In multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), accurately modeling the intricate dependencies among multiple variables remains a significant challenge due to the inherent limitations of traditional approaches. Most existing models adopt either channel-independent (CI) or channel-dependent (CD) strategies, each presenting distinct drawbacks. CI methods fail to leverage the potential insights from inter-channel interactions, resulting in models that may not fully exploit the underlying statistical dependencies present in the data. Conversely, CD approaches often incorporate too much extraneous information, risking model overfitting and predictive inefficiency. To address these issues, we introduce the Adaptive Forecasting Transformer (Adapformer), an advanced Transformer-based framework that merges the benefits of CI and CD methodologies through effective channel management. The core of Adapformer lies in its dual-stage encoder-decoder architecture, which includes the Adaptive Channel Enhancer (ACE) for enriching embedding processes and the Adaptive Channel Forecaster (ACF) for refining the predictions. ACE enhances token representations by selectively incorporating essential dependencies, while ACF streamlines the decoding process by focusing on the most relevant covariates, substantially reducing noise and redundancy. Our rigorous testing on diverse datasets shows that Adapformer achieves superior performance over existing models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency, thus making it state-of-the-art in MTSF.

Controlling foot placement is a key challenge in the use of assistive lower limb exoskeletons designed for those with motor impairments. Due to the mechanical flexibility of exoskeletons, users can intentionally manipulate the resulting step length without alteration of the exoskeleton’s reference trajectory. This is generally achieved by manually applying wrench upon the exoskeleton and the ground using crutches. This work sought to investigate this mechanism as a deliberate means to control foot placement. Ten nondisabled participants were asked to pilot a user-balanced exoskeleton to target step lengths of 0.1 to 0.4 m, with the exoskeleton trajectory unchanged throughout the experiment. Performance was evaluated by mean absolute error (MAE) and standard deviation (SD) of resulting step lengths. To explore the degree that these results might apply to users with impairments, participants were asked to minimize leg muscle activations during the experiment. Simultaneously, surface electromyography (sEMG) data were collected and normalized between resting (0.0) and unassisted walking (1.0). Activations ranged between 0.014 and 2.853, and were used to categorize participants into High muscle activation (HMA) and Low muscle activation (LMA) groups. The LMA group (median MAE 0.026 m, SD 0.028 m) performed differently compared to the HMA group (median MAE 0.021 m, SD 0.021 m), however, most participants achieved acceptable performance across all target step lengths, compared to a 0.05 m guideline. The results confirm that step length can be controlled through exoskeleton users’ manual efforts. Whilst the range of adjustments may vary with device and user, this could facilitate simplified exoskeleton control strategies and an intuitive method of user control.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a prevalent method for adapting pre-trained large language models to downstream tasks. However, the simple low-rank decomposition form may constrain the optimization flexibility. To address this limitation, we introduce Location-aware Cosine Adaptation (LoCA), a novel frequency-domain parameter-efficient fine-tuning method based on inverse Discrete Cosine Transform (iDCT) with selective locations of learnable components. We begin with a comprehensive theoretical comparison between frequency-domain and low-rank decompositions for fine-tuning pre-trained large models. Our analysis reveals that frequency-domain decomposition with carefully selected frequency components can surpass the expressivity of traditional low-rank-based methods. Furthermore, we demonstrate that iDCT offers a more efficient implementation compared to inverse Discrete Fourier Transform (iDFT), allowing for better selection and tuning of frequency components while maintaining equivalent expressivity to the optimal iDFT-based adaptation. By employing finite-difference approximation to estimate gradients for discrete locations of learnable coefficients on the DCT spectrum, LoCA dynamically selects the most informative frequency components during training. Experiments on diverse language and vision fine-tuning tasks demonstrate that LoCA offers enhanced parameter efficiency while maintains computational feasibility comparable to low-rank-based methods.

Data imbalance is a common factor hindering classifier performance. Data-level approaches for imbalanced learning, such as resampling, often lead to information loss or generative errors. Building on theoretical studies of imbalance ratio in binary classification, it is found that adding suitable label noise can adjust biased decision boundaries and improve classifier performance. This paper proposes the Label-Noise-based Re-balancing (LNR) approach to solve imbalanced learning by employing a novel design of an asymmetric label noise model. In contrast to other data-level methods, LNR alleviates the issues of informative loss and generative errors and can be integrated seamlessly with any classifier or algorithm-level method. We validated the superiority of LNR on synthetic and real-world datasets. Our work opens a new avenue for imbalanced learning, highlighting the potential of beneficial label noise.

