Spatiotemporal dynamics pervade the natural sciences, from the morphogen dynamics underlying patterning in animal pigmentation to the protein waves controlling cell division. A central challenge lies in understanding how controllable parameters induce qualitative changes in system behavior called bifurcations. This endeavor is particularly difficult in realistic settings where governing partial differential equations (PDEs) are unknown and data is limited and noisy. To address this challenge, we propose TRENDy (Temporal Regression of Effective Nonlinear Dynamics), an equation-free approach to learning low-dimensional, predictive models of spatiotemporal dynamics. TRENDy first maps input data to a low-dimensional space of effective dynamics through a cascade of multiscale filtering operations. Our key insight is the recognition that these effective dynamics can be fit by a neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) having the same parameter space as the input PDE. The preceding filtering operations strongly regularize the phase space of the NODE, making TRENDy significantly more robust to noise compared to existing methods. We train TRENDy to predict the effective dynamics of synthetic and real data representing dynamics from across the physical and life sciences. We then demonstrate how we can automatically locate both Turing and Hopf bifurcations in unseen regions of parameter space. We finally apply our method to the analysis of spatial patterning of the ocellated lizard through development. We found that TRENDy's predicted effective state not only accurately predicts spatial changes over time but also identifies distinct pattern features unique to different anatomical regions, such as the tail, neck, and body--an insight that highlights the potential influence of surface geometry on reaction-diffusion mechanisms and their role in driving spatially varying pattern dynamics.

Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing methods predict oncoming catastrophes in individual systems but are primarily time-series-based and struggle both to categorize qualitative dynamical regimes across diverse systems and to generalize to real data. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven, physically-informed deep-learning framework for classifying dynamical regimes and characterizing bifurcation boundaries based on the extraction of topologically invariant features. We focus on the paradigmatic case of the supercritical Hopf bifurcation, which is used to model periodic dynamics across a wide range of applications. Our convolutional attention method is trained with data augmentations that encourage the learning of topological invariants which can be used to detect bifurcation boundaries in unseen systems and to design models of biological systems like oscillatory gene regulatory networks. We further demonstrate our method's use in analyzing real data by recovering distinct proliferation and differentiation dynamics along pancreatic endocrinogenesis trajectory in gene expression space based on single-cell data. Our method provides valuable insights into the qualitative, long-term behavior of a wide range of dynamical systems, and can detect bifurcations or catastrophic transitions in large-scale physical and biological systems.

BACKGROUND: Charting cellular trajectories over gene expression is key to understanding dynamic cellular processes and their underlying mechanisms. While advances in single-cell RNA-sequencing technologies and computational methods have pushed forward the recovery of such trajectories, trajectory inference remains a challenge due to the noisy, sparse, and high-dimensional nature of single-cell data. This challenge can be alleviated by increasing either the number of cells sampled along the trajectory (breadth) or the sequencing depth, i.e. the number of reads captured per cell (depth). Generally, these two factors are coupled due to an inherent breadth-depth tradeoff that arises when the sequencing budget is constrained due to financial or technical limitations. RESULTS: Here we study the optimal allocation of a fixed sequencing budget to optimize the recovery of trajectory attributes. Empirical results reveal that reconstruction accuracy of internal cell structure in expression space scales with the logarithm of either the breadth or depth of sequencing. We additionally observe a power law relationship between the optimal number of sampled cells and the corresponding sequencing budget. For linear trajectories, non-monotonicity in trajectory reconstruction across the breadth-depth tradeoff can impact downstream inference, such as expression pattern analysis along the trajectory. We demonstrate these results for five single-cell RNA-sequencing datasets encompassing differentiation of embryonic stem cells, pancreatic beta cells, hepatoblast and multipotent hematopoietic cells, as well as induced reprogramming of embryonic fibroblasts into neurons. By addressing the challenges of single-cell data, our study offers insights into maximizing the efficiency of cellular trajectory analysis through strategic allocation of sequencing resources.

MOTIVATION: Single-cell RNA-sequencing technologies have greatly enhanced our understanding of heterogeneous cell populations and underlying regulatory processes. However, structural (spatial or temporal) relations between cells are lost during cell dissociation. These relations are crucial for identifying associated biological processes. Many existing tissue-reconstruction algorithms use prior information about subsets of genes that are informative with respect to the structure or process to be reconstructed. When such information is not available, and in the general case when the input genes code for multiple processes, including being susceptible to noise, biological reconstruction is often computationally challenging. RESULTS: We propose an algorithm that iteratively identifies manifold-informative genes using existing reconstruction algorithms for single-cell RNA-seq data as subroutine. We show that our algorithm improves the quality of tissue reconstruction for diverse synthetic and real scRNA-seq data, including data from the mammalian intestinal epithelium and liver lobules. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code and data for benchmarking are available at github.com/syq2012/iterative_weight_update_for_reconstruction.

Advances in genetic engineering technologies have allowed the construction of artificial genetic circuits, which have been used to generate spatial patterns of differential gene expression. However, the question of how cells can be programmed, and how complex the rules need to be, to achieve a desired tissue morphology has received less attention. Here, we address these questions by developing a mathematical model to study how cells can collectively grow into clusters with different structural morphologies by secreting diffusible signals that can influence cellular growth rates. We formulate how growth regulators can be used to control the formation of cellular protrusions and how the range of achievable structures scales with the number of distinct signals. We show that a single growth inhibitor is insufficient for the formation of multiple protrusions but may be achieved with multiple growth inhibitors, and that other types of signals can regulate the shape of protrusion tips. These examples illustrate how our approach could potentially be used to guide the design of regulatory circuits for achieving a desired target structure.

We propose a new method to estimate Wasserstein distances and optimal transport plans between two probability distributions from samples in high dimension. Unlike plug-in rules that simply replace the true distributions by their empirical counterparts, our method promotes couplings with low transport rank, a new structural assumption that is similar to the nonnegative rank of a matrix. Regularizing based on this assumption leads to drastic improvements on high-dimensional data for various tasks, including domain adaptation in single-cell RNA sequencing data. These findings are supported by a theoretical analysis that indicates that the transport rank is key in overcoming the curse of dimensionality inherent to data-driven optimal transport.

Infection and diffusion processes over networks arise in many domains. These introduce many challenging prediction tasks, such as influence estimation, trend prediction, and epidemic source localization. The standard approach to such problems is generative: assume an underlying infection model, learn its parameters, and infer the required output. In order to learn efficiently, the chosen infection models are often simple, and learning is focused on inferring the parameters of the model rather than on optimizing prediction accuracy. Here we argue that for prediction tasks, a discriminative approach is more adequate. We introduce DIMPLE, a novel discriminative learning framework for training classifiers based on dynamic infection models. We show how highly non-linear predictors based on infection models can be "linearized" by considering a larger class of prediction functions. Efficient learning over this class is performed by constructing "infection kernels" based on the outputs of infection models, and can be plugged into any kernel-supporting framework. DIMPLE can be applied to virtually any infection-related prediction task and any infection model for which the desired output can be calculated or simulated. For influence estimation in well-known infection models, we show that the kernel can either be computed in closed form, or reduces to estimating co-influence of seed pairs. We apply DIMPLE to the tasks of influence estimation on synthetic and real data from Digg, and to predicting customer network value in Polly, a viral phone-based development-related service deployed in low-literate communities. Our results show that DIMPLE outperforms strong baselines.