Online detection of instantaneous changes in the generative process of a data sequence generally focuses on retrospective inference of such change points without considering their future occurrences. We extend the Bayesian Online Change Point Detection algorithm to also infer the number of time steps until the next change point (i.e., the residual time). This enables to handle observation models which depend on the total segment duration, which is useful to model data sequences with temporal scaling. The resulting inference algorithm for segment detection can be deployed in an online fashion, and we illustrate applications to synthetic and to two medical real-world data sets.

Probabilistic representations of movement primitives open important new possibilities for machine learning in robotics. These representations are able to capture the variability of the demonstrations from a teacher as a probability distribution over trajectories, providing a sensible region of exploration and the ability to adapt to changes in the robot environment. However, to be able to capture variability and correlations between different joints, a probabilistic movement primitive requires the estimation of a larger number of parameters compared to their deterministic counterparts, which focus on modeling only the mean behavior. In this article, we make use of prior distributions over the parameters of a probabilistic movement primitive to make robust estimates of the parameters with few training instances. In addition, we introduce general purpose operators to adapt movement primitives in joint and task space. The proposed training method and adaptation operators are tested in a coffee preparation and in robot table tennis task. In the coffee preparation task we evaluate the generalization performance to changes in the location of the coffee grinder and brewing chamber in a target area, achieving the desired behavior after only two demonstrations. In the table tennis task we evaluate the hit and return rates, outperforming previous approaches while using fewer task specific heuristics.

Local trajectory optimisation techniques are a powerful tool for motion planning. However, they often get stuck in local optima depending on the quality of the initial solution and consequently, often do not find a valid (i.e. collision free) trajectory. Moreover, they often require fine tuning of a cost function to obtain the desired motions. In this paper, we address both problems by combining local trajectory optimisation with learning from demonstrations. The human expert demonstrates how to reach different target end-effector locations in different ways. From these demonstrations, we estimate a trajectory distribution, represented by a Probabilistic Movement Primitive (ProMP). For a new target location, we sample different trajectories from the ProMP and use these trajectories as initial solutions for the local optimisation. As the ProMP generates versatile initial solutions for the optimisation, the chance of finding poor local minima is significantly reduced. Moreover, the learned trajectory distribution is used to specify the smoothness costs for the optimisation, resulting in solutions of similar shape as the demonstrations. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in several complex obstacle avoidance scenarios.