Abstract Forecasting players in sports has grown in popularity due to the potential for a tactical advantage and the applicability of such research to multi-agent interaction systems. Team sports contain a significant social component that influences interactions between teammates and opponents. However, it still needs to be fully exploited. In this work, we hypothesize that each participant has a specific function in each action and that role-based interaction is critical for predicting players’ future moves. We create RolFor, a novel end-to-end model for Role-based Forecasting. RolFor uses a new module we developed called Ordering Neural Networks (OrderNN) to permute the order of the players such that each player is assigned to a latent role. The latent role is then modeled with a RoleGCN. Thanks to its graph representation, it provides a fully learnable adjacency matrix that captures the relationships between roles and is subsequently used to forecast the players’ future trajectories. Extensive experiments on a challenging NBA basketball dataset back up the importance of roles and justify our goal of modeling them using optimizable models. When an oracle provides roles, the proposed RolFor compares favorably to the current state-of-the-art (it ranks first in terms of ADE and second in terms of FDE errors). However, training the end-to-end RolFor incurs the issues of differentiability of permutation methods, which we experimentally review. Finally, this work restates differentiable ranking as a difficult open problem and its great potential in conjunction with graph-based interaction models.

Random utility models (RUMs) encode the likelihood that a particular item will be selected from a slate of competing items. RUMs are well-studied objects in both discrete choice theory and, more recently, in the machine learning community, as they encode a fairly broad notion of rational user behavior. In this paper, we focus on slates of size two representing head-to-head contests. Given a tournament matrix $M$ such that $M_{i,j}$ is the probability that item $j$ will be selected from $\{i, j\}$, we consider the problem of finding the RUM that most closely reproduces $M$. For this problem we obtain a polynomial-time algorithm returning a RUM that approximately minimizes the average error over the pairs. Our experiments show that RUMs can perfectly represent many of the tournament matrices that have been considered in the literature; in fact, the maximum average error induced by RUMs on the matrices we considered is negligible ($\approx 0.001$). We also show that RUMs are competitive, on prediction tasks, with previous approaches.

Clustering problems and clustering algorithms are often overly sensitive to the presence of outliers: even a handful of points can greatly affect the structure of the optimal solution and its cost. This is why many algorithms for robust clustering problems have been formulated in recent years. These algorithms discard some points as outliers, excluding them from the clustering. However, outlier selection can be unfair: some categories of input points may be disproportionately affected by the outlier removal algorithm.

Clustering is a central topic in unsupervised learning and its online formulation has received a lot of attention in recent years. In this paper, we study the classic facility location problem in the presence of multiple machine-learned advice. We design an algorithm with provable performance guarantees such that, if the advice is good, it outperforms the best-known online algorithms for the problem, and if it is bad it still matches their performance.We complement our theoretical analysis with an in-depth study of the performance of our algorithm, showing its effectiveness on synthetic and real-world data sets.

Understanding information dynamics and their resulting cascades is a central topic in social network analysis. In a recent seminal work, Cheng et al. analyzed multiples cascades on Facebook over several months, and noticed that many of them exhibit a recurring behaviour. They tend to have multiple peaks of popularity, with periods of quiescence in between.

We present a novel approach for LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic reconstruction. The main technical idea is to show that the distribution over the documents generated by LDA can be transformed into a distribution for a much simpler generative model in which documents are generated from {\em the same set of topics} but have a much simpler structure: documents are single topic and topics are chosen uniformly at random. Furthermore, this reduction is approximation preserving, in the sense that approximate distributions-- the only ones we can hope to compute in practice-- are mapped into approximate distribution in the simplified world. This opens up the possibility of efficiently reconstructing LDA topics in a roundabout way. Compute an approximate document distribution from the given corpus, transform it into an approximate distribution for the single-topic world, and run a reconstruction algorithm in the uniform, single topic world-- a much simpler task than direct LDA reconstruction. Indeed, we show the viability of the approach by giving very simple algorithms for a generalization of two notable cases that have been studied in the literature, $p$-separability and Gibbs sampling for matrix-like topics.

Recently, due to the widespread diffusion of smart-phones, mobile puzzle games have experienced a huge increase in their popularity. A successful puzzle has to be both captivating and challenging, and it has been suggested that these features are somehow related to their computational complexity [6]. Indeed, many puzzle games – such as Mah-Jongg, Sokoban, Candy Crush, and 2048, to name a few – are known to be NP-hard [3], [4], [8], [12]. In this paper we consider Trainyard: a popular mobile puzzle game whose goal is to get colored trains from their initial stations to suitable destination stations. We prove that the problem of determining whether there exists a solution to a given Trainyard level is NP-hard. We also provide an implementation of our hardness reduction.