Unexpected stimuli induce "error" or "surprise" signals in the brain. The theory of predictive coding promises to explain these observations in terms of Bayesian inference by suggesting that the cortex implements variational inference in a probabilistic graphical model. However, when applied to machine learning tasks, this family of algorithms has yet to perform on par with other variational approaches in high-dimensional, structured inference problems. To address this, we introduce a novel predictive coding algorithm for structured generative models, that we call divide-and-conquer predictive coding (DCPC); it differs from other formulations of predictive coding, as it respects the correlation structure of the generative model and provably performs maximum-likelihood updates of model parameters, all without sacrificing biological plausibility. Empirically, DCPC achieves better numerical performance than competing algorithms and provides accurate inference in a number of problems not previously addressed with predictive coding. We provide an open implementation of DCPC in Pyro on Github.

We develop operators for construction of proposals in probabilistic programs, which we refer to as inference combinators. Inference combinators define a grammar over importance samplers that compose primitive operations such as application of a transition kernel and importance resampling. Proposals in these samplers can be parameterized using neural networks, which in turn can be trained by optimizing variational objectives. The result is a framework for user-programmable variational methods that are correct by construction and can be tailored to specific models. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework by implementing advanced variational methods based on amortized Gibbs sampling and annealing.

People struggle to invent safe passwords for many of their typical online activities, leading to a variety of security problems when they use overly simple passwords or reuse them multiple times with minor modifications. Having different passwords for each service generally requires password managers or memorable (but weak) passwords, introducing other vulnerabilities [1], [2]. Recent research [3], [4] has offered multiple alternatives but those require either rote memorisation [5] or computation on a physical device[6], [7]. This paper describes a secure and usable solution to this problem that requires no assistance from any physical device. We present the Cue-Pin-Select password family scheme that requires little memorisation and allows users to create and retrieve passwords easily. It uses our natural cognitive abilities to be durable, adaptable to different password requirements, and resistant to attacks, including ones involving plain-text knowledge of some passwords from the family. We include a theoretical analysis of its security according to multiple attack models. Finally, we show the promising results of a small-scale user study that put participants in real-life conditions for multiple days.

We develop amortized population Gibbs (APG) samplers, a class of scalable methods that frame structured variational inference as adaptive importance sampling. APG samplers construct high-dimensional proposals by iterating over updates to lower-dimensional blocks of variables. We train each conditional proposal by minimizing the inclusive KL divergence with respect to the conditional posterior. To appropriately account for the size of the input data, we develop a new parameterization in terms of neural sufficient statistics. Experiments show that APG samplers can be used to train highly-structured deep generative models in an unsupervised manner, and achieve substantial improvements in inference accuracy relative to standard autoencoding variational methods.

Neuroimaging studies produce gigabytes of spatio-temporal data for a small number of participants and stimuli. Recent work increasingly suggests that the common practice of averaging across participants and stimuli leaves out systematic and meaningful information. We propose Neural Topographic Factor Analysis (NTFA), a probabilistic factor analysis model that infers embeddings for participants and stimuli. These embeddings allow us to reason about differences between participants and stimuli as signal rather than noise. We evaluate NTFA on data from an in-house pilot experiment, as well as two publicly available datasets. We demonstrate that inferring representations for participants and stimuli improves predictive generalization to unseen data when compared to previous topographic methods. We also demonstrate that the inferred latent factor representations are useful for downstream tasks such as multivoxel pattern analysis and functional connectivity.