Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved significant success across various tasks, but ensuring reliable uncertainty estimates, known as model calibration, is crucial for their safe and effective deployment. Modern DNNs often suffer from overconfidence, leading to miscalibration. We propose a novel post-hoc calibration method called feature clipping (FC) to address this issue. FC involves clipping feature values to a specified threshold, effectively increasing entropy in high calibration error samples while maintaining the information in low calibration error samples. This process reduces the overconfidence in predictions, improving the overall calibration of the model. Our extensive experiments on datasets such as CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and ImageNet, and models including CNNs and transformers, demonstrate that FC consistently enhances calibration performance. Additionally, we provide a theoretical analysis that validates the effectiveness of our method. As the first calibration technique based on feature modification, feature clipping offers a novel approach to improving model calibration, showing significant improvements over both post-hoc and train-time calibration methods and pioneering a new avenue for feature-based model calibration.

Model calibration is essential for ensuring that the predictions of deep neural networks accurately reflect true probabilities in real-world classification tasks. However, deep networks often produce over-confident or under-confident predictions, leading to miscalibration. Various methods have been proposed to address this issue by designing effective loss functions for calibration, such as focal loss. In this paper, we analyze its effectiveness and provide a unified loss framework of focal loss and its variants, where we mainly attribute their superiority in model calibration to the loss weighting factor that estimates sample-wise uncertainty. Based on our analysis, existing loss functions fail to achieve optimal calibration performance due to two main issues: including misalignment during optimization and insufficient precision in uncertainty estimation. Specifically, focal loss cannot align sample uncertainty with gradient scaling and the single logit cannot indicate the uncertainty. To address these issues, we reformulate the optimization from the perspective of gradients, which focuses on uncertain samples. Meanwhile, we propose using the Brier Score as the loss weight factor, which provides a more accurate uncertainty estimation via all the logits. Extensive experiments on various models and datasets demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance.1

As diffusion models become increasingly popular, the misuse of copyrighted and private images has emerged as a major concern. One promising solution to mitigate this issue is identifying the contribution of specific training samples in generative models, a process known as data attribution. Existing data attribution methods for diffusion models typically quantify the contribution of a training sample by evaluating the change in diffusion loss when the sample is included or excluded from the training process. However, we argue that the direct usage of diffusion loss cannot represent such a contribution accurately due to the calculation of diffusion loss. Specifically, these approaches measure the divergence between predicted and ground truth distributions, which leads to an indirect comparison between the predicted distributions and cannot represent the variances between model behaviors. To address these issues, we aim to measure the direct comparison between predicted distributions with an attribution score to analyse the training sample importance, which is achieved by Diffusion Attribution Score (\textit{DAS}). Underpinned by rigorous theoretical analysis, we elucidate the effectiveness of DAS. Additionally, we explore strategies to accelerate DAS calculations, facilitating its application to large-scale diffusion models. Our extensive experiments across various datasets and diffusion models demonstrate that DAS significantly surpasses previous benchmarks in terms of the linear data-modelling score, establishing new state-of-the-art performance.

Model calibration seeks to ensure that models produce confidence scores that accurately reflect the true likelihood of their predictions being correct. However, existing calibration approaches are fundamentally tied to datasets of one-hot labels implicitly assuming full certainty in all the annotations. Such datasets are effective for classification but provides insufficient knowledge of uncertainty for model calibration, necessitating the curation of datasets with numerically rich ground-truth confidence values. However, due to the scarcity of uncertain visual examples, such samples are not easily available as real datasets. In this paper, we introduce calibration-aware data augmentation to create synthetic datasets of diverse samples and their ground-truth uncertainty. Specifically, we present **Calibration-aware Semantic Mixing (CSM)**, a novel framework that generates training samples with mixed class characteristics and annotates them with distinct confidence scores via diffusion models. Based on this framework, we propose calibrated reannotation to tackle the misalignment between the annotated confidence score and the mixing ratio during the diffusion reverse process. Besides, we explore the loss functions that better fit the new data representation paradigm. Experimental results demonstrate that CSM achieves superior calibration compared to the state-of-the-art calibration approaches. Our code is [available here](https://github.com/E-Galois/CSM).

Deep neural networks are increasingly utilized in various machine learning tasks. However, as these models grow in complexity, they often face calibration issues, despite enhanced prediction accuracy. Many studies have endeavored to improve calibration performance through the use of specific loss functions, data preprocessing and training frameworks. Yet, investigations into calibration properties have been somewhat overlooked. Our study leverages the Neural Architecture Search (NAS) search space, offering an exhaustive model architecture space for thorough calibration properties exploration. We specifically create a model calibration dataset. This dataset evaluates 90 bin-based and 12 additional calibration measurements across 117,702 unique neural networks within the widely employed NATS-Bench search space. Our analysis aims to answer several longstanding questions in the field, using our proposed dataset: (i) Can model calibration be generalized across different datasets? (ii) Can robustness be used as a calibration measurement? (iii) How reliable are calibration metrics? (iv) Does a post-hoc calibration method affect all models uniformly? (v) How does calibration interact with accuracy? (vi) What is the impact of bin size on calibration measurement? (vii) Which architectural designs are beneficial for calibration? Additionally, our study bridges an existing gap by exploring calibration within NAS. By providing this dataset, we enable further research into NAS calibration. As far as we are aware, our research represents the first large-scale investigation into calibration properties and the premier study of calibration issues within NAS.

The use of deep neural networks in real-world applications require well-calibrated networks with confidence scores that accurately reflect the actual probability. However, it has been found that these networks often provide over-confident predictions, which leads to poor calibration. Recent efforts have sought to address this issue by focal loss to reduce over-confidence, but this approach can also lead to under-confident predictions. While different variants of focal loss have been explored, it is difficult to find a balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. In our work, we propose a new loss function by focusing on dual logits. Our method not only considers the ground truth logit, but also take into account the highest logit ranked after the ground truth logit. By maximizing the gap between these two logits, our proposed dual focal loss can achieve a better balance between over-confidence and under-confidence. We provide theoretical evidence to support our approach and demonstrate its effectiveness through evaluations on multiple models and datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance. Code is available at https://github.com/Linwei94/DualFocalLoss

Confidence calibration - the process to calibrate the output probability distribution of neural networks - is essential for safety-critical applications of such networks. Recent works verify the link between mis-calibration and overfitting. However, early stopping, as a well-known technique to mitigate overfitting, fails to calibrate networks. In this work, we study the limitions of early stopping and comprehensively analyze the overfitting problem of a network considering each individual block. We then propose a novel regularization method, predecessor combination search (PCS), to improve calibration by searching a combination of best-fitting block predecessors, where block predecessors are the corresponding network blocks with weight parameters from earlier training stages. PCS achieves the state-of-the-art calibration performance on multiple datasets and architectures. In addition, PCS improves model robustness under dataset distribution shift. Supplementary material and code are available at https://github.com/Linwei94/PCS