribution but are not necessarily in the training set. These algorithms are a type of Seldonian algorithm (Thomas et al., 2019), which is a class of machine learning algorithms that return models with probabilistic safety guarantees for user-specified definitions of safety.

When faced with sequential decision-making problems, it is often useful to be able to predict what would happen if decisions were made using a new policy. Those predictions must often be based on data collected under some previously used decision-making rule. Many previous methods enable such off-policy (or counterfactual) estimation of the expected value of a performance measure called the return. In this paper, we take the first steps towards a 'universal off-policy estimator' (UnO)---one that provides off-policy estimates and high-confidence bounds for any parameter of the return distribution. We use UnO for estimating and simultaneously bounding the mean, variance, quantiles/median, inter-quantile range, CVaR, and the entire cumulative distribution of returns. Finally, we also discuss UnO's applicability in various settings, including fully observable, partially observable (i.e., with unobserved confounders), Markovian, non-Markovian, stationary, smoothly non-stationary, and discrete distribution shifts.

Many sequential decision making problems are high-stakes and require off-policy evaluation (OPE) of a new policy using historical data collected using some other policy. One of the most common OPE techniques that provides unbiased estimates is trajectory based importance sampling (IS). However, due to the high variance of trajectory IS estimates, importance sampling methods based on state-action visitation distributions (SIS) have recently been adopted. Unfortunately, while SIS often provides lower variance estimates for long horizons, estimating the state-action distribution ratios can be challenging and lead to biased estimates. In this paper, we present a new perspective on this bias-variance trade-off and show the existence of a spectrum of estimators whose endpoints are SIS and IS. Additionally, we also establish a spectrum for doubly-robust and weighted version of these estimators. We provide empirical evidence that estimators in this spectrum can be used to trade-off between the bias and variance of IS and SIS and can achieve lower mean-squared error than both IS and SIS.

The Markov decision process (MDP) formulation used to model many real-world sequential decision making problems does not efficiently capture the setting where the set of available decisions (actions) at each time step is stochastic. Recently, the stochastic action set Markov decision process (SAS-MDP) formulation has been proposed, which better captures the concept of a stochastic action set. In this paper we argue that existing RL algorithms for SAS-MDPs can suffer from potential divergence issues, and present new policy gradient algorithms for SAS-MDPs that incorporate variance reduction techniques unique to this setting, and provide conditions for their convergence. We conclude with experiments that demonstrate the practicality of our approaches on tasks inspired by real-life use cases wherein the action set is stochastic.

In many real-world sequential decision making problems, the number of available actions (decisions) can vary over time. While problems like catastrophic forgetting, changing transition dynamics, changing rewards functions, etc. have been well-studied in the lifelong learning literature, the setting where the size of the action set changes remains unaddressed. In this paper, we present first steps towards developing an algorithm that autonomously adapts to an action set whose size changes over time. To tackle this open problem, we break it into two problems that can be solved iteratively: inferring the underlying, unknown, structure in the space of actions and optimizing a policy that leverages this structure. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach on large-scale real-world lifelong learning problems.

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption is violated, and using existing algorithms may result in a performance lag. To proactively search for a good future policy, we present a policy gradient algorithm that maximizes a forecast of future performance. This forecast is obtained by fitting a curve to the counter-factual estimates of policy performance over time, without explicitly modeling the underlying non-stationarity. The resulting algorithm amounts to a non-uniform reweighting of past data, and we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes can be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. We show that our algorithm, called Prognosticator, is more robust to non-stationarity than two online adaptation techniques, on three simulated problems motivated by real-world applications.

Performance evaluations are critical for quantifying algorithmic advances in reinforcement learning. Recent reproducibility analyses have shown that reported performance results are often inconsistent and difficult to replicate. In this work, we argue that the inconsistency of performance stems from the use of flawed evaluation metrics. Taking a step towards ensuring that reported results are consistent, we propose a new comprehensive evaluation methodology for reinforcement learning algorithms that produces reliable measurements of performance both on a single environment and when aggregated across environments. We demonstrate this method by evaluating a broad class of reinforcement learning algorithms on standard benchmark tasks.

Many real-world sequential decision-making problems involve critical systems with financial risks and human-life risks. While several works in the past have proposed methods that are safe for deployment, they assume that the underlying problem is stationary. However, many real-world problems of interest exhibit non-stationarity, and when stakes are high, the cost associated with a false stationarity assumption may be unacceptable. We take the first steps towards ensuring safety, with high confidence, for smoothly-varying non-stationary decision problems. Our proposed method extends a type of safe algorithm, called a Seldonian algorithm, through a synthesis of model-free reinforcement learning with time-series analysis. Safety is ensured using sequential hypothesis testing of a policy’s forecasted performance, and confidence intervals are obtained using wild bootstrap.

Most model-free reinforcement learning methods leverage state representations (embeddings) for generalization, but either ignore structure in the space of actions or assume the structure is provided a priori. We show how a policy can be decomposed into a component that acts in a low-dimensional space of action representations and a component that transforms these representations into actual actions. These representations improve generalization over large, finite action sets by allowing the agent to infer the outcomes of actions similar to actions already taken. We provide an algorithm to both learn and use action representations and provide conditions for its convergence. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on large-scale real-world problems.