Discovering dependence patterns between variables from observational data is a fundamental issue in data analysis. However, existing testing methods often fail to detect subtle yet critical patterns that occur within small regions of the data distribution--patterns we term rare dependence. These rare dependencies obscure the true underlying dependence structure in variables, particularly in causal discovery tasks. To address this issue, we propose a novel testing method that combines kernel-based (conditional) independence testing with adaptive sample importance reweighting. By learning and assigning higher importance weights to data points exhibiting significant dependence, our method amplifies the patterns and can detect them successfully. Theoretically, we analyze the asymptotic distributions of the statistics in this method and show the uniform bound of the learning scheme. Furthermore, we integrate our tests into the PC algorithm, a constraint-based approach for causal discovery, equipping it to uncover causal relationships even in the presence of rare dependence. Empirical evaluation of synthetic and real-world datasets comprehensively demonstrates the efficacy of our method.

Limited labeling budget severely impedes data-driven research, such as medical analysis, remote sensing and population census, and active inference is a solution to this problem. Prior works utilizing independent sampling have achieved improvements over uniform sampling, but its insufficient usage of available information undermines its statistical efficiency. In this paper, we propose balanced active inference, a novel algorithm that incorporates balanced constraints based on model uncertainty utilizing the cube method for label selection. Under regularity conditions, we establish its asymptotic properties and also prove that the statistical efficiency of the proposed algorithm is higher than its alternatives. Various numerical experiments, including regression and classification in both synthetic setups and real data analysis, demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms its alternatives while guaranteeing nominal coverage.

Recent booming time series models have demonstrated remarkable forecasting performance. However, these methods often place greater focus on more effectively modelling the historical series, largely neglecting the forecasting phase, which generates long-term forecasts by separately predicting multiple time points. Given that real-world time series typically consist of various long short-term dynamics, independent predictions over individual time points may fail to express complex underlying patterns and can lead to a lack of global views. To address these issues, this work explores new perspectives from the forecasting phase and proposes a novel Implicit Forecaster (IF) as an additional decoding module. Inspired by decomposition forecasting, IF adopts a more nuanced approach by implicitly predicting constituent waves represented by their frequency, amplitude, and phase, thereby accurately forming the time series. Extensive experimental results from multiple real-world datasets show that IF can consistently boost mainstream time series models, achieving state-of-the-art forecasting performance. Code is available at this repository: [https://github.com/rakuyorain/Implicit-Forecaster](https://github.com/rakuyorain/Implicit-Forecaster).

Personalized federated learning addresses data heterogeneity across distributed agents but lacks uncertainty quantification that is both agent-specific and instance-specific, which is a critical requirement for risk-sensitive applications. We propose personalized federated conformal prediction (PFCP), a novel framework that combines personalized federated learning with conformal prediction to provide statistically valid agent-personalized prediction sets with instance-localization. By leveraging privacy-preserving knowledge transfer from other source agents, PFCP ensures marginal coverage guarantees for target agents while significantly improving conditional coverage performance on individual test instances, which has been validated by extensive experiments.

The relative similarity testing aims to determine which of the distributions, $P$ or $Q$, is closer to an anchor distribution $U$. Existing kernel-based approaches often test the relative similarity with a fixed kernel in a manually specified alternative hypothesis, e.g., $Q$ is closer to $U$ than $P$. Although kernel selection is known to be important to kernel-based testing methods, the manually specified hypothesis poses a significant challenge for kernel selection in relative similarity testing: Once the hypothesis is specified first, we can always find a kernel such that the hypothesis is rejected. This challenge makes relative similarity testing ill-defined when we want to select a good kernel after the hypothesis is specified. In this paper, we cope with this challenge via learning a proper hypothesis and a kernel simultaneously, instead of learning a kernel after manually specifying the hypothesis. We propose an anchor-based maximum discrepancy (AMD), which defines the relative similarity as the maximum discrepancy between the distances of $(U, P)$ and $(U, Q)$ in a space of deep kernels. Based on AMD, our testing incorporates two phases. In Phase I, we estimate the AMD over the deep kernel space and infer the potential hypothesis. In Phase II, we assess the statistical significance of the potential hypothesis, where we propose a unified testing framework to derive thresholds for tests over different possible hypotheses from Phase I. Lastly, we validate our method theoretically and demonstrate its effectiveness via extensive experiments on benchmark datasets. Codes are publicly available at: https://github.com/tmlr-group/AMD.

