Targeted and uniform interventions to a system are crucial for unveiling causal relationships. While several methods have been developed to leverage interventional data for causal structure learning, their practical application in real-world scenarios often remains challenging. Recent benchmark studies have highlighted these difficulties, even when large numbers of single-variable intervention samples are available. In this work, we demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that such datasets contain a wealth of causal information that can be effectively extracted under realistic assumptions about the data distribution. More specifically, we introduce a novel variant of interventional faithfulness, which relies on comparisons between the marginal distributions of each variable across observational and interventional settings, and we introduce a score on causal orders. Under this assumption, we are able to prove strong theoretical guarantees on the optimum of our score that also hold for large-scale settings. To empirically verify our theory, we introduce Intersort, an algorithm designed to infer the causal order from datasets containing large numbers of single-variable interventions by approximately optimizing our score. Intersort outperforms baselines (GIES, DCDI, PC and EASE) on almost all simulated data settings replicating common benchmarks in the field. Our proposed novel approach to modeling interventional datasets thus offers a promising avenue for advancing causal inference, highlighting significant potential for further enhancements under realistic assumptions.

The discovery of therapeutics to treat genetically-driven pathologies relies on identifying genes involved in the underlying disease mechanism. Existing approaches search over the billions of potential interventions to maximize the expected influence on the target phenotype. However, to reduce the risk of failure in future stages of trials, practical experiment design aims to find a set of interventions that maximally change a target phenotype via diverse mechanisms. We propose DiscoBAX - a sample-efficient method for maximizing the rate of significant discoveries per experiment while simultaneously probing for a wide range of diverse mechanisms during a genomic experiment campaign. We provide theoretical guarantees of optimality under standard assumptions, and conduct a comprehensive experimental evaluation covering both synthetic as well as real-world experimental design tasks. DiscoBAX outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods for experimental design, selecting effective and diverse perturbations in biological systems.

Diffusion-based methods, represented as stochastic differential equations on a continuous-time domain, have recently proven successful as non-adversarial generative models. Training such models relies on denoising score matching, which can be seen as multi-scale denoising autoencoders. Here, we augment the denoising score matching framework to enable representation learning without any supervised signal. GANs and VAEs learn representations by directly transforming latent codes to data samples. In contrast, the introduced diffusion-based representation learning relies on a new formulation of the denoising score matching objective and thus encodes the information needed for denoising. We illustrate how this difference allows for manual control of the level of details encoded in the representation. Using the same approach, we propose to learn an infinite-dimensional latent code that achieves improvements on state-of-the-art models on semi-supervised image classification. We also compare the quality of learned representations of diffusion score matching with other methods like autoencoder and contrastively trained systems through their performances on downstream tasks. Finally, we also ablate with a different SDE formulation for diffusion models and show that the benefits on downstream tasks are still present on changing the underlying differential equation.

Simulating the spread of infectious diseases in human communities is critical for predicting the trajectory of an epidemic and verifying various policies to control the devastating impacts of the outbreak. Many existing simulators are based on compartment models that divide people into a few subsets and simulate the dynamics among those subsets using hypothesized differential equations. However, these models lack the requisite granularity to study the effect of intelligent policies that influence every individual in a particular way. In this work, we introduce a simulator software capable of modeling a population structure and controlling the disease's propagation at an individualistic level. In order to estimate the confidence of the conclusions drawn from the simulator, we employ a comprehensive probabilistic approach where the entire population is constructed as a hierarchical random variable. This approach makes the inferred conclusions more robust against sampling artifacts and gives confidence bounds for decisions based on the simulation results. To showcase potential applications, the simulator parameters are set based on the formal statistics of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the outcome of a wide range of control measures is investigated. Furthermore, the simulator is used as the environment of a reinforcement learning problem to find the optimal policies to control the pandemic. The obtained experimental results indicate the simulator's adaptability and capacity in making sound predictions and a successful policy derivation example based on real-world data. As an exemplary application, our results show that the proposed policy discovery method can lead to control measures that produce significantly fewer infected individuals in the population and protect the health system against saturation.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a well-studied topic in supervised learning. Extending the successes in supervised learning methods to the reinforcement learning (RL) setting, however, is difficult due to the data generating process - RL agents actively query their environment for data and this data is a function of the policy followed by the agent. Thus, an agent could neglect a shift in the environment if its policy did not lead it to explore the aspect of the environment that shifted. Therefore, to achieve safe and robust generalization in RL, there exists an unmet need for OOD detection through active experimentation. Here, we attempt to bridge this lacuna by first - defining a causal framework for OOD scenarios or environments encountered by RL agents in the wild. Then, we propose a novel task - that of Out-of-Task Distribution (OOTD) detection. We introduce an RL agent which actively experiments in a test environment and subsequently concludes whether it is OOTD or not. We name our method GalilAI, in honor of Galileo Galilei, as it also discovers, among other causal processes, that gravitational acceleration is independent of the mass of a body. Finally, we propose a simple probabilistic neural network baseline for comparison, which extends extant Model-Based RL. We find that our method outperforms the baseline significantly.

Humans show an innate ability to learn the regularities of the world through interaction. By performing experiments in our environment, we are able to discern the causal factors of variation and infer how they affect the dynamics of our world. Analogously, here we attempt to equip reinforcement learning agents with the ability to perform experiments that facilitate a categorization of the rolled-out trajectories, and to subsequently infer the causal factors of the environment in a hierarchical manner. We introduce a novel intrinsic reward, called causal curiosity, and show that it allows our agents to learn optimal sequences of actions, and to discover causal factors in the dynamics. The learned behavior allows the agent to infer a binary quantized representation for the ground-truth causal factors in every environment. Additionally, we find that these experimental behaviors are semantically meaningful (e.g., to differentiate between heavy and light blocks, our agents learn to lift them), and are learnt in a self-supervised manner with approximately 2.5 times less data than conventional supervised planners. We show that these behaviors can be re-purposed and fine-tuned (e.g., from lifting to pushing or other downstream tasks). Finally, we show that the knowledge of causal factor representations aids zero-shot learning for more complex tasks.

We present a novel algorithm for non-linear instrumental variable (IV) regression, DualIV, which simplifies traditional two-stage methods via a dual formulation. Inspired by problems in stochastic programming, we show that two-stage procedures for non-linear IV regression can be reformulated as a convex-concave saddle-point problem. Our formulation enables us to circumvent the first-stage regression which is a potential bottleneck in real-world applications. We develop a simple kernel-based algorithm with an analytic solution based on this formulation. Empirical results show that we are competitive to existing, more complicated algorithms for non-linear instrumental variable regression.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have been shown to produce realistic samples from high-dimensional distributions, but training them is considered hard. A possible explanation for training instabilities is the inherent imbalance between the networks: While the discriminator is trained directly on both real and fake samples, the generator only has control over the fake samples it produces since the real data distribution is fixed by the choice of a given dataset. We propose a simple modification that gives the generator control over the real samples which leads to a tempered learning process for both generator and discriminator. The real data distribution passes through a lens before being revealed to the discriminator, balancing the generator and discriminator by gradually revealing more detailed features necessary to produce high-quality results. The proposed module automatically adjusts the learning process to the current strength of the networks, yet is generic and easy to add to any GAN variant. In a number of experiments, we show that this can improve quality, stability and/or convergence speed across a range of different GAN architectures (DCGAN, LSGAN, WGAN-GP).