To adapt kernel two-sample and independence testing to complex structured data, aggregation of multiple kernels is frequently employed to boost testing power compared to single-kernel tests. However, we observe a phenomenon that directly maximizing multiple kernel-based statistics may result in highly similar kernels that capture highly overlapping information, limiting the effectiveness of aggregation. To address this, we propose an aggregated statistic that explicitly incorporates kernel diversity based on the covariance between different kernels. Moreover, we identify a fundamental challenge: a trade-off between the diversity among kernels and the test power of individual kernels, i.e., the selected kernels should be both effective and diverse. This motivates a testing framework with selection inference, which leverages information from the training phase to select kernels with strong individual performance from the learned diverse kernel pool. We provide rigorous theoretical statements and proofs to show the consistency on the test power and control of Type-I error, along with asymptotic analysis of the proposed statistics. Lastly, we conducted extensive empirical experiments demonstrating the superior performance of our proposed approach across various benchmarks for both two-sample and independence testing.

Learning effective data representations has been crucial in non-parametric two-sample testing. Common approaches will first split data into training and test sets and then learn data representations purely on the training set. However, recent theoretical studies have shown that, as long as the sample indexes are not used during the learning process, the whole data can be used to learn data representations, meanwhile ensuring control of Type-I errors. The above fact motivates us to use the test set (but without sample indexes) to facilitate the data representation learning in the testing. To this end, we propose a representation-learning two-sample testing (RL-TST) framework. RL-TST first performs purely self-supervised representation learning on the entire dataset to capture inherent representations (IRs) that reflect the underlying data manifold. A discriminative model is then trained on these IRs to learn discriminative representations (DRs), enabling the framework to leverage both the rich structural information from IRs and the discriminative power of DRs. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RL-TST outperforms representative approaches by simultaneously using data manifold information in the test set and enhancing test power via finding the DRs with the training set.

Neural representations for 3D scenes have made substantial advancements recently, yet object removal remains a challenging yet practical issue, due to the absence of multi-view supervision over occluded areas. Diffusion Models (DMs), trained on extensive 2D images, show diverse and high-fidelity generative capabilities in the 2D domain. However, due to not being specifically trained on 3D data, their application to multi-view data often exacerbates inconsistency, hence impacting the overall quality of the 3D output. To address these issues, we introduce "In-N-Out", a novel approach that begins by inpainting a prior, i.e., the occluded area from a single view using DMs, followed by outstretching it to create multi-view inpaintings via latents alignments. Our analysis identifies that the variability in DMs' outputs mainly arises from initially sampled latents and intermediate latents predicted in the denoising process. We explicitly align of initial latents using a Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) to establish a consistent foundational structure in the inpainted area, complemented by an implicit alignment of intermediate latents through cross-view attention during the denoising phases, enhancing appearance consistency across views. To further enhance rendering results, we apply a patch-based hybrid loss to optimize NeRF. We demonstrate that our techniques effectively mitigate the challenges posed by inconsistencies in DMs and substantially improve the fidelity and coherence of inpainted 3D representations.

The task of distinguishing individuals of interest from a vast pool of candidates using predictive models has garnered significant attention in recent years. This task can be framed as a *conformalized multiple testing* procedure, which aims at quantifying prediction uncertainty by controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) via conformal inference. In this paper, we tackle the challenge of conformalized multiple testing after data-dependent selection procedures. To guarantee the construction of valid test statistics that accurately capture the distorted distribution resulting from the selection process, we leverage a holdout labeled set to closely emulate the selective distribution. Our approach involves adaptively picking labeled data to create a calibration set based on the stability of the selection rule. This strategy ensures that the calibration data and the selected test unit are exchangeable, allowing us to develop valid conformal p-values. Implementing with the famous Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure, it effectively controls the FDR over the selected subset. To handle the randomness of the selected subset and the dependence among the constructed p-values, we establish a unified theoretical framework. This framework extends the application of conformalized multiple testing to complex selective settings. Furthermore, we conduct numerical studies to showcase the effectiveness and validity of our procedures across various scenarios.